Exactly, if that is the case, Pot 2 would be the place to be. Poland and Switz seeded above Spain and France though - mental
The race not to be the second-placed team that misses out on the playoffs in Europe is ridiculously complex and confusing, meanwhile. All of Wales, Scotland and N Ireland could conceivably fall into this position (though NI are pretty certain to avoid it). Cyprus v Greece and Bosnia v Belgium in Group H might go a long way towards deciding things today. If both Bosnia and Greece fail to win, then they'll be struggling.
Especially as it's possible that both teams might have to go for the win. We know ROI have to win, but Wales might find a point won't be enough either, depending on other scores elsewhere.
Sweden need to boost their goal difference against Luxembourg today if possible. A cushion would be nice ahead of the Dutch game on Tuesday!
Absolute scenes in Costa Rica as they grab a 95th-minute equaliser to reach the finals (cracking header, too) and players and crowd go suitably nuts. Almost seems churlish to note that they were basically there anyway - even without the equaliser, they'd have gone into the last game with a three-point advantage and a 12-goal cushion in GD.
Right, by my reckoning this is how we stand with the Europe playoffs... In the playoffs Denmark, N Ireland, Italy Nailed on Greece, Sweden In unless they nick top spot Portugal (sending Switzerland into the playoffs if they beat them) In if they win tomorrow Wales/ROI, Ukraine/Croatia Waiting on others Slovakia If there's a draw in Wales or Ukraine, then Slovakia are in the playoffs. If both matches are drawn, then Croatia have to outscore Wales. (I'm assuming Serbia won't lose to Georgia at home.) The likely seeds are Portugal/Switzerland, Italy, Wales, and one of Croatia, Slovakia or N Ireland.
If Portugal and Switzerland are both likely to be top seeded in the WC a group draw, how the **** are they both in the same qualifying groop?
The world rankings are pretty fluid. Portugal were a top seed when the draw was made way back in July 2015, but Switzerland were in pot 2 (as were Italy and France). Romania were a top seed too, having been ranked 8th in the world then. They've been utterly **** ever since and are now 41st! To be fair to Fifa, it's absolutely right that rankings can change signicantly over two years. It would be daft to rank teams based on what a different bunch of players had done 5 years earlier.
A better way for the rankings would just to be to give every side 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, and friendlies are worth **** all. With goal differences as well.
I think the draw will be based on the October world rankings (ie before the playoffs), which will be released in about a week. Moving into pots 1 or 3 looks highly unlikely, given our current ranking.
"I can't ****ing believe it. We Egyptians finally qualified for the World Cup after 28 ****ing years." - Mohamed Salah
So we'll know everyone's ranking for seeding purposes next week - but we won't know which countries will be in the draw. At least one South American team currently above us will miss out, and possibly a European team too (Portugal, Switzerland, Wales).
