Looking at the card at HQ, it seems almost inconceivable that Ballydoyle does not have a short priced favourite on the card. Is that a measure of what a mediocre season it has been for the yard responsible for the best bluebloods in Europe? In the absence of a Coolmore hotpot, just a couple of Godolphin ones.
Possibly the best chance of a Ballydoyle win comes in the Zetland Stakes(1:45) with Bluegrass, who made all over a mile last time after doing nothing on debut. Also over from the Emerald Isle is Unconquerable, who has not lived up to his name winning only a small Naas maiden in six starts but was third in the Royal Lodge last time and has the services of Frankie again. Charlie Appleby is making this one difficult by running two: Goldspur strung out a nine runner field at Sandown on soft ground on his only start and James Doyle is aboard again whilst the expensive Hafit landed the odds on debut but was beaten in a four runner Listed race when odds on, but holds third Dukebox on that form. If I were certain that Goldspur does not have to get his toe in, he would be the choice but I will just watch.
I backed the Royal Lodge winner but the runner up Coroebus clearly tied up in front that day having been sent into a big lead. He is justifiably odds on over the same course and distance, taking a drop in grade for the Autumn Stakes (2:20) and the form of the Royal Lodge may have been boosted in the Zetland Stakes by the third.
It is little surprise that Native Trail is odds on for the Dewhurst (2:55) as he put up clearly the best performance by a juvenile so far this term when winning the National Stakes. There is little reason to believe that Dhabab, beaten by the favourite in the Superlative Stakes, will reverse that form so the main threat may come from Straight Answer, the Irish raider added to the field after scorching home in a 6f Listed race at Fairyhouse.
Doubtless by Monday the burghers of Timeform will have come up with some ridiculous assessments just like they did last week after Longchamp, where everything suddenly seemed to have improved 10lb on soft ground.
The Cesarewitch betting appears to be dominated by a load of slow old plodders from the usual suspects like Willie Mullins (6 runners), Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Donald McCain, so I think I will give it a miss. A mate of mine has done Platform Nineteen each way ante post at twice the current odds.
The Boadicea Stakes (4:10) looks like the only betting race on the card. The top rated in the race, Scarlet Bear, was placed twice in Group 3 races as a juvenile, changed yard over the winter and won first time up back in April but has not been seen since. Adaay To Remember has placed in all five of her starts, third in the Listed Hopeful Stakes most recently, just a head behind reliable old boy Tabdeed. Chocoya comes seeking a hat-trick after winning two six runner affairs, one at Salisbury and last time at Chelmsford on the kitty litter under today’s jockey; however, preference is for the other hat-trick seeker, the mare GALE FORCE MAYA, who was third in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon but subsequently won at Pontefract and beat Gellhorn in a course and distance handicap last time when claimer ridden but is 6lb better off today. Michael Dods is known for improving his sprinters and she is definitely going the right direction.
What puts me off the York card is the going. Their last meeting of the season and the one that I like the look of is in the last race. In Richard Fahey’s Sporting Life column, it is the last horse that he mentions, rated 94 that probably makes him one of the top twenty rated horses in the yard, Spirit Dancer was less than a length second at Chester a month ago after more than two months off; and looks capable of giving weight all round. If it dries up a lot by 5:00, I might have a look at it...
