Just seen this elsewhere: 9 teams have a chance to get promoted, this is their form in the last 10 games: Middlesbrough: WWWWDLWLWL (19 points) Nottingham: LLWWDWWWLW (19 points) Wolverhampton: DDLWLWWWLN (15 points) Watford: WLWWWLWWWD (22 points) Norwich: LDWWWWWWLW (22 points) Ipswich: LDLWWLWLLD (11 points) Brentford: WLWLLWWLWD (16 points) Derby: WWWDDWWLLD (18 points) Bournemouth: LLWWDLLDWW (14 points) ──────── If each team kept their respective form in the next 10 games the table will look like this: Watford 88 Norwich 87 Middlesbrough 85 Derby 84 Bournemouth 80 Brentford 78 Wolverhampton 73 Nottingham Forest 72 Ipswich 72 I'd be happy with that! Just shows how incredible Forest's form would need to be to make the playoffs, 25 points from a possible 30. That or someone will have to really go off the boil.
And that's much the same thought many of us had for us to have any chance of autos about 6 weeks ago. With the way the top 6 are dropping points they're in with a chance.
Well, there have been so many changes over the last few weeks, that I felt it was time to update the fixtures list for the top 7. I've opted to leave Wolves and Forest out of the equation for now, but will revisit it in a couple of weeks. Bournemouth V Blackpool Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Cardiff V Bournemouth Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Bournemouth V Middlesbrough Sat 21 Mar 12:15 Ipswich V Bournemouth Fri 3 Apr 17:15 Bournemouth V Birmingham Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Brighton V Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 19:45 Reading V Bournemouth Tue 14 Apr 20:00 Bournemouth V Sheff Wed Sat 18 Apr 15:00 Bournemouth V Bolton Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Charlton V Bournemouth Sat 2 May 12:15 Norwich V Derby Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Derby V Middlesbrough Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Wolves V Derby Fri 20 Mar 19:45 Derby V Watford Fri 3 Apr 19:45 Wigan V Derby Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 12:15 Derby V Blackpool Tue 14 Apr 19:45 Huddersfield V Derby Sat 18 Apr 15:00 Millwall V Derby Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Derby V Reading Sat 2 May 12:15 Watford V Reading Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Wigan V Watford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Watford V Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Derby V Watford Fri 3 Apr 19:45 Watford V Middlesbrough Mon 6 Apr 12:30 Millwall V Watford Sat 11 Apr 15:00 Nottm Forest V Watford Wed 15 Apr 19:45 Watford V Birmingham Sat 18 Apr 15:00 Brighton V Watford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Watford V Sheff Wed Sat 2 May 12:15 Middlesbrough V Ipswich Sat 14 Mar 12:15 Derby V Middlesbrough Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Bournemouth V Middlesbrough Sat 21 Mar 12:15 Middlesbrough V Wigan Fri 3 Apr 15:00 Watford V Middlesbrough Mon 6 Apr 12:30 Middlesbrough V Rotherham Sat 11 Apr 15:00 Middlesbrough V Wolves Tue 14 Apr 19:45 Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 19:45 Fulham V Middlesbrough Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Middlesbrough V Brighton Sat 2 May 12:15 Norwich V Derby Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Huddersfield V Norwich Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Norwich V Nottm Forest Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Brighton V Norwich Fri 3 Apr 15:00 Norwich V Sheff Wed Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Bolton V Norwich Sat 11 Apr 15:00 Leeds V Norwich Tue 14 Apr 19:45 Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 19:45 Rotherham V Norwich Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Norwich V Fulham Sat 2 May 12:15 Brentford V Cardiff Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Blackburn V Brentford Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Brentford V Millwall Sat 21 Mar 13:00 Fulham V Brentford Fri 3 Apr 15:00 Brentford V Nottm Forest Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 12:15 Sheff Wed V Brentford Tue 14 Apr 19:45 Brentford V Bolton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 Reading V Brentford Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Brentford V Wigan Sat 2 May 12:15 Middlesbrough V Ipswich Sat 14 Mar 12:15 Ipswich V Bolton Tue 17 Mar 19:45 Watford V Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Ipswich V Bournemouth Fri 3 Apr 17:15 Huddersfield V Ipswich Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Ipswich V Blackpool Sat 11 Apr 15:00 Ipswich V Cardiff Tue 14 Apr 19:45 Wolves V Ipswich Sat 18 Apr 12:15 Ipswich V Nottm Forest Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Blackburn V Ipswich Sat 2 May 12:15 On the face of it, Brentford have the easiest run in and I feel their best hope is to finish in the top 6, but not in the autos, their inferior GD could be their downfall. Despite SN23’s belief that we’ll win the league, IMO it’s far too close to call. There are several key games over the next few weeks and I’m certain the top 6 will certainly be in a different order by the time we get to the Easter weekend.
Looking at that our run in whilst having only 2 top6 left at home. We have very few easy matches left although the final 2 look almost perfect. Those 2 consecutive away games could put a spanner on the works.
Based on this season's results, I'd say that's probably a good thing. It's the "bankers" where we have been terrible - whenever there's been a decent side and build-up before the match we've invariably played well. It's Fulham at home on the last day of the season that I'm most worried about, and also the Brighton and Bolton matches... Basically we're totally reliant on Hoolahan being in good form to unpick these teams, IMO.
I have no concerns about Fulham, they are total rubbish at the back. We struggle against all out defending done to a reasonable level. I think we'll clinch promotion against Boro. There are going to be a lot of dropped points by those in the top 6 coming up over the next 5 games. As long as we are not one of them we will be in a fantastic position. Once we get that top spot I cannot see us losing it. We are too strong.
Thanks for your work on this DH and JR, as it certainly throws light on the situation. March is a crunch period, especially for Derby and Boro, but April has another when teams play 4 games in 10 days around the Easter week-end. Stamina, squad size and injuries may take a toll in those games. Derby and Boro have by far the toughest fixtures, but also the greatest chance of picking up points against fellow contenders. A win over Derby next week would certainly change the picture.
i think the idea that we have the easiest run in is a bit of a fallacy actually. I've quickly made a table showing the avg position of remaining opposition, but then also worked out avg form position for each based on the last 5 home or away matches (depending on the fixture) We don't stand out as having as easy a run as you might expect. Middlesbrough have by far the hardest run in based on both metrics, but Bournemouth and Derby have surprisingly easy runs when you look at form, while Brentfords isnt the easy run it looked like necessarily. I suppose my take home from this is its not sitting on a plate for us just yet, we are going to need to graft away for the next 10 games to make this happen, despite suggestions that the next fixtures are 'in the bank' already.
I'm hopeful that AN will keep doing his homework against our opponents and choose the right tactics and players to defeat most teams. I don't think we have any easy games left and with Tettey now having served his suspension and Vadis-Ofoe on the verge of returning, we should be too strong for most teams. I think we'll do well to win at Brighton and Leeds.
To me, the impact of Vadis is a complete unknown - I've not seen him in action at all even when he was fit. On their current form, I'd be surprised if he displaced Wes or Jonny but, equally, be increasingly hopeful for the run-in if AN felt that he was worth a position in the starting 11 ahead of one of those two, or maybe even as an adequate alternative.
The next 6 games for Derby are a real challenge for them. Us, Boro, Wolves, Watford, Wigan and Brentford! 5 of the top 8 and away to a Wigan team you'd expect to be fighting for their lives! They're lucky Chrissy is coming back just in time for that run!
The latest form guide - looking at that, I feel one of our tougher tests in the next few weeks will be Forest, but I don't think any of our games are particularly easy!!! Look at Derby, Middlesbrough and 1p5wich in 15th to 17th places!!! Also, other than ourselves and Forest, the goal differences are pretty poor.
Charlton's form is extraordinary and I can see they don't have any of the top eight to play (unfortunately) other than Bournemouth at home on the last day. I think they're way off the play-offs, so let's hope their form holds up until then!
Carrabuh, under AN we have played six matches on the road and won five of them, with the other drawn. Wins at Watford, Bournemouth, Blackburn, Charlton plus Millwall. It would seem that our home results are a little more problematical. Four wins, two defeats under AN.
The Binners desperately need to hold onto that GD because I think it's going to be very tight between them, Brentford and Wolves (and possibly Forest) for that 6th spot. I'm convinced the other five play-off/autos spots are the top five now. I said there was a good chance that Wolves would be above them by the time they went to the Molineux and that was dismissed out of hand by the Binners. Now I think they're in danger of being behind well in advance!
