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BinghamSpur said:
I too can see quite a few draws coming up for everyone and yes, every game recently has been a "must win", but you do feel that Wolves one is massive for us.

Also I've been saying it a lot recently but I do feel Forest are not out of it yet. There will be a massive squeaky bum time for a few teams on the final day... <laugh>
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If Spurs win and Forest lose then it’s down to 2 points and they’re back in it but 5 points at the moment seems a big gap when you consider Spurs haven’t won for so long.
 
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KingHotspur said:
If Spurs win and Forest lose then it’s down to 2 points and they’re back in it but 5 points at the moment seems a big gap when you consider Spurs haven’t won for so long.
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I had this conversation at work today with the little enclave of Forest fans.

They all feel they're safe and it's between us and the Hammers. I did point out the run ins but they appear to be off the impression that theirs was easier.... :emoticon-0138-think

Would agree though that lose or draw to Wolves, and it's a moot point.
 
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BinghamSpur said:
I had this conversation at work today with the little enclave of Forest fans.

They all feel they're safe and it's between us and the Hammers. I did point out the run ins but they appear to be off the impression that theirs was easier.... :emoticon-0138-think

Would agree though that lose or draw to Wolves, and it's a moot point.
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I’d be confident if I was them, even with their fixtures. Very unlikely both West Ham and Spurs will hit form and close the gap quickly.
 
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KingHotspur said:
I’d be confident if I was them, even with their fixtures. Very unlikely both West Ham and Spurs will hit form and close the gap quickly.
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I don't buy this.

I'm sorry but their form hasn't been impressive enough to justify such confidence.

Since beginning of Feb:
Drew to Palace
Lost to Leeds
Drew to Wolves
Lost to Liverpool
Beat Fener in EL
Lost to Brighton
Drew against City away (good result)
Drew to Fulham
Scraped past Midget Land on pens in EL
Beat us
Scraped past Porto
Drew to Villa
Beat Burnley

Nothing there screams a team that has fully turned a corner. They beat us and Burnley to lift themselves out of danger. Everyone beats us and Burnley. Draws against City and Villa and scraping past Porto are their only impressive results in almost three months.
 
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Citizen Kane. said:
I don't buy this.

I'm sorry but their form hasn't been impressive enough to justify such confidence.

Since beginning of Feb:
Drew to Palace
Lost to Leeds
Drew to Wolves
Lost to Liverpool
Beat Fener in EL
Lost to Brighton
Drew against City away (good result)
Drew to Fulham
Scraped past Midget Land on pens in EL
Beat us
Scraped past Porto
Drew to Villa
Beat Burnley

Nothing there screams a team that has fully turned a corner. They beat us and Burnley to lift themselves out of danger. Everyone beats us and Burnley. Draws against City and Villa and scraping past Porto are their only impressive results in almost three months.
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Last 6 league games, points earned:
Leeds 9
Forest 9
W Ham 8
Spurs 2

So appealing to form does not help you. Though if W Ham carry on like that they’ll be around 40 points, so a transformation in your form (aka actually winning games) could still easily get you safe. I leave you to decide how likely said transformation is.
 
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There is a fair bit of research into whether form is a good predictor of success. If it was there should be longer runs of wins and losses than is expected randomly. Various different results have been found but none show a big effect.
I actually find this surprising as psychologically you would imagine that runs of wins and losses would have a measurable effect.
 
Leeds have points in the bag. Not going down.
Forest are 5 games unbeaten in the PL and have a lot of good players - some of whom (MGW, especially) are in form.
It looks like a straight shoot out between West Ham and Spurs.
Of course, any results are possible but it’s hard to see Forest surrendering a 5 point lead over 5 games.
 
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littleDinosaurLuke said:
Leeds have points in the bag. Not going down.
Forest are 5 games unbeaten in the PL and have a lot of good players - some of whom (MGW, especially) are in form.
It looks like a straight shoot out between West Ham and Spurs.
Of course, any results are possible but it’s hard to see Forest surrendering a 5 point lead over 5 games.
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They could easily lose all their remaining games.
The fat lady is not even limbering up yet
 
Spurf said:
They could easily lose all their remaining games.
The fat lady is not even limbering up yet
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Football as we know is unpredictable

But for Leeds to go down now would be beyond remarkable. 40 points with 4 games left and 9 clear of 18th is 99.9% safe.

If Spurs and West Ham win and Forest lose then they’re back in it but even all of that is unlikely.
 
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KingHotspur said:
Football as we know is unpredictable

But for Leeds to go down now would be beyond remarkable. 40 points with 4 games left and 9 clear of 18th is 99.9% safe.

If Spurs and West Ham win and Forest lose then they’re back in it but even all of that is unlikely.
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I was talking about Forest. Leeds should be safe.

Tonight will tell if Forest win they should be OK but look at their remaining fixtures.
 
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Spurf said:
They could easily lose all their remaining games.
The fat lady is not even limbering up yet
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My post did concede that any results are possible.
But the word “easily” is out of place in yours.
In the first year of the PL, Oldham in 20th (22 team league then) were 8 points behind Crystal Palace in 19th with three games left and stayed up after winning those last three games, including a win away to 2nd placed Villa, which handed Utd a first league title in 26 years.
Anything is possible (if it’s still mathematically possible).
 
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