Training also has the advantage of nobody trying to clatter players when they're out there ...except, based on various suggestions, for players at teams managed by Graeme Souness
So, a third of the PL season gone, and Spurs are +7 pts on the "like for like" . Or effectively two more wins and one more draw per 13 games. IMHO that is a modest expectation on improvement, and would see a finish on 80 pts.
PL (like for like with 2019-20 after 17 games) : Pts = 2, GF = 5, GA = -2. Leeds paired with Bournemouth on the like for like.
PL (like for like with 2019-20 after 18 games) : Pts = 2, GF = 5, GA = -2. Fulham paired with Watford on the like for like.
Half-term review time ... HTR1) PL So we come to the effective midway point of the PL season (done so as god knows when the Villa away game will be played) . Statistical "key performance indicators" (KPI) that have high correlation with a team that finishes PL top 4 are : 1. GA in the 30s 2. GD in the 30s 3. Win at least half the away games So on that basis, the "season compass" end of season projection is : - Pts = 69 - GA = 39 - GD = 36 - away wins = 10 All the projected measures are in line with the KPIs (GA barely ) . The question is whether a total of 69 pts will be enough to finish 4th. The Corona chaos of last season meant the total was 66, but unclear as to whether it have a similar effect in lowering the required total. HTR2) Cups Europa league : last 32 (seeded) . League cup : finalists. FA cup : R4. Nothing better that could be done on these fronts other than better results in some EL games (and hence more UEFA ranking pts) . HTR3) Way forward Other than Jose showing much better squad management, the PL defence needs to tighten up a bit more. The cup competitions are now on a per-opponent basis (depending on the fixture draws) . I do not believe that the EL group stage starting XIs can carry Spurs to the QF stage, without needing a fair amount of the strongest PL starting XIs included.
Last season there were only 12 PL matches where Lloris, Kane and Son played most of the game. We got 24 points in those matches, that is exactly 2 points a match. In most of those matches Winks and Sissoko played in midfield. When any of Lloris, Kane and Son didn’t play we got 35 points from 26 games. Only about 1.35 points per game. This year, Lloris, Kane and Son have played most of the match in all our PL games. We’ve got 33 points from 18 matches. So we are slightly worse than last year. The main difference in personnel from last year is that Hojbjerg has also played all of them, usually instead of Sissoko or Winks. So there is no evidence that Hojbjerg is am upgrade at all. Interestingly, from those players who have started more than half the matches, the one who has the biggest positive impact is Ndombele who is averaging nearly 2.1 points per match and the biggest negative impact is Aurier, who is on 1.6 points.