Daily Racing Thread Saturday 22nd. August 2015
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The 9 para explanation to show that the race in question is not technically a handicap will be a stonker.
Dan, no need for nine paragraphs – the original discussion was about the Ebor handicap at York. I edited the quote to remove stick’s first part about the odds that were available as it was not worth arguing with insufficient facts available to me.
When stick claimed that it is the “biggest gambling race of the entire season”, that was palpable nonsense. We all know the one race that half the country bets on and this is why it always tops the turnover table; however, it is a statistical aberration.
I am currently trying to find a link to the list that Coral published showing the top 40 races by turnover. We know what is number 1 but out of the other 39, 19 of the others were races run at some place called Cheltenham in Gloucestershire. I have a feeling that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is number 2 and the flat races on the list are dominated by handicaps like the 2000 Guineas and The Derby.
This is the Horserace Betting Levy Board’s list of the Top 10 races of 2014 by turnover:
1. Grand National, Aintree
2. Cheltenham Gold Cup, Cheltenham
3. Epsom Derby, Epsom
4. Ladbrokes World Hurdle, Cheltenham
5. Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham
6. Scottish Grand National, Ayr
7. King George VI Chase, Kempton
8. 2000 Guineas, Newmarket
9. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham
10. Queen Mother Champion Chase, Cheltenham
Just how many handicaps are there in the Top 10?
In 2014, the Ebor did not even make the Top 10 for July to December; and it came in at number 8 for July to September with the St Leger beating the Cambridgeshire (a handicap!) to top the list.
I claimed the biggest gambling race of the season was a handicap. Not that the Ebor was the biggest gambling race of the season. You have with your downloaded proof proven me correct.
2 out of the top 6 are handicaps, that is 1/3. 5 of the others are races at the Cheltenham Festival. The really interesting stat would be what the next ten are.
Thank you for proving my argument correct!
There is nothing like editing the statistics until they “prove” your argument – forget the other four in the Top 10 because they are not handicaps.
Trying to find the Top 40 list that Corals published but have a feeling that because I saw it in the paper version of the Racing Post it is probably somewhere on their website that needs paid member access.
Try to mangle this one: here are the Top 10 races by turnover from March 2014, all at Cheltenham (unsurprisingly):
1. Cheltenham Gold Cup
2. Ladbrokes World Hurdle
3. Champion Hurdle
4. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
5. Queen Mother Champion Chase
6. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
7. Grand Annual Chase
8. Triumph Hurdle
9. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
10. Ryanair Chase
Now what did I originally say about the biggest betting races? Plenty of handicaps at the Festival but they do not seem to attract the big rollers like the championship events...
The best month for you would be April 2014 as the Top 3 were the Grand National, Scottish Grand National and Bet365 Gold Cup: 100 per cent, if you ignore the next four at Aintree and Ayr.
yawn yawn yawn, my statement was that the biggest betting race of the entire year was a handicap!
you have done your research and reported back that the biggest betting race of the year is the Grand National Handicap Steeplechase.
That's a HANDICAP....yes?
Thank you, my point proved 100% correct by YOU, thank you!
I never mentioned the next 99 races, all I said was that the biggest betting race of the year was a handicap.
I was right, 100% right.....so stop being an Arkleesque dick!
you have done your research and reported back that the biggest betting race of the year is the Grand National Handicap Steeplechase.
That's a HANDICAP....yes?
Thank you, my point proved 100% correct by YOU, thank you!
I never mentioned the next 99 races, all I said was that the biggest betting race of the year was a handicap.
I was right, 100% right.....so stop being an Arkleesque dick!
Way back on Monday morning, I stated “the big players who put on thousands and tens of thousands bet almost exclusively on the top pattern races not twenty runner handicaps”.
At Cheltenham in 2014 one of the Top 10 races by turnover was a handicap. If the broadsheet ‘Sporting Life’ still existed, where the results pages included details of the large bets struck, all the 5-figure bets would have been on horses like Faugheen in championship races, not any of those slow plodders in the handicaps.
The Grand National is a one-off race that no proper statistician would include in their analysis. Contact Professor Geoff Nicholls at Oxford University, I am sure he can quickly explain things like statistical significance.
In the NH season, handicaps should fair much better on the turnover lists because unlike the UK flat season, the NH season contains handicaps that the best horses are able to contest, such as the Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup.
Probably, but I do not have any turnover details available to support that assertion.
At Cheltenham in 2014 one of the Top 10 races by turnover was a handicap. If the broadsheet ‘Sporting Life’ still existed, where the results pages included details of the large bets struck, all the 5-figure bets would have been on horses like Faugheen in championship races, not any of those slow plodders in the handicaps.
The Grand National is a one-off race that no proper statistician would include in their analysis. Contact Professor Geoff Nicholls at Oxford University, I am sure he can quickly explain things like statistical significance.
In the NH season, handicaps should fair much better on the turnover lists because unlike the UK flat season, the NH season contains handicaps that the best horses are able to contest, such as the Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup.
Probably, but I do not have any turnover details available to support that assertion.