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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 6th. June 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jun 5, 2020.

  1. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Shout, Grendel! <ok>
     
    #81
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  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Al Suhail is 20/1 for the Derby. Are they taking the piss or what?
     
    #82
  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    That was the fastest 2000 Guineas ever. Pennekamp's record has gone. So much for the rain and no track records.
     
    #83
  4. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Pleased for Make Believe (sire of Mishriff) as I think his Dad (Makfi) is a most underrated sire and racehorse for that matter. Can't see Mishriff winning the Derby though. 10f looks ideal.
     
    #84
  5. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    18:35 Lyon-Parilly: Mango Baron

    (Decent chance in this hurdle event, overall form seems to match-up well. Ground will be soft, so the small weight allowance of the young claiming jockey will help a bit. 7/1 seems to be the best price atm, don't think eventual SP will be quite that much?)

    Edit: Very disappointing, ran a poor race and finished only 5th. Time for me to take a break, for sure! :emoticon-0101-sadsm
     
    #85
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2020
  6. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Apparently 1/8 of an inch of rain up until midday. Hardly affected it I should think after 2 months of drought.
     
    #86
  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Ive been struggling to actually find Kamekos winning time, its mainly just people parroting a falsehood that he broke the track record without stating the time.

    Thankfully Nick Luck posted the actual time of 1.34.72, 1/3rd of second slower than Maries Diamond listed win yesterday.

    He only has the fastest 2000 Guineas, the previous holder of that title Pennekamp wasnt even in the top 40 times for the course and distance.

    This is the age of twitter after all where people take sound bytes or headlines and run with them without doing their homework.

    Eagle Mountain holds the course record at 1:34.07 with his win in the Joel Stakes so yeah, no track records today as predicted, so much for it, not even close.

    Despite Kameko being slower than Maries Diamond yesterday, its a better time relative to the rest of the races on the day, the ground was lightening quick yesterday with a strong tailwind, the rain took the sting out of it today but the wind has kept it relatively quick and the tailwind is still assisting them.

    Overall times in UK racing are not worth much due to the uniqueness of the courses and style of racing, a time has to be judged relative to the day it was achieved.

    Baataash beat Dayjurs record at York but relative to the rest of the days times it was nowhere near as impressive as Dayjurs, it was just ridiculously fast ground, the equivalent races were running 2 seconds faster than on the day Dayjur set the record.

    Eagle Mountains record doesnt mean much, it was an out and out Group 3 performance but the conditions just happened to be conducive for fast times.
     
    #87
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2020
  8. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I thought he got him a little unbalanced at a critical time and wasnt fluent changing his whip hand but not sure it would have made too much difference.
     
    #88
  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    The class 3 handicap winner after the Guineas just beat Pennekamps time.

    Hence the pinch of salt needed for final times in our racing.

    In america where there is consistent surfaces on identical track layouts with consistent strong early paces, overall times are more noteworthy imo, here they are just a tidbit.
     
    #89
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  10. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Watching the race, I thought that Pinatubo was going to struggle to win when Buick started pushing him at The Dip, at which point Wichita was already ahead of him. I do not think that he ran to his 128 rating today and the fact that the winner broke the race record was down to the tail wind as much as it being a strongly run race. Whilst this may throw up some winners, I am not sure that it will be looked back on as a great race as the winner will only race over further now.

    Reportedly Frankie said that Wichita emptied on him near the line, but I think the placed horses are just milers and I can see them going to Royal Ascot. I think that Kameko will line up for The Derby rather than go to Chantilly because there is only one Derby and the owner will chance his stamina. If Oisin can get him settled early and get a good position at Tattenham Corner, he will give a good account with the usual proviso that he handles the camber.
     
    #90

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I am not a stopwatch man anyway. Didn't a Handicapper beat Black Caviar's time at Royal Ascot?

    In my opinion Pinatubo has run to about 114 today and that is a stone behind his OR

    His Dewhurst win was quite a bit below his previous romp and I felt the Racing Post were talking pish with their rating of 122 on the day. It meant them upgrading an already well exposed Arizona. That figure of 117 for Arizona in the Dewhurst and the 8lb rise to 116 on official ratings looked to be complete bullshit today. I hate to be a party pooper but I suspect Kameko might have won that with a performance of 115 today. Any attempt to frame the race based on Pinatubo's 128 is going to look ridiculous in my opinion.
     
    #91
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Agreed. Never agreed with Pinatubo's rating last year either. Always thought that was ridiculous
     
    #92
  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I didn't mean Kameko didn't deserve to win but I think Buick was outridden by Dettori. He kept him in a pocket and when Buick did move he didn't move decisively. Even if he had Kameko would probably have beaten him.
    I think Kameko could win the Derby because it's another poor year. However it sticks in the gullet of people of a certain age when you see Kameko's 4th dam is by Be Friendly.
     
    #93
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  14. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I not mean to infer that you were casting aspersions on Kameko, I was just offering an opinion. I do agree with you that Dettori rode the race better than Buick. Obviously we have no way of knowing if Aidan gave him instructions or whether he just rode the race how he felt it once the stalls opened.

    It is almost de rigueur that before the race, when there is no short-priced favourite outstanding candidate, the Derby is described as looking like a poor race. We know now because of subsequent events that last year’s race was moderate (even though I backed the winner!) but I do not write it off until we have seen the race and how the three year olds do against their elders (the true yardsticks) later in the season.

    The fact that Kameko has a sprinter in the dam’s side of his pedigree several generation back would not be putting me off too much as I am sure you could find a sprinter somewhere in many Derby winners pedigrees if you went searching.
     
    #94
  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The official Handicapper raised Palace Pier 11 lbs to 109, so my back of a fag packet maths wasn't far off.
     
    #95
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  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Well anything over 99 would have been towards 110 <whistle>

    Very good estimate <applause>

    What would you be tempted to push English King up to? Make sure there is a "p" after it :emoticon-0143-smirk
     
    #96
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Gave up after 10 mins QM. I'm sure Bustino could find one, if there is one, but it isn't easy
     
    #97
  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Was said in jest. I'm very fond of fast horses, especially good ones. I suppose I don't consider Be Friendly a really good sprinter, though a much admired racehorse. He isn't the Tetrarch though is he (who I'm sure is in countless Derby winner pedigrees). And Nearco's grandfather Phalaris (and ancestor of just about every horse runiing) was often talked off as a sprinter even though he won races over far further. In relative terms Be Friendly was a bit of rough.
     
    #98
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    English King pretty much depends on whether Berkshire Rocco ran to his official mark of 104.

    Coming into the race I had expressed doubts about the colt who was 3rd in the Zetland Stakes as a 2YO. He seemed to take a leap forward of huge proportions out of the blue in that race. He was raised from a fairly stagnant looking 84, right up to 104 in one fell swoop. 20 lbs is a lot to move forward when a horse had not appeared very progressive up to that point.

    I would probably give English King 110p and be wary of it for now. That still leaves him anther 10 lbs to find to win a mediocre Derby and he is no value for me at the current odds, even in an uninspiring looking year thus far. Something else should emerge from the shadows and by god we really need something to bring proper and solid quality to the race.
     
    #99
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  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Cheers. Looking at it from another angle. How many colts are there around that would have run that Derby trial in a faster time, and that easily?
     
    #100

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