Im not having a bet in the race myself, but I'd say 11/4 is a fair price. You have to remember who connections are, and the form the AOB team have been in, plus he has the advantage of a run under his belt. If Frankel does under perform, then Excelbeation will more than likely be the one to take advantage. You also must remember the bookies can't push him out further, because he looks an EW certainty
Is he he an EW banker? Strong Suit is a very good horse if the ground isn't too bad. I can understand why he isn't an EW price but are you seriously suggesting that he would beat Frankel more than 1 in 4?! It's not even anywhere close to his true price IMO.
If your going to do e/w on Excelebration- you would be better doing a straight f/c with Frankel and him!
Just so we don't forget, Frankel has met Excelebration three times before. He has been beaten a total of 10 1/4 lengths. I was not intending to have a bet but the market is so cocked up that I feel compelled to. If you are looking to take Frankel on (Why? I'm not) then I would have thought that 9/1 EW 3 places on Strong Suit makes more appeal than 11/4 on Excelebration.
Zenyatta, there are unlikely to be three places in the betting on Saturday as So You Think is a no-show unless something happens to Frankel, so each-way punters need to get on ante post. When Frankel had his injury scare, it stopped me shelling out £70 on a train ticket. When the injury scare turned out to be a false alarm, I managed to get a ticket for £62. How come they were getting cheaper nearer the day? Unless something is amiss with Frankel, Excelebration has no chance unless he has improved enormously over the winter, but that is no reason for not running - it is a race and they are horses. Frankel 7/4 to remain unbeaten in 2012 must be the bookies hoping that he switches to ten furlongs and that Camelot is a wonder horse that does not stay twelve furlongs and takes him on.
7/4 to remain unbeaten looks a reasonable bet to me. Less than the odds against BB going unbeaten but attarctive for a number of reasons. Preserving his unbeaten record is paramount to connections.That has to be stated. His only viable opponent on Saturday has 10lb's to find and has been easily beaten 4l on each occasion he has faced Frankel. Connections have no intention on taking on international challenges. His first attempt at 10f will be at York against a small field..The Knavesmire is as flat as Kiera Knightly and Black Cavier could get 10f there. 7/4 is a knocking bet...there is simply not a horse on the horizon to get near him...and if by chance there was,outside these shores,it would be avoided like the plague. Lump on!
Why would anyone back a horse at 10/1 at 20% of the odds. £100e/w at a place returns £300 and the total outlay of the stake is £200...1/2 in effect since a win is out of the question. Rather back Frankel with must less risk and similar return..especially since only two places may be available. I'm not looking outside the winner for value since as this point proves,there isn't any. Frankel at 2/5 is better bet than backing horses 2st "out of the h'cap"
I wouldn't be tempted whatsoever with the 7/4 about Frankel going unbeaten, particularly when I got 3/1 about Big Bucks, and I'd say Big Bucks is more bomb proof in his division than Frankel is, particularly with that clown of a jockey on his back.* No one knows how Frankel has been over the winter, no one knows how he will fair as a 4yo conceeding weight to the 3yos. Where as last year he was getting 8 pounds from horse's like Canford Cliffs, this year he could be conceeding 8 pounds to the likes of Camelot.* I'm not saying he won't be able to, but 7/4 to win what is likely to be atleast a 5 race campaign doesn't look like a value bet to me. Though we all have our own views on what is value*
Correct Ron. I forgot about the SJP where the deficit was 2.75L. Hard to imagine Excel will bridge that gap. It is unlikely Frankel will be as fully wound up as he was when winning the Guineas,arguably his main target last season. He will,however,be ready enough for what will be another lightish campaign where he can have a training hiatus on a few occasions. Don't see any threat on Saturday to a horse that could easily have improved even more than those he has already conquered.
I feel I have been misquoted here but the point is that a) why take Frankel on? and b) if you are, is 9/1 Strong Suit with 3 places (there are 3 places at the moment) not a better alternative? I am not saying it is necessarily a good one but I struggle to understand the support for Excelebration at 11/4 and shorter. As for 7/4 to remain unbeaten, I don't think that is likely to be a value price at all. I think we worked out that even the 3/1 about Big Buck's ended up poor in the end because an accumulator on all his races would have yielded a better return.
If you have not seen the interview with Sir Henry that was released yesterday, you can watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VjdrKEPcsc
what does everyone think about a possible Frankel v Black Caviar race in the Sussex Stakes? that really would be incredible, probably the greatest race ever staged at Goodwood. being realistic it is unlikely to happen I suppose but it would be the best thing to happen to flat racing in years if it did!
Sure would Steveo,but like yourself I don't think they will ever meet on a racecourse...they might bump into each other in the covering shed at a later date.
Can you imagine the foal they will produce!! Will be some horse Will need to be called like Black Frankie lol
Black Caviar’s trainer Peter Moody said earlier this year that he was “quite bullish” about the prospect of Black Caviar taking on Frankel but would look at and further races for the mare once she gets to England. He still thinks 10f is not beyond her. "Don't take her overseas, stay here for the Cox Plate," Boss said to Luke Nolen as they crossed paths following the C.F Orr Stakes. Boss rode Makybe Dive, so has some idea on what it might take. Senior part-owner Neil Werrett said he would love the challenge and wouldn't be shirking the issue. But of late the stable has said that the mile over the undulating course might not be in her best interests if she has to take on Frankel. They'd need a more friendly course.
The thing with the Sussex is that everything would be in Frankel's favour - distance, track experience, etc. Let's not forget that some horses just don't handle Goodwood. They'd be better off putting on a good old fashioned match race on a flat, galloping track. The Match Book is still in existence, though lord knows what the last race entered in it is! It would have been Montjeu v Dubai Millennium, had events transpired.
