Just watched it there, Thistlecrack looked the winner everywhere bar the line, couple of jump cost him including the last. 5/4 for the Gold Cup was a crazy price after winning one of the worst King Georges of all time, but id be more confident about him in the Gold Cup after his performance today and hes now a much fairer price at 9/4. Wouldnt bet him just now as might even get 3/1 the field on the day if they all turn up.
Shame about Many Clouds, good horse, hennessy and national winner and at least he went out on a high beating the Champion elect
Arrogate and Cali Chrome lock horns later at Gulfstream in a class 6 1k handicap ...bookies can't split the pair here. I'd plump for CC given I believe this is going to be his last ever run before being retired and will be aiming to leave on winning terms before making a few pups for himself. Not really solid logic but it fits the story well. Should be a good watch.
Today exposed how hugely in the bookies favour that price was. Great news if you're in the Thistlecrack camp for the big day because you're right - he'll be a fair price now. Terrible if you've been looking to play against him.
In my opinion a career-best performance from Many Clouds, he really did go out at the top. Thistlecrack ran his race today but a few sketchy jumps cost him and he was beaten fair and square. He still deserves to be a short-priced favourite for the Gold Cup but his prices feels closer to what it should be now. A tremendous performance from the winner and such a shame he paid the ultimate price.
Thistlecrack surely hasn't got much hope of getting home over an extended Gold Cup trip, that was over a furlong shorter today don't forget and he was on fumes at the end. The only chink in his armour before today looked to be the stamina, the jumping's not conventional but it gets the job done but being critical he did make mistakes today. The way the GC will pan out I'd be expecting to see him travel really well for 95% of the contest but to be going up and down on the one spot after the last. To be fair his price was bonkers, based on a very dubious piece of form from Kempton where he looked to have plenty left but on today's evidence the patrol guage was probably close enough to empty. Tizzards right in running Cue Card as he will stay and I'd strongly fancy him in a match bet to beat Thistlecrack. Happy with Djakadam each way anyway, he's nailed on to place now, at least.
What was interesting for me is that Tom Scu didn't get after Thistlecrack too hard, as Chelsea said this morning today was his prep run. Chelsea fair play you called it spot on!!
If it's a wet Friday and it has been a couple of years he'll be some sight but he'd definitely want a deluge. Smad Place last year showed that there's a gap between winning a top handicap easily off a big weight and a Gold Cup so he has a fair bit to find on the bare form. Interesting race, it's so open now, could make cases for plenty so I'd be expecting a huge field, which would be another negative for Thistlecrack (wasn't today the biggest chase field he'd faced yet?)
Good to hear Auvergnat was ok too in the end. Was better than 75% of olympians with that ****ing high jump! I'll be honest, i want Cue Card to win a GC as he deserves it, and i think he will win it, but now i probably want Thistlecrack to win it even more and every face he has over fences, just so Many Clouds will be the only horse to have ever beat him over fences. What a horse and what a tough tough tough horse more than anything, so sad and still just hurting over it.
Don't usually use stats/trends as a basis much either, but when a favorite also hadn't won that race before today since 1999 and factoring everything else it was just a no brainer Similar to the derby one where no horse had won it at odds under 8/1 or something and i was literally willing Harzaad's odds to go into 7/1
First time Thistlecrack had to settle in behind rather than go to the lead. It may help his jumping long term and in a GC field too but there's definitely chinks in that armour. I'd say unless he gets to the front and dictates in March he is in big trouble if he gets into a scrap with something up the hill.
That Gulfstream race tonight is the richest race ever run and could be decided at the start Big deal made about the draw and the record of horses drawn high at the track, its a really short run to the first bend, Arrogate drawn 1, Chrome drawn 12. Neither draw is ideal imo but most seem to think its advantage Arrogate. Chrome is usually a good starter and if he gets across I think he wins at this trip but its coin toss odds about a coin toss so not interested in betting either. Neolithic 33/1 e/w for an interest.
Native River is the one who will make the Gold Cup an end to end gallop. The main issue I have Thisltecrack's performance today was his couple of sketchy jumps main because they happened when the race was starting to quicken. I was disappointed that he didn't find much when he came off the bridle. He won't be able to get his own way at Cheltenham so will probably hve to settle in behind which I don't think suits him. Ultimately his chase form to date can be questioned with the King George being against one horse capable at big grade one's who ran below form. I really can't see value in his price. There isn't a whole heap of depth in the Gold Cup at the moment but there were only two horses of note today and they conspired to beat. Native River is the one for me at the moment(not betting on him yet).
