Daily Racing Thread Saturday 22nd. August 2020

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3.40 York - Pondus - 8/1 ew

Listening to the Betfair podcast Kevin blake seemed quietly confident about this ones chances. Very unexposed over this trip, being out of Sea Of Moon would give you plenty of hope he would get this trip but he and with the restrictions going on in terms of travelling they surely wouldn’t be sending one over if it didn’t have a real chance
 
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With Sevilla doing the bizz last night in the football, I’ve got extra play money today. My arrows at York,
1.50 Pogo
2.25 Favorite Moon
3.00 One Master
3.40 Pondus (cheers Woolly)
Singles, doubles, trebles and acca.
PSG tomorrow night for me, Naymar to shine for once????? Have a great weekend fellas. Good luck with your bets :emoticon-0148-yes::emoticon-0167-beer:
 
In the opening Strensall Stakes at York, I am opposing Lord Glitters firstly because the O’Meara yard has only had 3 winners in the last 30 runners; and those were six and seven days ago. My second reason for opposing the horse is that the 2019 Queen Anne is the only race it has won it two years and this race in 2018 was his previous win. The Crisford runner Epic Hero is difficult to assess. Formerly a hype horse with Andre Fabre, for whom he was a five-length second to Persian King, he won a Meydan handicap back in February. In theory Zabeel Prince is the best horse in the field but he has done nothing since winning last year’s Prix d'Ispahan. That brings me to the Royal Hunt Cup winner DARK VISION (third was Pogo), form reversed by the runner-up Montatham at Sandown, but he subsequently won a small Listed race beating Beringer. This looks like the natural progression.

In the City of York Stakes, I have had no call from the Haggas yard to buy me off my jinx horse. So look elsewhere for the winner because my dosh will be stopping ONE MASTER. I do not rate three year old Threat as anything like his name. The biggest danger to Tom Marquand’s mount is San Donato, beaten in both starts this year by Mohaather but best judged on the first of them having been third in the Poulains on his only start as a three year old.

Sean Levey has deserted Marronnier to ride Dean Street Doll in the Sandown 2:40 but both seem to have similar chances, his mount third in a fillies’ handicap at Goodwood last time whilst Marronnier has run here four times over ten furlongs. Paul Cole’s River Dawn only has one turf win to his name, the three wins in his last five races all on the sand. Gin Palace won a brace of handicaps before running down the field last time and likes to be up with the pace. Variyann also likes to be up front but struggled last time with a 12lb rise after his previous two wins. The pace may well come in the form of hat-trick seeking GOLDEN FORCE, who made all at York last time for Steve Donohoe, beating subsequent winner Confide. The danger here is that the pacesetters may set the race up for a hold-up horse if they are too keen and take each other on. Enigmatic could be that horse as he has only been raised 5lb for an easy win in a weaker race last time.
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
I would be avoiding anything Mark Johnson wise at the moment 8wins out of 90 runners in the last 2 weeks and his horses this week (on the whole obviously I know summer moon won) haven’t run great
Click to expand...

I know it is all lies, damn lies and statistics but Mark Johnston has had 50 runners in the last seven days of which 4 have won. He has also had 6 seconds, 5 thirds and 5 fourths so they are hardly running like drains. Obviously from the win bet point of view 4/50 is poor but 2/14 at York is showing a level stakes profit and he has only had two favourites in those 50 runners.
 
Morning all....

York 3.40pm Alright Sunshine 20/1 each way 5 places. Was very progressive last season and this race has been the main target for the season (applies to others too). Won't mind the ground even if they get some heavy showers. Big run expected.

Uttoxeter 2.10pm Hello Bob 9/1 each way. She s in good form, will be suited by the galloping track and did her best piece of work for trainer last week. They are expecting a very good effort from her.

Good luck all.:emoticon-0167-beer:
 
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FLINTROCK 11/1 Uttoxeter 2;10
Only ran five days ago and I had been expecting a much better effort but now they have slapped the blinkers on and the money is down. Take note.

Doesnt seem to be any love for TRUE SELF in the Ebor. At the 2 pole last year you would have had the mortgage on and felt confident but she had no legs in the final furlong. She has since proved that she gets the trip and arrives here on the back of wind surgery and is 2lbs lower. The drift is worrying but it could just be a blessing.
 
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Looking at Ben Macdui this morning I was slightly concerned that the Timeform preview on ATR did not have him in their 1-2-3 of best prospects in the Listed 2YO sprint race. The Kevin Ryan colt is a son of Kodiac and he made a winning debut before stepping up in class for the Group 3 Molecomb at Goodwood. He was runner up to the promising Steel Bull that day, not quite matching the Irish raider's speed. Steel Bull was disappointing next time but banged his head in the stalls and broke two teeth, so that was hardly ideal. The Molecomb third has won since and the 4th was runner up in a Listed race.

Dropped to Listed from Group 3 today, Ben Macdui brings the best form so far, along with Lauded. Lauded was a non runner yesterday but his form tie horse Yazaman was pretty disappointing and that dampens enthusiasm. Acklam Express is improving but needs a bit more and the stables Ubettabelieveit was awful in the Gimcrack yesterday.

A race with a few possibilities but I like Ben Macdui here and he was my selection at 7/2 with Kevin Stott having a good strike rate of near 24% for Kevin Ryan.

4.10 York Ben Macdui 7/2
 
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15:40 Uttoxeter - Solomon Grey

(Form lines indicate a good chance in this event, but needs to be ridden with a little more restraint this time?)

....................

(Also, had a very modest e/w on Glencadam Glory in the Ebor, just for interest in a very open race)
 
I found it hard to go against Trueshan in the Ebor. He has been prominent ante-post in the betting for the race for an awful long time and has a very appealing profile for a trainer with an excellent record on the Flat. Alan King did well at Royal Ascot and I feel he can land another good pot with a horse clearly oreoared with this race in mind.

This trip is not one Trueshan has won at but it should hold no fears and he seems nailed on to run his race. Plenty of possibilities of course but there were plenty of positives in Trueshan's profile and rather than look for a bigger price and an each-way play, I went win only on the King trained horse.

In a race where I felt the class horses might fight it out I did the top-weights in a permed tricast for some fun. With number 2 a non-runner, that leaves 1.3 and 4 at the head of the field. They are Deja, Trueshan and Fujira Prince, who is the favourite and unexposed despite his age, due to missing time with problems. There is a potential bounce with him but he has had a couple of months off since his comeback win.

3.40 York Trueshan 6/1

No1, No3, No4 (6 x combination tricasts)
 
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stick said:
FLINTROCK 11/1 Uttoxeter 2;10
Only ran five days ago and I had been expecting a much better effort but now they have slapped the blinkers on and the money is down. Take note.

Doesnt seem to be any love for TRUE SELF in the Ebor. At the 2 pole last year you would have had the mortgage on and felt confident but she had no legs in the final furlong. She has since proved that she gets the trip and arrives here on the back of wind surgery and is 2lbs lower. The drift is worrying but it could just be a blessing.
Click to expand...
Sorry to put the mockers on Flintrock, Stick, but I took some 17/2 this morning and thought that was good value.
Here's hoping...(go the BOG)....
 
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Hello gang - here are today's telly picks that you can discount from your calculations

York

150 Miss Oconnor - can any of you wise ones tell me why Prince Elji has no official rating? He has done plenty of UK racing and IM(very)HO should be at around 110

225 A Star Above

300 Safe Voyage - One Master looks a worthy fav, but SV is in my tracker, so .....

340 Euchen Glen ew; Monica Sheriff ew What a minefield the Ebor is, could pick half a dozen and not get a place!

410 Winter Power


San

205 Balzac

240 Gin Palace

315 Makram

Good luck all <ok>
 
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Reebok said:
Hello gang - here are today's telly picks that you can discount from your calculations

York

150 Miss Oconnor - can any of you wise ones tell me why Prince Elji has no official rating? He has done plenty of UK racing and IM(very)HO should be at around 110

225 A Star Above

300 Safe Voyage - One Master looks a worthy fav, but SV is in my tracker, so .....

340 Euchen Glen ew; Monica Sheriff ew What a minefield the Ebor is, could pick half a dozen and not get a place!

410 Winter Power


San

205 Balzac

240 Gin Palace

315 Makram

Good luck all <ok>
Click to expand...
I'm really sorry Reebs, but having just torpedoed Stick's, I've backed the same 2 as you in the Ebor.
I even considered asking on here if I was missing something with Monica Sheriff, re: odds, draw, pilot, ground, etc; but having not found an entry called SirCumferenceOfaPillock decided to keep my powder dry.
G/L to you anyway.
 
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