I cannot recall the last time that the ground was softer at Newmarket on Arc weekend than it was in Paris. Not that long ago it used to be Cambridgeshire weekend. So HQ is a no-bet, but I hope Laurens gets back on the winning trail.
Today’s racing at Longchamp will give us a chance to assess the actual state of the ground before Sunday.
The form makes Moulin/Jacques le Marois third Line Of Duty hard to oppose in the Prix Dollar where none of his rivals have won more than a Group 3.
I cannot say that I would be in any rush to back 2018 Poulains winner Olmedo in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein as his fourth in the Moulin is his best form and he has only won a Group 3 race since May 2018. Shaman has shown a similar level of form since his second in this year’s Poulains and Impulsif comes here on a four-timer, winning a Group 3 latest with Study Of Man third.
The Prix Chaudenay, run over virtually the St Leger distance looks a good opportunity for the third on Town Moor, Nayef Road, to get back in the winner’s enclosure. Queen’s Vase winner Dashing Willoughby and Geoffrey Freer winner Technician may well both do better on the soft ground than they did at Doncaster but the only recent blot on Nayef Road’s form was his total no-show in the Great Voltigeur. Looking at the breeding of Andre Fabre’s filly Muette (Deep Impact ex Blarney Stone), should it not be with Aidan O’Brien?
Interesting that in the Prix Du Cadran, Frankie is not on Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee but instead rides first-time-blinkered Falcon Eight for Dermot Weld (well behind Dee Ex Bee at York). Whilst there is no question that the Gold Cup runner-up is the best horse in the race, he has had some tough races since May so could this be one race too far? With no Stradivarius today, this is his chance for a Group 1.
The feature Prix de Royallieu sees the home team led by Prix Vermeille runner-up Musis Amica, whose form otherwise this year has been disappointing. Oaks winner Anapurna was five lengths behind after a long layoff since Epsom and ought to get closer today and it is no surprise that Frankie favours her over Lah Ti Dar, who is clearly not a Group 1 filly even in a sub-standard season. Given that Mutamakina was second in the Prix Niel last time, some will be watching her as a form line to Sottsass for Sunday. Today, I think John Gosden is supplying the winner but that will be ENBIHAAR, taking on the Group 1 after a hat-trick of Group 2 successes in Britain. The question mark is the going: she beat Delphinia and South Sea Pearl last time on much quicker ground at Doncaster.
