Saturday: Cesarewitch Daily Thread

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TopClass

TopClass

Well-Known Member
Jun 22, 2011
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2.20 CHRISTOFORO COLOMBO- Can't believe he was 5/1 earlier and is still 4s. I think 3/1 would be more than fair and I expect him to go off 5/2 tomorrow. High class horse, excellent form tie with DAWN APPROACH and OLYMPIC GLORY and he has the class to see off Reckless Abandon, who whilst talented remains too quirky for me.


2.55 is there for Dawn Approach to take but when you consider Frankel went off 4/6 in his Dewhurst, 4/11 on Dawn Approach does not appeal one bit. A watching brief.



I hate handicaps like the Cesarewitch as there are more sinister plots and paranoia than there is in Eastenders. On that note though, ICON DREAM 33/1 deserves a race like this as much as anyone and has the class to make his presence felt. The ground will suit him and he is a big, big player at ridiculous odds. Has to shrug off some lesser efforts, but I suspect he will be primed for this.




The jumps season sees FINGAL BAY return and make his debut over fences. Very exciting and I do think he ought to win at 4/6, though I don't know what to think in terms of his season as a whole. Will be good to see how he jumps.


ROYAL CHARM 12/1 (NAP) is so ridiculously handicapped with Harry Derhams 7lb claim that I think he could potentially hose up fresh in the first time cheekpieces. He is sure to make an impact off this sort of mark sooner rather than later and I think he will be ready to roll tomorrow.
 
TopClass said:
ROYAL CHARM 12/1 (NAP) is so ridiculously handicapped with Harry Derhams 7lb claim that I think he could potentially hose up fresh in the first time cheekpieces. He is sure to make an impact off this sort of mark sooner rather than later and I think he will be ready to roll tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Still has to give 10lb to the improving Kitegen though Toppy. I agree with your view on DA
 
1.50 Newmarket. Fencing.
Steps back to seven furlongs and should make his presence felt .

3.35 Newmarket. Hurricane Higgins (Nap).
Ran a great race in the Doncaster Cup with Goodwood Cup winner Saddler's Rock behind him. Handicapper has not had the chance to reassess him and he runs off the same mark of 99- which gives him an outstanding chance.

4.05 Newmarket. Gift From Heaven.
A very easy first time out winner who can go close here for David Wachman.

4.40 Newmarket. Galileo Rock.(NB).
Another David Wachman two year old who hacked up against subsequent winner, Hall Of Mirrors.

4.10 Chepstow. Salpierre. (EW)
Ran really well last time until lack of condition told over three out. Significant that Jonjo O'Neill uses 7lb claimer, Maurice Linehan- instead of Tony McCoy.

Suggested Bet..EW Lucky 31 (62 bets)
 
Newm 2.20 Reckless Abandon 2/1

Newm 4.40 Trading Leather 5/2

Two absolute stonecold goodthings.

Take the 25s Trading Leather for the Derby.
 
TopClass said:
I hate handicaps like the Cesarewitch as there are more sinister plots and paranoia than there is in Eastenders. On that note though, ICON DREAM 33/1 deserves a race like this as much as anyone and has the class to make his presence felt. The ground will suit him and he is a big, big player at ridiculous odds. Has to shrug off some lesser efforts, but I suspect he will be primed for this.
Click to expand...

Buick on board for Goldie absolutely leaped off the page at me. The race is an absolute minefield and I've had a small dabble on this one and Ermyn Lodge 40/1 as he's clearly been trained for this race for the last year after finishing 2nd in it last year off a 3lb lower mark (does have a 1lb lower racing weight this year). A case could be made for half the field so only small stakes.
 
Really excited to see how Galileo Rock runs tomorrow as I think he has the potential to be an absolute beast. However, I'm not sure how great a betting proposition he is tomorrow as 1m is his absolute minimum and this could easily be his last race over this trip. A 3/4 brother to Saddler's Rock, David Wachman's 2 year old made an extremely impressive debut when blitzing the field at Leopardstown over this trip on what was surely unsuitably soft ground by 7L, beating Hall of Mirrors who has since won very well on Nursery debut off a mark of 87. Wachman clearly wouldn't be wasting his time coming over here if he didn't think he could win but he faces a nice bunch who will probably be more at home over a mile than he is. If he wins this he is undoubtedly the horse to beat in the Derby in my eyes but regardless of what happens tomorrow I really think this horse has the makings of a monster.
 
5 picks at Chepstow for the comp:

1.55 Handazan - good flat form with cut in the ground and Alan King reports him to be hurdling fluently on the gallops
2.25 Boyfromnowhere - won't be easy giving weight to the Nicholls and Hobbs runners but has race fitness on his side and should come on massively for his seasonal debut
3.40 Ubaltique - I think Hinterland may be slightly flattered by his official rating and might just struggle to give Don McCain's runner 11lbs today. Ubaltique was pitched straight into a grade 2 on debut so they clearly think quite a bit about him and I think he could give his trainer a pleaant surprise today.
4.10 Carrigmorna King - jumped off the page at me this morning, ran some good races against top class novices last season and deservedly got his head in front in January. Subsequently not disgraced in a Grade 3 behind Ambion Wood and 127 looks a decent mark for his handicap debut
4.45 Golden Chieftain - could be one to follow in staying handicap chases this season and the yard is in good form at the moment.

Not a betting proposition but I am really looking forward to seeing Fingal Bay tackle fences today. Always looked a chasing type and not surprising to see him already quoted at 10/1 for the RSA.

Best of luck to everyone <ok>
 
David Redvers on the morning line, came out with a couple of strange statements, the first being that "Moohaajim has loads less miles on the clock than Reckless Abandon" Reckless Abandon has only had 4 runs against Moohaajim's 3, alright, he was out two months earlier but he was still green at Ascot and 2 months and 1 run dosent really justify the statement. The second was that the "Mill Reef is the best 2yo form around" a statement that rightly imo stunned Nick Luck, Jim McGrath and Mcririck, the horse who finished second was beaten by Fantastic Moon who on the day was value for alot more than the winning margin and went on to be beaten 5 lengths by the plodder Steeler. The 3rd was a once raced winner of a half decent maiden who looks more of a long term project, the 3rd and 4rth Cay Verde and Heavy Metal are group 3 at the very best and have had both had long seasons running in tough races, debatable wether they ran to the best they had shown previously and the 5th Cougar Ridge of David Wachman's, beaten 6 1/2 by Moohaajim, went on to be beaten 5 1/4 on his next run in a Dundalk listed race, Lucky Beggar finished 2nd last and went on to run a decent race in the Cornwallis but he went out like a light and its safe to assume he did not run his race on the day.

Im not for one second saying Moohaajim cant win today, of course he can, its a 2yo race, he is improving and he only has a couple of lengths to find with Reckless Abandon but those two statements seemed absurd to me and if I had just let this guy spend 2 1/2 million on an unraced horse for me I would be worried. Maybe he should leave the form to its students and stick to looking at unraced stallion prospects.
 
Small fancy for Thr Friary in the bumper at Hexham today, this from Lucinda Russell's website:

"Finally The Friary makes his debut for us having recorded a good rating when winning his Irish point to point. He is a long striding chasing type who should be suited by the track."
 
Stormy Weather can win the Ceaserewitch at 40/1.

Think the middle park stakes is a cracker
 
Morning / Afternoon all - hope everyone is well. Not posted for a while but got the laptop free now !!! Still have look at the posts nearly most days in my lunch hour and notice certain things dont change much with some people haha. SBC still harps on about "Broken Britain" under this wonderful coalition of ours and blames Labour for the last 13 or so years (Boring same old same old) and how Nicky the Needle Henderson is the forum's favourite trainer !!! A cracking day of racing today over both codes as we enter the twilight of the flat season. I see priceswise's 2 for the Ces are ante-post Countrywide Flame (now 8s 365 ) and Montaser if anyone is interested. Good luck all !!!
 
CHALLENGE

As the York placepot card currently has 36 non runners, Is soft/heavy in places, it's fair to assume it will pay a big dividend.
so i challenge anyone to get it up in under 30 perms, whitout including any favourites

Here is mine.

1/ pearl blue, kaldoun kingdom
2/ chapter seven
3/ royal rascal, lucky beggar
4/ sirius prospect, dungganon, colonel mac
5/ lancelot du lac, grayswood
6/ cape tribulation

good luck all who play.
 
One from David Redvers on the Morning Line which I recorded and am watching now. Pearl Mix in the 1.50 15/2. Last time he was on he mentioned New Pearl which obliged at 7/2 so it might be worth heeding what he says.
 
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