The Queen Anne Stakes has had a wide open betting market since odds were first compiled for the traditional Group 1 mile contest that opens the Royal Meeting in June. This is probably due to the lack of a really top class miler in the older division. With the Lockinge just run, it seems a good time to weigh up the contenders and consider any value angle. Laurens had been a tentative ante-post favourite at 10/1 for a while before the Lockinge was run and she ran a sound comeback in second place at Newbury. The new favourite however is Mustashry, who ultimately won with some authority last Saturday. Michael Stoute's horse is 6YO now though and did he really improve 5 lbs on his 18th start, as the new Racing Post Rating suggests he has? Going into the Lockinge 13 of the 14 runners were covered by just 2 lbs, with 115 to 117 being the range they all fell within on official figures. Mustashry was one of those on 115 and it will be interesting to see if the official handicapper concurs with the Racing Post assessor and puts the Lockinge winner up to 120. Mustashry had been 16/1 for the Queen Anne prior to Saturday's win but is now generally about 5/1. For me that looks too short given that he came under the pump from a fair way out in the Lockinge and only really got on top in the closing stages as others faded and he stayed on. Visually it looked a potential breakthrough but I have my doubts and at his new odds I can't have him for the Queen Anne. Laurens ran a sound enough race if not threatening Mustashry and she was only a few pounds short of her best on RPR figures. The 3rd Accidental Agent (Defending Queen Anne champion) was given as running close to his best, which will encourage connections because he ran poorly in his two subsequent starts last season. Accidental Agent was a shock winner at Royal Ascot last year at odds of 33/1 and I am just a bit wary of using him as a reliable yardstick for the Lockinge form. Several of the Lockinge runners ran terrible races. I saw Without Parole tipped up by Simon Rowlands on ATR but the horse was tailed off, almost pulled up and too bad to be true. Beat The Bank also ran poorly, while Lord Glitters had a bit of a shocker, beaten more than 20 lengths. Le Brivido ran a puzzling sort of race stepped up in trip from 7F, looking as if further still might have suited him, while Romanised in 4th concerns me a little, because, apart from his Irish 2000 Guineas win, he hasn't even vaguely resembled a horse rated the 120 he was awarded by the Racing Post for his Curragh success. I am of a mind to play down the Lockinge form and take Mustashry's new RPR with a pinch of salt. Looking at other contenders, Auxerre interested me as a potential improver after dominating the Lincoln in grand style. The last I heard though was that he would take a Listed contest in next time up. Auxerre's official rating of 108 leaves him needing about 10 lbs improvement to be a potential winner but that is possible for one so lightly raced. I don't see Auxerre entered up at present though and we are running out of time to fit a race in before Ascot. Going straight from Lincoln to Queen Anne looks a tough ask, so the general quote of 12/1 for Auxerre does not appeal to me. Hazapour did not stay in the Derby and he has dropped back in trip. Quite impressive last time out but I don't really rate runner up Verbal Dexterity and the contest in general looked a bit weak. Overall Hazapour does not scream Group 1 miler and his odds are short enough now at a general 16/1 with his mile winning form at Group 3 level for now. Plumatic was regarded highly as a 3YO but he was then last in the French Derby and well down the field in the Arc behind Enable. Dropped in trip as a 4YO he seemed fairly exposed as a lower level horse but he popped up at 28/1 last time in a French Group 2 over a mile. He only held off Jean-Claude Rouget's Olmedo by a neck that day though in what was something of a return to form for the French 2000 Guineas winner who lost his way in the French Derby and thereafter. With a general malaise in the quality of French horses for a few seasons now, neither horse appeals at about 16/1 odds on average. Going right through the field I cannot get away from the notion that Zabeel Prince appeals most as a 20/1 shot. He won in good style last time out when quickening nicely to cosily defeat Forest Ranger and Mustashry over 9F. Both of his victims won next time out and Mustashry is now favourite for the Queen Anne. The potential problem is that Zabeel Prince is next engaged in the Group 1 Prix D'Ispahan over 9f and the trainer felt the extra furlong had helped him. I got the impression Zabeel Prince would still have won had it been a mile though and the horse may never get a better chance to land a Queen Anne. With his last race working out so well I would have to have Zabeel Prince favourite for the Queen Anne if he turns up. Freddie Head's Solow landed the Prix D'Ispahan before going back to a mile and winning the Queen Anne, so it can be done. If Zabeel Prince were to win the Prix D'Ispahan and connections then considered the Royal Ascot race, his 20/1 odds would surely collapse severely. If he were outstayed in the D'Ispahan then surely the shorter Queen Anne would also come into the equation. I just kept seeing 20/1 as huge and if he doesn't run I can live with that. Queen Anne Zabeel Prince 20/1 is my speculative pick in a very open and tight affair.
The biggest concern is that Roger Varian is talking about going up to 10F with Zabeel Prince after his win in the D'Ispahan. C'est La Vie. There is a Queen Anne there that his horse should be favourite for if he runs and he'll never likely get a better chance of winning a top quality race at a mile. The best way to get Zabeel Prince beaten is probably running him against really top class 10F horses. Anyway, In the Royal Hunt Cup I like New Graduate. The James Tate horse bolted up last time bringing his mark to 102. He looked classy that day in winning by five lengths and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since. Plenty room for improvement yet and I think he stands out. Currently 12/1, I could see him go off at half those odds despite the big field and I would rather have 12/1 than scramble about for an each-way alternative on the day. I missed out on Auxerre at the same odds by stalling in the Lincoln and don't want that to happen again. Royal Hunt Cup New Graduate 12/1
