As I have said on other threads you have to ignore his Point form. The fact that he was able to beat much inferior horses on soft ground over 3miles tells us very little about his preferences. He was so superior in terms of ability that the conditions were all but irrelevant. The fact is that he has shown loads of speed in his races and, regardless of his background, has looked very much like he has the speed for 2m in my opinion. I'm sure he would stay 2m5f as well but if you ask me I'd prefer to have a Supreme winner anyway, and it looks the easier race, and therefore the sensible option, even if Henderson has previously suggested otherwise. The Morebattle will tell us more and it will be interesting to see who turns up to take him on. Henderson won't be running Binocular or Oscar Whisky and I would expect Simonsig to beat the rest of them. He will be weight adjusted top rated on official ratings (Marsh Warbler is 3lb higher but will have to give 4lbs if he runs) and he is top rated on RPR. Obviously all will be revealed in March. Interesting to see how differently people can think about the same race.
Im sure you know more than Me having visited Seven Barrows not long ago, I just think if Nicky Henderson thought he had the speed for a Supreme he'd have gone down that route more so this year and not racing above 2 miles. I think in the back of his mind he sees him as a stayer and probably had the Neptune in his head all along but he ran into a better horse at Sandown and now hes got the dilemma of weather to tackle him again or go for the Supreme, Im saying the Neptune is aimed for the staying type but Istabraq won this race before becoming the best hurdler of all time so who knows what Simonsig's true distance is just yet. I think there both tough races and I couldn't choose a winner of the Supreme if My life depended on it wereas I see the Neptune at this moment in time as a two horse race Fingal Bay/Boston Bob...
Morebattle Hurdle - http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546901&r_date=2012-02-15#raceTabs=sc_ Certainly no penalty kick but you would hope that he could win and win well. Really looking forward to it. Already re-arranged my Supervision which was re-arranged from Friday so I can watch!
Quite an interesting little heat Zen - a very decent yardstick in there in Marsh Warbler (although he would want it softer) and the Gollings horse looked very good early last season before disappointing a tad, although he did finish 10 lengths 8th in the Triumph behind Zarkander. What to read into him running here rather than Newbury or Ascot over 2 miles? I would tend to think the yard believe him to be a Neptune horse and would like to see him win this off a good pace. If they thought he was a Supreme horse surely he would've been in one of the 2 mile contests? He should get a nice lead from Marsh Warbler tomorrow and I expect Simonsig and Local Hero to be patiently ridden and come to have a go at Marsh Warbler 2 out. I expect Simonsig to be too strong and can see him winning handsomely by 6 - 8 lengths but surely that will mean him bound for the Neptune?
I think it a very interesting heat Oddy. I quite like it actually because it should be very informative without quite revealing the whole story. I would also agree that the 2m2f trip seems a slightly strange choice. I suppose the fact that it is a reasonable race means it should be more insightful. Similarly, the 2m2f trip could tell them which way to go but there is a risk that it might tell them nothing at all. Really looking forward to it. The article in the Telegraph read as follows: "Simonsig is sharing favouritism, at 8-1, with some firms for the Supreme Novicesâ Hurdle, but the trainer is still open-minded about the geldingâs Cheltenham target. The Neptune has not been ruled out entirely. âIâm hoping the two and a quarter miles at Kelso will tell us more. Heâs a point-to-point winner [over 3m], yet at home he doesnât work like a two-and-a-half-mile horse. He looks like a two-miler. At Sandown last time he looked like he was going to beat the other horse [Fingal Bay] very easily, but he didnât. Whether he didnât get home, I donât know. But this will help us decide [on a target], I hope,â Henderson said." I think the issue that they are having is that he came across as a 3m Point winner, owned by the sponsor of the Albert Bartlett. As such he was labelled as a stayer before they, or anyone else, had really got a handle on him. It quickly became apparent that he was no plodder and the 3m Potato Race was ruled out. It therefore seemed logical that the Neptune, over the intermediate trip, would be the obvious target. However, it appears that he has the pace for the minimum trip too, resulting in the present dilemma. His racecourse evidence would suggest that the Supreme would be a realistic target and I know that he works very well at Seven Barrows. I suspect that if he had arrived with no reputation and no evidence to the contrary, he would have never run over further than 2m and would be Supreme bound. The fact that he has proven he stays further than 2m, despite his pace, means they are left with something of a dilemma.
Hopefully we'll know a bit more tomorrow evening Zen. If he wins and they go the Supreme route I assume Geraghty will chose him, I hope they don't put Tinkler on Tetlami in that case - I'd much rather see David Bass on board.
I would guess BG would be on Simonsig wherever he goes yes. Let us assume he goes for the Supreme for a minute . . . Simonsig - Barry Geraghty Darlan - AP McCoy Tetlami - ? Bass rode him at Sandown so you might be in luck. Henderson then has the likes of Fourth Estate, Mono Man, Molotof and All The Aces to consider. They can't all go to the Supreme so some will go to the handicaps, probably All The Aces. Molotof would go to the Neptune I would think. Mono Man might not even run at all. He hasn't been seen since November and has no entries at the moment. No idea about Fourth Estate.
I'm sure I've mentioned this already but Barry Geraghty will be in the marquee I go to pre racing Tue and Wed so I should get the views/expectations from the yard, unfortunately this will be at 12.30 and I'll have no means of letting anyone in here know....
Ladbrokes are first to price up the race and have Simonsig brutally short. 4/9 Simonsig 5/1 Knockara Beau 11/2 Marsh Warbler 16/1 Local Hero 25/1 Orsippus 50/1 Little Hercules I was hoping for around the Evens mark . . . Nightmare. Last (and only) price matched on Betfair was 1.41.
Imagine it was last year Grizzly: "Lot of confidence behind Spirit Son. Finian's Rainbow will take all the beating. Caroles Legacy will go close. Oscar Whiskey might grab a place" Would've been good for the placepot
Local Hero at 16/1 e/w - I can't believe Marsh Warbler will go well on the ground and the others don't look good enough. Simonsig to beat Local Hero
Knockara Beau looks a horrendous price for a horse that wants at least 3m. I thought 11/2 Marsh Warbler looked fair considering he is officially the best in the field. The ground won't be quick either, a slight negative for Simonsig. I was planning a decent bet on him but I couldn't justify it at the prices. Much rather back him at 8/1+ for Cheltenham. I will however be ready to hoover up the prices on Betfair should he win!
Sporting Life have it as Good-soft Zen - I'd say Marsh Warbler wants Soft-Heavy to be seen at his best (and run anywhere near his mark). He was good in the Ladbroke (not quite good enough as I had backed him e/w ) and good behind Celestial Halo - both on heavy. But he was poor behind Palawi at Musselburgh and poorish behind Grandouet at Haydock, both on livelier going. If it really is Good -soft I fancy the Gollings horse to chase your fella home and might well do the Exacta
He must surely go for the Neptune now? Yes he won and it looked easy in the end but looks one paced to Me could have gone round again if asked, Certainly needs a step up in trip for Me there are far speedier horse's in the Supreme and He'll be found out if Nicky sends him there and anyway Tetlami is heading for the Supreme get Geraghty on both for the Supreme/Neptune. That Weld horse Galileo's Choice on the otherhand looked the real deal today, Won comfortably on the bridle just had a couple of quid on him for the Supreme at 10/1...
I think alot will depend on what other ammo the yard has in each race. They definitely have Tetlami and Darlan for the supreme (barring accidents) whereas they look a bit thin in the Neptune - Molotof should be out this weekend I believe. You'd have to say Broadbackbob doesn't look good enough so if Molotof flops they may be left without a genuine challenger in the Neptune. This may sway them to send Simonsig to that race.
The horse looks more suited to the Neptune The relative strength of the Neptune field looks a cut above that of the Supreme What will they do? The mind boggles...
got to be the neptune for me, yes it is a far stronger affair but cannot see him having a chance in the supreme, gonna be interesting to see if BJG gets his way
Zen, just my personal take on the races and the way i have seen them go mate. I am still of the opinion that he can give Fingal Bay a better race as that fav prefers softer going. Personally there are more horses that can beat him in the Supreme than there is in the Neptune mate an to me despite having pace he looks a stayer through and through but that's merely my thinking mate.
