Arguably all the teams we have played have improved since then & so has the competituvity of the league.I think the main thing to take from this is that if you score enough goals you will survive even if you concede a lot.
Results Comparison
- Thread starter Little Saint Nick
- Start date
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Am I missing something here? Why is this chart cheering people up?
Saints are playing those teams at a tough time in the season. And some of those years those four teams weren't as good as they were this year. It's interesting, and it helps provide a bit of context but the picture is still very murky. So I wouldn't read too much into it overall.
But to the extent we CAN read anything into this chart, isn't it bad news? It looks like only one team had results similarly to Saints and that team was relegated. What it says to me is that promoted sides have in the past, have generally managed at least a point or two against Man U, etc., and Saints have not.
Saints are playing those teams at a tough time in the season. And some of those years those four teams weren't as good as they were this year. It's interesting, and it helps provide a bit of context but the picture is still very murky. So I wouldn't read too much into it overall.
But to the extent we CAN read anything into this chart, isn't it bad news? It looks like only one team had results similarly to Saints and that team was relegated. What it says to me is that promoted sides have in the past, have generally managed at least a point or two against Man U, etc., and Saints have not.
Hi ISIRTP,
My intention wasn't to cheer people up, merely to provide some context for some of the comments/predictions made by pundits/bookies after only 4 matches.
There appears to be a variety of suggestions floating around ranging from "NA's out of his depth" to Robbie Savage (shudder) on 606 saying Adkins should be given 2 years, regardless of what happens in the meantime.
My concern was that some (but not all) of the punditry seemed to simply focus on 'zero points' and failed to take into account:
a) Who we'd played
and b) How other newly promoted teams coped against the same opposition.
It just struck me that looking at how other newly promoted teams had faired in the corresponding fixtures in their first season back, might provide a more balanced view than simply looking at the current table, where all teams had obviously played against differing levels of opposition.
DaiswanHuwsmate is absolutely right when he says it's "usually the worst team at the bottom of the table", unfortunately he/she failed to add "after 38 games" to the end of that statement.
The stand-out points for me were:
o Two other teams had failed to pick up a point in our fixtures. One stayed up. One got relegated. (50-50 odds anyone?!!
)o Two teams even failed to score a single goal in the 4 games (admittedly they've conceeded less) and survived. We've scored 5.
I guess if you're a glass half full person, you'll look at Burnley getting 7 points from the similar fixtures 3 years ago, still get relegated, and think "teams have started better than us and still gone down, so there's still all to play for".
Similarly, if your glass is half empty, then the comparison with Blackpool will be looming large.
My take on the stats...?
You could have 7 points from 4 games or you could have zero points from 4 games. It really doesn't guarantee anything after 38 games.
My glass...?
....is due a refill....
...anyone fancy a pint?
Cheers
LSN
Thats correct its not the points or lack of tham thats concerns me (anyone who can remember the early 90's will understand) its the way and the ammount we are conceding , many many defensive errors and then add to the fact they are not in my opinion good to be defending in the premiership only heightens this .
Add to that we can not really strenghten until January and I am concerned to say the least .
Add to that we can not really strenghten until January and I am concerned to say the least .
I entirely share your concern. However, I am not jumping overboard after 4 games, 3 of which are amongst the toughest we're liable to come across. Wigan was a definite naughty-naughty.
Not sure I like the scary similarity between Blackpool and our own outcomes, though. Got hit for six by Arsenal, unlucky 2-3 loss to United, plucky 0-1 loss at Man City, and a net two goal loss against Wigan. Leaving us one goal conceded apart in the table. A non-existent defence but great attack, and a manager with no PL experience under his belt. At least they spent no money!
But yes, undoubtedly scores would have been different if those games had all been played consecutively. If our season had genuinely started this weekend, I have no doubt we'd have points on the board. In the event, I worry about the fact that we have four losses on the board at this point, and how that will affect our heads going into these next games. The PL final positions are often built on large elements of luck (incorrect pens, disallowed goals) for teams like ours - the fixture computer, though, has conspired to make bad "luck" (whether you believe in it or not) a huge part of our season already, and we need to get over it and move on fast.
But yes, undoubtedly scores would have been different if those games had all been played consecutively. If our season had genuinely started this weekend, I have no doubt we'd have points on the board. In the event, I worry about the fact that we have four losses on the board at this point, and how that will affect our heads going into these next games. The PL final positions are often built on large elements of luck (incorrect pens, disallowed goals) for teams like ours - the fixture computer, though, has conspired to make bad "luck" (whether you believe in it or not) a huge part of our season already, and we need to get over it and move on fast.
What we also have to acknowledge is that every team is making these mistakes, and has been regularly over the last one or two PL seasons. Watertight PL defences are a thing of the past - look at Swansea's howler against Villa; Liverpool's handing of a gift goal to Man City etc. In their PL season, Blackpool cruised through to January in the top half of the table with a defence even worse than ours, and an attack certainly less expensive. The difference being that they didn't spend any money on their weaknesses come January, as they thought they had a winning model. They almost did it too - and were seriously unlucky not to. We have had the benefit of having four very hard lessons very quickly - and doubt very much that we wil be ignoring our back four come January.
Now... we just have to do the scoring more than we concede part up to January.
Slightly worrying we seem to be a carbon copy of Blackpool. Having said that we should never have lost to Wigan. Hasn't been mentioned that much but Fonte was fouled for the second and we hit the post/bar twice. Not that I'm making excuses or anything.
Open to debate on whether it was a foul or not but he should of not got himself into that position in the first place .
Agree with gomarchingin about Fonte. He should not have been in that position as last man. Plus, hitting the woodwork is basically just a miss. Doesn't mean anything. Get the shots on target. Look at Liverpool - hit the woodwork more than anyone last season.
Shhhh....haven't you lot done enough this week to shatter our illusions
In all seriousness (and I may go a little OT here), I think the Saints do have the capacity to stay up. You showed a lot more quality than was evident from the scoreline on Saturday and I think if you could get the defensive strategy sorted you would be a dangerous side because you certainly have an attack equal with, if not better than the likes of the teams around you. Remember that WBA themselves got hammered 6-0 by Chelsea on the opening day of their first season back and still went on to have a great season. So don't despair.
Edit: If you're going to finish in 17th place, make sure it is ahead of Liverpool
In all seriousness (and I may go a little OT here), I think the Saints do have the capacity to stay up. You showed a lot more quality than was evident from the scoreline on Saturday and I think if you could get the defensive strategy sorted you would be a dangerous side because you certainly have an attack equal with, if not better than the likes of the teams around you. Remember that WBA themselves got hammered 6-0 by Chelsea on the opening day of their first season back and still went on to have a great season. So don't despair.
Edit: If you're going to finish in 17th place, make sure it is ahead of Liverpool
Great post!