Saturday Racing Thread

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Its an unrealistic book because its not far off 100%, I had him down as a shade odds on but 11/10 is fair. If I was a bookie I wouldnt lay any bigger, id take plenty action on the others tho at those odds. Serious Arc horse, couldn't say that about any of the others.

DOW effectively won a group 3 last time and was easily beaten by Famous Name last year, his form looks a million miles off what you should need to win an Eclipse, 7/2 is absurd and based on who trains him.

The Fugue has decent form for a filly but showed at Ascot she is always going to be a few lengths behind a top male, always been an excuse horse and she dosent deserve to win an Eclipse, sure she will be running when its too late as usual and might get a place.

Mars is a decent horse, you could make excuses for him in a weak Derby but he wouldnt have won anyway, you seen what he was last time, a couple lengths off it, even if the trip was shorter than ideal I dont think he is a top Group 1 horse, both Dawn Approach and Toronado would beat him the same over 1m2.

Mukhadram is improving but if he couldnt beat Al Kazeem the way the race went at Ascot, I dont see how he is going to beat him here on a track that is more suitable to Al Kazeem.

Pastorius is a good horse, but will apparently be ridden for a place and I am pretty sure ive overrated the Maxios form anyway, the ground is going to be faster than he is proven on too so I think a place is the best he can hope for.

Obviously nothing is a cert, but the others need Al Kazeem to underperform to have any chance imo.
 
The Master of Glesga said:
Its an unrealistic book because its not far off 100%, I had him down as a shade odds on but 11/10 is fair. If I was a bookie I wouldnt lay any bigger, id take plenty action on the others tho at those odds. Serious Arc horse, couldn't say that about any of the others.

DOW effectively won a group 3 last time and was easily beaten by Famous Name last year, his form looks a million miles off what you should need to win an Eclipse, 7/2 is absurd and based on who trains him.

The Fugue has decent form for a filly but showed at Ascot she is always going to be a few lengths behind a top male, always been an excuse horse and she dosent deserve to win an Eclipse, sure she will be running when its too late as usual and might get a place.

Mars is a decent horse, you could make excuses for him in a weak Derby but he wouldnt have won anyway, you seen what he was last time, a couple lengths off it, even if the trip was shorter than ideal I dont think he is a top Group 1 horse, both Dawn Approach and Toronado would beat him the same over 1m2.

Mukhadram is improving but if he couldnt beat Al Kazeem the way the race went at Ascot, I dont see how he is going to beat him here on a track that is more suitable to Al Kazeem.

Pastorius is a good horse, but will apparently be ridden for a place and I am pretty sure ive overrated the Maxios form anyway, the ground is going to be faster than he is proven on too so I think a place is the best he can hope for.

Obviously nothing is a cert, but the others need Al Kazeem to underperform to have any chance imo.
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Good analysis of the race and I still can't believe Al Kazeem is 9/4 at the moment. Biggest bet on him for a while so I hope you're right MOG!!
 
campo said:
I would expect the Eclipse to go to Pastorius, The Fugue or Al Kazeem, dependent on which has improved the most.
A line through Dunaden gives Pasrorius a decent chance against Al Kazeem etc (see postings on Eclipse thread including response to QuarterMoonII ).
Al Kazeem looks good this year.
Gosden's record of improving horses from 3 yrs to 4 yrs gives hope.
Aren't German 3 yr old horses generally considered to be less mature than their British/French counterparts back home & expected to improve at 4 yrs (Any views OddDog?)
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Pastorius carrying my sheckels campo. Not sure whether there is a general trend of German horses improving significantly from 3 to 4 and you have to hope his showing in Singapore was just an off day. His form before that race should really see him vying for favouritism so there is plenty of value in his price for me <ok>
 
Hi OddDog.
Thanks for the reply. There was an interview on the morning line where they stated that Pastorius picked up an injury during the race in Singapore which is why they eased him off. Apparently over it now & hopeful of a good run.
Fingers crossed.
 
Doyle gets Pythagorean beat yet again, disgraceful rides on it last twice and has cost the punters a fortune, 5/1 into 9/4 last time, 3/1 into 15/8 today and twice hes managed to get the jailcase beat.
 
Can't see past al kazeem in the eclipse. Good analysis from boris and I'd pretty much agree with every word!

2.05 sandown bungle inthejungle looks overpriced to me at 12s. Shane there are only 7 runners
 
First winner of the day :) Definitely a front running track those even 2 lengths off the pace just cant catch the leaders.
 
Bostonbob said:
I think he's the most likely winner but a few of you are writing off the field too readily. That was a tough race LTO. I think 9/4 is right and there's no value in it at the moment.
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Had to be backed at 3-1 though didn't it!
The Fugue a big danger today but far from a vintage renewal.
 
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