You backed a horse for the Derby with a 90 rpr for a mile maiden win, presumably not because the form was good enough to win a Derby? I said I might back Telecaster because of his breeding, his sire is my favourite horse and I backed his dam when she placed in the Oaks, not because he had achieved Derby level form. He has the pedigree to produce a career best in the Derby but his next race will tell whether he is good enough to run. The horse ive made a case for in the Derby is Line of Duty.
In an open looking year might another horse who won on Saturday enter Derby calculations? Moonlight Spirit was very impressive at Leicester. OK he is now only rated 95 after that win but might they look at testing the water with him in one of the trials?
King George V handicap at Ascot for him imo The horse he beat first time out Jalmoud seems to be being aimed a bit higher, hes by New Approach out of Oaks winner Dancing Rain and was odds on fav to beat Moonlight Spirit on debut but ran green.
If you are going to try to assess a horse it is surely better to use a known ratings provider just to get a ballpark figure. That would seem more useful than just having nothing to compare with. The rating a horse has at the time of consideration is going to depend on when the horse achieved the rating and how many runs the horse has had. A horse who ran once at 2YO and achieved a rating of 90 is clearly different to a horse who is rated 90 on their 6th start in April of the following season. Context is everything. Golden Horn ran at Nottingham on his sole start as a 2YO. He narrowly won and was rated 86 on RPR, the official handicapper awarded him 90. His next start was in the Feilden Stakes, where he improved to 111 on both scales. In winning the Dante the Racing Post put him up to 123, while the official handicapper was less enamoured on 118. After the Derby the ratings were more concurrent on RPR 127 and OR 126. Comparing that to Bangkok, for example, he is now on 106 OR and 108 RPR. The inference is that Golden Horn had done more after two starts than Bangkok after five. Regarding Space Blues, I always said that I only had a small bet for him in the Derby simply as he was too short to back on his seasonal re-appearance. It was just to have an interest in a horse who has looked very promising as a 2YO. Backing horses at big ante-post prices is by nature a very low strike rate affair. I haven't seen a colt I have a strong feeling for this season in the Derby but I do have a tiny bet on Too Darn Hot at 50/1. I saw odds available before his debut and having assessed the race I felt he was very likely to win it and therefore shorten for Epsom. As things stand I have little or no expectation that he will win it, with his career progression on his second start suggesting that he was a Guineas horse. When I see a horse I feel will have a value chance at Epsom I will have a proper bet then. I might wait for Chester and the Dante because there looks little likely to come from the Guineas. Everyone is free to have their own opinion. Catty digs and belittling other peoples losing selections is rather disappointing to witness in lieu of actual reasoned argument. If Line Of Duty wins the Derby I will be the first to give a well done to those who selected him. I don't see all the tips people put up and some of the races on a day to day basis don't catch my attention so I don't manage to give the thumbs up everywhere it might be expected. My belief is that well written and thought provoking posts are what should be encouraged.
When Buick said he would stay further in his post-race interview I started thinking he could be their St Leger horse ..................
I think this is an interesting conversation point actually, because I am a massive sceptic of RPR. I often think they give “hype” yards horses artificially higher marks, and they don’t seem anywhere near as reliable as Timeform seem to be. For something like the Derby I don’t look at ratings, believing what I see in the races. Ratings for me are more interesting for horses going into handicaps and I do rate Timeform quite highly in certain circumstances.
If you run 2nd in a maiden and the winner wins a G3 classic trial next time it can only be described as form franked, nobody said it was Derby winning form. Bangkok lost by a head to Sangarius first time out, pulled his chance away on second start and then ran 4th against a track bias in one of the better Newmarket maidens last season that produced umpteen winners he was unlucky to still be a maiden after 3 runs and is 2 from 2 this season. I dont fancy him to win the Derby but he is a decent horse. Id be hoping Telecaster can improve past him but its not a given. Its too early to be confident about anything for the Derby, ideally you want a horse good enough to run in 10f G1s that stays 12f. I think Line of Duty has the potential to fit that bill but I wont know until the Dante.
That has to be a worry for King Ottokar fans. Even though Space Blues was disappointing last time, he still managed to beat Turgenev. Turgenev was second favourite for the Epsom Blue Riband but was third behind Cape Of Good Hope and Cap Francais. Not for the first time that trial race looks weak. Space Blues made zero appeal today at 1/3 giving 7lbs. It may be that he's just not very good, given that he beat Technician by six lengths further on debut than that same horse was beaten by Bangkok at Sandown. I did read an article last year where Charlie Appleby stated that he has trained more Dubawi colts than anyone else and that he noticed a tendency to "Lose" them in the Spring before coming good again during the summer. With Too Darn Hot out of the Guineas and Space Blues beaten at 1/3, along with Ghaiyyath at the same odds in Sunday's Ganay, there may be something in the trainer's words.
Technician hung across the track first time out, a stout stayer in one of the slowest run mile maidens of the season, pretty sure he ran a slightly different race behind Bangkok. 2yo maiden form is almost irrelevant, its about education and progress. Whats odds got to do with it? Ghaiyyath beat Soleil Marin the same distance he did the time before, was just a better race and no soft lead. Too Darn Hot got injured, Gosden didnt "lose him". Space Blues ran his race and it was another decent run giving weight, he didnt run badly first time either, just not a 10f horse, he still has potential but obviously not as much as the falsely run debut race hinted at.
Well Deal A Dollar did indeed look slow again. Went off 1/8 Fav at Newcastle and got beaten. That doesn't do much for Telecaster and I think that the Morrison horse looks short at as low as 4/1 for the Dante. With Too Darn Hot, Japan, Line Of Duty and Surfman entered there, I would lay Telecaster all day. I would not be surprised to see him actually skip the race as he is really going from the frying pan to the fire with little experience. It's a real step up in class.
