The ground may not be ideal but he goes well fresh, loves it round here and the yard is in very good form.
Looks like a day for the favs on ITV to me. If The Cap Fits, Politilogue, Cyrname, First Assignment, Might Bite.
I am copying and pasting here, an interesting piece from Face book by a guy called Joe McNally, who speaks out in favour of Bristol De Mai. Some interesting points, but all debateable of course. See what you think ....... The Curious Case of Bristol De Mai I see Nigel Twiston-Davies is now concerned about the drying track at Haydock for tomorrow’s Betfair Chase. I hope he runs Bristol De Mai, not so much for the betting side, but he is a fascinating horse, the kind I like. The straightforward ones are the horses you want to own. They consistently run to their mark leaving little detective work to be done for the punter. They’re a joy, but boring. You can’t beat a good mystery like Bristol De Mai. Treating Bristol De Mai as a suspect in a fictional story, what would Sherlock Holmes say? He has a solid report full of evidence and the starkest fact confronting him is that Bristol De Mai shows what seems to be his true character only at Haydock. This is obvious and unarguable. The question is why does this happen? Many of Sherlock’s contemporaries believe that it is not so much Haydock as a track, but the deep ground there he likes. BUT, he has failed to reproduce his ‘evidence’ on deep ground elsewhere. Either the ground at Haydock plays a much smaller part than has been allowed for, or the texture of Haydock’s deep ground differs so significantly from similar going at other tracks that it stands on its own. The trouble with the latter assumption is that our only witness here is Bristol De Mai, and nature has imposed an eternal Fifth Amendment on him. What of the other matters the horse cannot discuss? Those stomach ulcers. Are they made much worse by racing? Could it be that after a Herculean effort in bad ground that those ulcers flare up so badly the horse needs a long rest before he is comfortable enough to race again? Was his final run at Aintree last season some evidence of this theory? And does the fact that he ran so comparatively poorly immediately after his last two Haydock victories lend that theory even more credence? Well, you might say, after his first Haydock win he won again. Hmmm, but that was three years ago; were the ulcers there back then? Also, that race was comparatively short at 20f compared to the stamina tests of the other two. Let’s return to the known evidence – the steeplechase track at Haydock. If we set aside the ground for now, what is it about Haydock that makes it different from the tracks where he hasn’t run so well? 1 It’s left-handed Interesting . . . 9 out of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings have been achieved going left handed. The only right handed course, Sandown, was down in joint 9th/10th. 2 Haydock’s a galloping track, owing to its long straights. All but one of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings (Aintree the exception) were gained at galloping tracks. 3 Haydock has easy fences Does it? They are portable fences, which can be made just as stiff as permanent fences. Not enough evidence at hand of casualties at Haydock or elsewhere to provide any insight. 4 Haydock is a flat track Of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings, the top four were at flat tracks. Some evidence there but inconclusive. (NOTE: all Racing Post Ratings based on chase form only) What of the horse’s style of running, might Haydock particularly suit his natural stride length, especially in the positioning of the fences? The only evidence to support this would be that Bristol De Mai jumps Haydock better than he does any other track, and gets into a sustained rhythm there that he has never been able to produce elsewhere. Form detectives will have their own opinions on what aspect is most important in staying steeplechases. My own is that rhythm, by which I mean a sustained rhythm for as long as possible, is the most important aspect – all else being equal. Sustained rhythm cannot happen without good jumping, so that quality is assumed. So, aside from the solid evidence that he is better going left-handed, the chief suspect in Bristol De Mai’s top performance level is not so much tied to a particular track, but to achieving sustained rhythm. It is likely, I think, that Haydock’s layout and, perhaps the makeup of its fences, provides Bristol De Mai with the ideal conditions to establish a rhythm early in the race and sustain it to the end. His strong record on galloping tracks lends credence, I think, to the benefits of rhythm in staying steeplechases. Over to you my learned friends
hi fellas! haydock,1 15: a tricky contest,as they are all very useful,but a small nod goes to KALONDRA.he was perhaps a bit unlucky the first two starts of the season,but is pretty good on his day,and should be competitive off this mark..
I know Joe from another forum and he's an excellent judge of jumps horses. He did get a bit carried away with Bristol De Mai in last year's Betfair Chase though. I think a rating of 195 was mooted for the romp in the gutters. I tend to feel that some races in attritional conditions are dangerous to take at face value. Horses are being pushed to their very limits of stamina and simply cannot perform to anything like their best. We often hear jockeys talking about getting a horse in a good rhythm early in a Grand National, so I agree that rhthym is important in staying chases. The trouble for Bristol De Mai today is that he faces a Chaser with arguably the best rhythm of the lot in Native River and on this ground I feel Bristol De Mai faces a lot tougher assignment to last season. Might Bite looked to have Native River covered in the Gold Cup but we saw him going from travelling the better of the two, to coming under pressure fairly quickly and Native River's stamina won the day. I can't see Bristol De Mai shaking these two off and I think it's a simpler case of them being more talented than he is. I don't like making excuses for horses and Bristol De Mai just seems inconsistent and when he isn't favourite, he doesn't seem to run as well as when he's dominant in the betting. I would go with Might Bite today and on good ground he will be hard to beat this season. Bristol De Mai is surely 8/1 for a good reason?
ascot,1 30: i would ve liked to see a bit more from PETTICOAT TAILS on her seasonal debut a few weeks ago,but she still rates as very dangerous here,as she was a very good bumper/novice hurdle horse,so improvement definitely on the cards today..
Three bets for me today: In the Betfair Chase Might Bite 11/10 win Haydock 2 25pm Theos Charm 10/1 each way. Course Form is very good and getting weight...must have a squeak.. Also Huntingdon 2.50pm Pray for a Rainbow. 9/2 each way. Was up at Sam Drinkwaters yard earlier and they fancy it to run well.
haydock,1 50: the form of GARO DE JULLIEYs silver trophy win at chepstow has worked out really well in the meantime,so i wouldnt rule out another good showing today,as a 4 lbr rise seems fair enough..decent e w value..
I'm sticking with Native River later, despite logic saying that the race is set up for MB. In the 1-50 Haydock, I'm expecting a good run from Cliffs Of Dover
Beautiful ride by Dickie Johnson. Cliffs of Dover went out like a light - frustrating. Needs to settle better.
Looked like a very strange ride on Cliffs of Dover. Held it up, then made the move forward like he was ready to go for it, then looked to change his mind and then dropped out very odd
