OGS reckons they need 18 points, so he presumably thinks 36 to stay up. For us then that's only 3 wins, 3 draws, which is perfectly doable. I'd rather we were aiming for 40 though!
i'm not so sure about this bottom 4 being detached, it's all still very close. look at palace, they've won 2 big games in a row. Other teams could easily replicate this. although it looks like 36 pts might be enough for 17th, often teams pick up in the run in, so we could see that go up a bit too.
It is a bit early yet, Max, but then CT did say "beginning to see the detachment of the bottom four". Beginning is probably the key word, but Cardiff have now lost 4 in a row and 6 out of the last 7 (the 7th being a draw). That has to sap morale. Fulham have lost 3 out of the last 4, but Sunderland and West Ham have had a better mix of results with 4 and 5 points from the last 4 games. From our perspective, though, even the best of those only matches City's 5 points from the last 4 games without closing the gap. Last night's point was very important, IMO.
I can't remember exactly but I am pretty certain that I said that four points from Hull,Toon and Cardiff would be a good result,but if I did it was last night's game that I saw as the nil points.So we have achieved that with a game to spare.I would hate to be a Cardiff fan going into our game with them,the pressure for a result is immense now.That sequence of one point from seven games must surely be the worst for any team this season. I started off saying 36 or 37 and worse GD but,assuming that we don't see wins for both Sunderland and West Ham tonight (And you will get good odds on that) then I think the trend must be down.With three sides 4/5 points adrift of games there will certainly have to be shock results if we are going to be anything like 38.So yes,three wins and three draws will most likely be enough for us.
to put it bluntly, cardiff vs norwich is an absolute must-win for the home side. for us, it's more a case of must-not-lose. when you see how many games are left (either 15 or 16 for some), i simply cannot see any team with 36+ points getting relegated. there just isn't going to be enough points available for all the teams in the bottom half to achieve anything higher! my guess would be something even as low as 34 points will be safe, though that would be cutting it very fine. anything over 36 points and we can chill, i'm positive of that
supers raises a good point, i forgot about the amount of clubs below saints and the low spread of points difference 36 would mean 3 wins 3 draws 9 losses or 2 wins 6 draws 7 losses
And for us to get 3-3-9 we would have to get worse in terms of form (we are currently essentially 4-4-7)! Surely we can't get any worse?!
we made a poor start to the season, albeit the fixtures were skewered, which i suppose they are towards the end of the season too. first 15 games saw us record a 5-2-8. repeat that and we'll end up going past the magic 40, achieving 41 points this season. we'd have to completely collapse to go down
I see the away games at Cardiff, Swansea and West Ham as being pivotal, along with the home games with Sunderland, West Brom and Stoke. The two games with Palace look immense now don't they? The point at Palace was met with groans on the board but they have a great recent record and are winning against the lower sides 1-0 on a regular basis.
Hopefully those games can be the 3 wins and 3 draws. If we can at least pick something up in 5 of the 6 games we'll probably be alright.
I'd include the away games against Villa and Fulham as well. Surely City can pick up enough wins and draws from those to reach the upper 30s with any other points as a bonus.
