Daily Racing Thread Saturday 25th. January 2020

doncaster,3 15: SKYBET CHASE

RAVENHILL ROAD is my choice here,if only a narrow one,but he still has low mileage as a staying chaser,and arrives here in very useful form.also has a good weight,and stable continues in great form.but a very good renewal this year..

 

Must be the day for it. James Bowen incredible recovery just there at Donny

 

cheltenham,3 35 CLEEVE HURDLE

well,its hard to look past Paisley park here,but ive Always been fond of IF THE CAP FITS,and he too is still relatively unexposed over staying trips,and is also a class act himself.so,any race is different,and i hope,he can upset the hot fav today.

 

HEY!!!! Bit rich coming from a Pentland Hills fan!

 

Paisley Park is the top rated but If The Cap Fits is not far behind. I was going to play If The Cap Fits for Cheltenham in the big one but if he's to win that he probably needs to win today so a few quid at 3/1 today seemed sensible.

3.35 If The Cap Fits 3/1

World Hurdle If The Cap Fits 7/1

 

Thanks for sharing, good second

 

Dismal effort from If The Cap Fits there. Harry Fry was very bullish about him during the week, stating that he felt the horse could serve it up to Paisley Park but on today's evidence there is far more between the horses than the official Handicapper's 3 lbs. Very tame and Harry Fry needs a reassessment.

Not spectacular from Paisley Park but he's become a win machine in the manner of Big Bucks, if not reaching that Legend yet.

 

Maybe you have been mugged off by believing the ratings but Paisley Park is pretty much in a class of his own in the staying hurdle division. Opposing him is not to be recommended. Nothing flashy just gets the job done. His one possible weakness is the fact that he jumps quick and low and flicks the top of a lot of hurdles. One day that might catch him out but I hope not.

 

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benie des dieux looks the only realistic opponent but likely to take the easier option in the Mares Hurdle.

 

I would say she odds on to duck the WH. She is a shoo in for the Mares so it makes sense.
The opposition to Paisley Park will be a short list of horses who have already tried and been found wanting.

 

Ruby just about confirming Benie will go Mares. She would never beat Paisley Park.
Ruby also hinting Saldier is the main one for the CH from Ireland.
Santini must be seriously in the mix now as will surely improve again from that after the wind op.

 

I'd be of the other belief and I feel Benie Des Dieux would win the stayers hurdle, she would be tanking going down to the last and be far too classy for anything in it I think. Given her connections recent volition to take the race they will definitely win, then she is mares bound. That went well last year. David Casey stating on Thursday that they feel she is the best mare they've ever had...then they should back that up and run her in the bigger of the races. You look at today and Paisley Park is doing it well enough, but beating a mid 150 horse in Summerville Boy, beating a 12 yo Thistlecrack prior to that compared to the mare hack cantering home against past festival winners rated in the mid 150's as well. Whatever race she runs, she would win barring accidents.

 

Did you notice the O'Connor boy on OK Corrall smacking him with his hand on the run in because he had dropped his whip

 

I don’t disagree in terms of taking on the males, but that race Benie won fell apart with Apples not running a race and the form of the race can’t be taken literally in my opinion.

Paisley Park is one of those horses who finds what he needs and then only does enough so we don’t know where his ceiling is. I’d hope the mare would put it up to him to find out, but I really don’t see it happening.

Unfortunately that is becoming a regular statement at Cheltenham and it makes the sport weaker as a result.

 

I agree with all that, of course it is all subjective at the end of the day, it is just my belief that the mare would win. It doesn't neccesarily mean I would be right. I am taking BDD's back form into consideration also, of course. You are right about Paisley Park too, he's one that you often see winning and think so and so would beat him the next day but he goes and gets the job done again, I felt he travelled lovely up to the lead today and won more cosily than the winning margin suggested but I think the mare has a higher cruising speed and would not stop when the button is pushed. It would be great to see it but we are likely only pipe dreaming.

Did someone mention a possible Saturday at the festival to me that would be disastrous for the competition of the races.