Perhaps you're confused fieldmarshall, but everything you post here is public. There's a private chat facility in the top right corner if you would prefer to keep it private.
Thanks for telling me as I didn't know that, its only been 7 years of posting, apparently yorkie thinks we are Morecambe and Wise Westy, he should know when it comes to comedy gold.
Whether people think we're doomed and already relegated, or think that PL will perform a miracle, the last two games we lost the chance of taking points off two of our main challengers, which is not what we would've liked. BUT, on the other hand, we played so much better those two games, which has given me optimism that we will improve over time and get a few more 3 points on the board. Whether we win enough, well find out in May. As much as I wanted Hurst to succeed, unfortunately his lack of experience has cost us. Hopefully we can stay within 3-4 points off by January, and hopefully ME will sanction a transfer to get us a goalscorer we desperately need. I've no idea if we'll survive or Not, but I've more optimism today then I did 2 weeks ago
Hi Stretchy.. Starting Saturday we effectively need to roughly win every third match and draw one of the others between now and the end of the season. WDLWDL. That is the form of the top half sides in the table. Let's say that our form continues as it has until January. By then winning every third and drawing every third game is no longer enough, by then we roughly have to match the form of not the top half sides but of Forest and Derby so far, which would require winning one of those drawn games. In effect winning every other game WDWLWL. Let's say the signings are not made at the beginning of January (and it certainly won't be in time for the crucial New Year match at Millwall) but at the end of the transfer window we probably need something like auto promotion form. Psychologically being stranded at the foot of the table is damaging for us and encouraging for all our opponents but it's not going to change the points mark we need to hit at the end of the season, it just makes it less likely we will pick up the wins. To get from where we are now to the kind of form required and for the change to be immediate - and that means picking up points off top teams when we have failed to beat any of Reading, Preston or Millwall - I just can't see it happening. The last three games could have made a huge difference to what we needed to do for the rest of the season and we have not taken that opportunity fairly spectacularly, so I am much more pessimistic about our chances now than I was after the Swansea win when we had the opportunity to build on our first win - sadly we've gone the other way and now have an absolute mountain to climb.
That's one way of looking at it Yorkie, but i don't believe in the " WDWLWL" scenario. There are 29 games to go, and all we have to do, in effect is win two more games than three of the teams above us. Unlikely, but we could be out of the bottom three by the end of November - and then all we'd need to do is match what the three teams below us do. There's so many permutations and ways of looking at it, statistically, but, there's no point in trying to work out what we need to do between now and May - other than gain as much as possible. I'll only start looking at the bigger picture come March / April, when hopefully we'll be out of the bottom three
While I somewhat pessimistically believe we'll get relegated this season, I think it's incredibly melodramatic to just say we're doomed to relegation and there is no chance we're staying up. There are still 29 games of the season remaining, we admittedly look more likely to score under Paul Lambert's management, and the fact that this rather hapless Ipswich side are somehow only five points from safety gives me a slice of optimism that survival is certainly achievable.
Rotherham pulled off the feat a couple of years ago from a very similar start albeit they were not stranded, but they went on a colossal 6 wins in 8 matches and 11 match unbeaten run. That is the sort of form it's going to take. The other three teams directly above them at this point were relegated. Fast forward another 12 months and Rotherham were relegated anyway, along with the two other bottom sides at this stage who had 15 and 16 points after 17 games. Another year on, last season, and it was Sunderland on 11 points after 17 matches, we know where they are now. Bolton were in the bottom three and pulled themselves free at the expense of Barnsley who were sucked down. Burton weren't so 'lucky'. Go back to 2014-15, the bottom side after 17, Blackpool were relegated along with Wigan who had 16 points at this stage. Bolton pulled themselves free from 16 points and a point adrift. So in the last four seasons it looks like this from 17 matches: Average of 1 in four of the bottom three survived (this more or less holds going further back). Also average of 1 in four of the bottom sides escaped (although if you go further back Rotherham's feat was a rare event). On the balance of probability (at best a 75% chance) we are very much doomed I'm afraid. The more weeks that pass without a turnaround the worse those odds are going to get for us.
I'm not arguing with the stats, Hampy, I'm aware it's a massive challenge to avoid relegation and one that I personally do not think we will achieve. However, as your stats show, it is possible to avoid relegation, despite our current points difference and with our current league standing, at least at this stage of the season. Therefore, we are far from relegated yet.
None of us know whether relegation is a certainty yet, but what I do know is that PL apart from playing better football has put the pride and spirit back in the side, God knows there's mountains to climb when we play these top teams but I'm cautiously hopeful that with the new spirit about the Club we are at least in with a chance. As of this morning Ladbrokes aren't offering any odds on Town being relegated, they said its too early to call, ..... I'm just saying.
The attacking play was better but the defending for the second goal and at other times, and the fatigue was absolutely shocking. If we get further stranded in the next few games that belief and spirit will quickly drain out of the side. The problem we have now is we can feasibly win one of the next two, which would look like a good outcome, and still be adrift. I think we need to have a bounce of winning three of the next eight (and I just can’t see that happening) to have a realistic chance or that psychological damage of being adrift at the bottom will effect confidence and performances.
We need 2 full backs who are competent in that most basic full back skill of stopping the crosses coming in, failure to do this puts pressure on central defenders and keeper and basically passes responsibility over to them, we've not had decent fbs for a long time and its about time this was arrested, I can't see us stemming the goals against to any degree until we do.
If you want to go down the stats route, then the average points needed to stay up in the last ten seasons, is 46 (although that is bumped up because of two seasons where 51 and 54 were relegated). We have 11 points with 29 games to go - another 35 points required. If you break it down to 5 game chunks, then the minimum required is win one and draw 2 of those five games. That will give us 41 points, which would've been enough on four of the last ten seasons (including on goal difference). So that's 6 wins, and 12+ draws needed in 29 games. In my opinion, thats definitely achievable.
Stretchy, if you aim for the lowest possible total we could need that’s equivalent to trying to win a formula one race by assuming that the other front runners will crash out or burn up their tyres. The average is 46 as you mentioned and often it’s 49/50 so we need to be aiming at the 50 point mark. This is a more competitive season than usual so I would be amazed if low 40s would do it this season. The other thing is that those seasons with low points totals had very poor clubs - we are the poorest in the division so by definition if we go on a run then the mark will be higher.
You can toss the stats around as much as you like and make them bear out what you say, this team might blow up, that team won't last, so lets deal with what we do know. The team has weak points in key areas fbs, mfs, and possibly up front although we are now scoring more, but that's not difficult considering the dross Hurst served up, the key to this as usual is Evans and his deplorable funding of our Club that has brought us to this position, and unfortunately a lot will depend on his willingness or otherwise to buy our way out of the mire he has driven us to, it really wouldn't matter if we had Pep here, without reasonable quality players we would struggle to compete. We have some players who are not Championship standard and PL knows by now who they are, they have to be moved out and replaced along with the permanently injured, good players are no use if they never play and some will never make the grade so to coin a phrase, " you can't develop what's not there " .
