Yeah fair shout..I don't bet ante post but if I was I would personally back Samcro with the chance of winning £164.00. Would make me really look forward to the race...long season to go and anything can happen between now and March..
Betting ante-post is about imagining the field and market on the day of the race. Probably very few think that Samcro can reverse form with Buveur D'air but then which horse actually can beat Buveur D'air? Local people laughed at me when I said I felt Buveur D'air could go off 4/6 again on Champion Hurdle day but it looks much more likely that he could do now. If that is the case, then who will fill the places? Buveur D'air may scare off much of the opposition in a race where there is so much deadwood in the market. Silly quotes about no-hopers who will not run and I could see it being a really small field this season. It is simply a case that Samcro may yet emerge as the biggest threat to Buveur D'air. Melon has not impressed me really to be honest. His second to a below peak looking Buveur D'air in the Champion probably flatters him. It was a personal best on form and some way ahead of most of his other form. Laurina is a good way below Buveur D'air and I think Ruby Walsh was taking liberties and trying to convince himself as much as any of the listeners when he stated that 7 lbs of improvement in Laurina would put her right in the the Champion Hurdle picture. I believe that Buveur D'air would leave Laurina like a torn 5p Chinese Lantern blowing about in the Cheltenham soil if she does take him on. 4's and 5's for her is appalling value. If people want to talk about backing something that could actually win, they need to be dismissing Laurina from their minds. Nicky Henderson said he was surprised that Buveur D'air won so well today, simply because he knew how much the horse could improve from today's race. He is the one beacon of true quality we have but nobody seemed to want to take the 5/2 available for the Champion Hurdle. That is the trouble with the mentality of not backing at such a price, because you are staring down the barrels of odds on in the aftermath of a success. He is shorter now than he was for just today's race and in these situations punters usually end up scraping about for each-way value against the favourite on the day of the race. The trouble may well be that Samcro starts appealing as an each-way alternative but is well shorter than the current 12/1 with Coral. I would think a win in his next race and any weakness from the 2nd and 3rd on the betting will see him shrink back.
