Off Topic SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19

I imagine deaths in the poorer parts of India will not be known.

 

If Britain is top of the league for death rates, why the **** am I still at work?

 

I don’t think we are top. Not a chance like for like numbers are being used. Germany isn’t telling the whole story. Virus still to peak in many countries etc

 

Crazy I dont get it

 

You're a hero.

 

Well, the conclusions are made, then the reporting of the investigation done so that it confirms the conclusion. I have some personal doubts about the usage of mathematical models and how they've been used to predict the virus spread.

Other factors such as the prevention - the conclusion of what was best, ie the lockdown, sitting on a beach in the sun with your family is deemed high risk, for example, yet several million journeys a day on public transport have not been stopped completely.

 

I agree with you. If covid has done this here, in Italy, Spain, France, Belgium and the US, there’s no way more countries haven’t been ravaged by it. Particularly a lot of the less well off ones.

 

I'm not a hero. I want twelve weeks furlough so I can build a bigger and better shed than Bob's

 

I can imagine that you may not like the scenario and parameters of any model (and therefore disagree with its assumptions) but its rather hard to argue with the actual maths. Real life is going to be a trade off between idealised "advice" and what is practical. If you stop transport, you stop key workers working. If you interrogate each traveler, they are never going to get there. No easy answers to complex problems

 

I don't disagree with maths, no. I disagree with how effective using mathematical models and then defining public policy based on their finding is. The R1 figure, for example, and its usage.

Key workers on public transport during lockdown is contradictory. To me, key workers should be the most protected. Having millions of middle class office workers shivering with fear next to their Gaggias, posting #stayhome on social media, whilst key workers are expected to take buses/trains/mix in public, doesn't make sense. If money wasn't an issue, key workers should have been provided with more secure transport, for example, if this was the case. You have to wait weeks more to go for a picnic with your wife, but can take a plane journey to X... And so on.

A scared and compliant population is easily manipulated.

 

The more I read the less I believe these days. Loved this line in the article...

It is rare for doctors to fall from windows in Russia, but

 

It seems like hero's only work for the NHS. As for everyone else who has to work ( care workers, shop staff, delivery drivers etc. ) are largely forgotten.

 

And public transport workers too. The poor buggers that have to drive the buses and trains so derided by one individual.

 

I didn't read it as he was deriding the poor buggers who had to work, rather the contradictory way the police were actively chasing down individuals for breaking the lockdown rules ( sitting in a park or beach, riding a bicycle etc. ) but still social distancing, while on the other hand permitting the public transport system to run at peak capacity. Does seem rather odd.

 

I think unfortunately the NHS were singled out initially as part of the government 'simple' message (devised by their behavioral / Nudge unit) for us all to get behind & weekly reinforcement of the message with the weekly clapping on a Thursday. I suspect even those in the NHS are finding it wearing thin and fully agree about other workers.

Listened to an interview with the Nudge unit on radio 4, fascinating stuff, all simple messages, e.g. aware if you say don't touch your face it makes you do it more, so used the wash your hands message to counteract it

 

You may be right, Ron, as the second I read this, I scratched my nose

 

Hotels in Amsterdam aren’t all open.
The one I should have been in soon isn’t

 

I’ve done a bit of work with the Nudge Unit. Nudge theory is fascinating stuff and genuinely effective too