So who wins the the big one Tnite- for me ALBIGNA the one to beat!! She was a big 2yo last year and well clear on the ratings! I know they are well over 6months old but very few of Jessica horses don’t train on. Stable is bang in form too. And I just love the horse too!!
I did Albigna ante-post for this race. The 2/1 was not a big price but I felt that Love, Millisle and others in the betting would be running in the Newmarket Guineas and would not turn up in the Irish version. Those fillies dropped out as expected and I got a bonus when Harrington decided not to run Alpine Star, who was the second highest rated filly in the race. The plan went well, yet I was looking yesterday and saw that Albigna was still available at the same 2/1 odds I took ante-post, so all that risk for no reward in the odds. I felt compelled to double my bet given the make up of this race.
Peaceful has looked Aidan's best shot since betting first opened on the race. She looked the filly most likely to come here, rather than travel to Newmarket. By wonder sire Galileo, she came forward a huge amount from a moderate debut to slam her field by 7 lengths in a maiden next time out and then finished 2nd in a Listed race on her final start of the season. That was the Montrose Stakes and although Run Wild came out of that race to run away with the Pretty Polly recently, the winner Born With Pride was a huge flop next time and the other fillies who have run since managed to stink the place out with unplaced efforts. Peaceful needs more now to win a Classic and she is rated behind stablemate So Wonderful for now.
So Wonderful has some excellent placed form but is still a maiden after eight starts. To be fair to the filly, she was very highly tried at times and only ran in maiden races twice. By War Front, rather than the magic Galileo it would be easy enough to make a case for So Wonderful each-way four places at 9/1 based on her best placed efforts from last season and the fact that she is 8 lbs higher than Peaceful on current official ratings.
Soul Search is a similar candidate to So Wonderful, in that she is a maiden with useful placed form. Her OR of 106 is also in advance of Peaceful thus far and Ger Lyons' filly is a massive 33/1, some 30 pts higher than the second favourite for today's race. Perhaps a bad sign is that the money is for Ger's other filly Roca Roma, who is 10/1 from 16/1. Runner up on her only start, that race hasn't looked great thus far and the Australia filly faces very much faster ground today. I can not help conclude that So Wonderful is a better bet at only one point less of a price. Roca Roma comes in with 25 lbs to find with So Wonderful on Racing Post Ratings and although she is much less exposed that is still a long chalk to make up pitched into a Group 1 on only her second start. Ger also saddles Even So and she is open to further progress but needs to fins more than a stone and was beaten at odds-on in a Group 3 last time. Ger is getting as bad as Aidan for going in mob-handed by the look of this race.
Fancy Blue is unbeaten and was backed early doors for this race. A New Dawn did nothing for her form in a Listed race win when she was down the field the oter day after running Fancy Blue close prior to that. I though Donnacha's filly would benefit from stepping up to 10F and this could be sharp for her today. Very weak in today's betting I feel the young trainer has sent her into the furnace a bit too early and she will need to be quite special to win this today. Again, So Wonderful appeals more at the same
Ridenza made a good start to her career but I am assuming there was a problem that meant we didn't see her again and it is now 10 months since she was last on the racecourse.
The more I look at the race, the more I feel Albigna should be winning it. Her Boussac win stands out by a fair way. The Breeders Cup trip was the owner's pet ptoject and the filly ran well enough on the greyhound track that was never going to suit. The jockey has said that Albigna is quirky but that she is good when she puts it all together. I had expected her to be nearer evens on the day and didn't know how to feel when seeing her at 2/1 last night. Maybe it was a honey trap but I'm in again now and have to hope the filly can deny what seemed like a complete lack of support despite the bigger names dropping out.
In the 5.10 Race I felt Aidan had a poor looking hand. Salsa was hopeless last year in compiling a 666 form line. Snow was also disappointing. Ger Lyons' Thunder Kiss has been backed but has not raced yet. Perhaps Siskin fever is behind the positive vibes for the trainer's runners. I thought that normal prgress from Florence Camille could see her win this. The Galileo filly was 3rd on debut and her RPR of 80 for that effort is top of those with figures so far, with Snow and Salso just on 62 and 69 for now.
I though Florence Camille was the bet at 7/2. Trainer Dermot Weld is 0/14 currently but he has been running some real outsiders amongst those.
5.10 Curragh Florence Camille 7/2
7.15 Curragh Albigna 2/1 ante-post and again last night.
