QIPCO 2000 Guineas, Newmarket, Saturday 1st May 2021

What do they have Poetic Flare at Ron?

 

What weight was it carrying?

 

I cant have the Dewhurst at all, the winners being sent to France and that bunch of horses were beating each other and finishing in a heap all season, the race looks way overrated at 120 for St Marks Basillica. Thunder Moon was seen to best effect sprinting off a crawl at 7f and I cant see him thriving at a strongly run stiff mile, also dont see him progressing much from last season as he was very precocious and is by Zoffany. Wembley will do best of the Dewhurst horses im sure but hes never a top class miler and it would be disappointing if one of either Battleground or Mutasaabeq didnt turn out to be.

Poetic Flare and Master of the Seas are stonecold no hopers imo.

 

I wouldnt worry about the BC Juvenile Turf form either, 90% of the runs since have been on dirt, Battleground had a rough trip, bumped around and wide into the first bend while the winner had an absolute dream trip, handy inside on a track that was not playing at all to closers. Battleground was miles the best on the day and it was a career best for him suggesting he was progressing at the back end. Physically he is exceptional and im expecting him to be a standout on looks tomorrow.

 

I went for Mutasaabeq at 10/1 and sticking with him. He won over the course (1f shorter) after a 174 day break In decent time (fast by 0.64s). So he acts on the course and the ground. Also won over 7f at the course in heavy ground as a 2yo so should not have any problem with the extra furlong. By Invincible Spirit who was by Green Desert out of a Kris mare he is bred to be a miler, especially when his dam is by the very tough and talented miler Giant's Causeway out of a mare by Mr Prospector. What's not to like? I don't see why he should go any slower than his first outing this year and clock a time faster than standard. Question is. Will any of the others be able to clock a faster time? I see no evidence that they will. My only concern is that Crowley is on top and, whenever I fancy a horse with him riding, he always finds a way to ---c---g lose

 

I'm also going to stick with Mutasaabeq. Hoping the ground stays firmish and that inexperience doesn't sink him. His great uncle, Nashwan, won this race on his 3rd start so maybe he'll do the same. I think the danger is Master of the Seas. As an outsider I think Mystery Smiles will run a lot better than his price suggests. He did not settle in the first 3 furlongs of the Craven and his race was over by then, but he came through to dispute 2f out after a fairly rough passage. De Sousa will have to settle him and he might get a place.

 

I don't get the logic in backing Mother Earth for the 1000 Guineas then. She is also by Zoffany and has had eight starts. That seems counter intuitive if Thunder Moon is done after three runs.

I thought Thunder Moon was pretty authoritative in the National Stakes, having had to wait to get a run, he fairly flew through to take it up and score nicely. The ground was very different in the Dewhurst and the form was reversed. That is only two races and Thunder Moon gets the ground that should suit a hold up/turn of foot horse tomorrow.

Battleground may well be the most imposing colt tomorrow but the market seems against him tonight. He is out to 15/2.

Mutasaabeq is favourite in several lists now and is only 9/2 in a couple of places, with 4/1 being the general price. I think that is poor value and the ship sailed with him long ago.

Van Gogh is weak as a kitten at 14/1 and the Godolphin pair are also on the slide. One Ruler was favourite at one stage but is probably weaker in relative terms than Master Of The Seas who has never really caught the imagination of the punters while One Ruler was all the rage at one time only to be out to 10/1 now.

Chindit is sliding like Babe Ruth into second base and can be backed at 18/1. If money means anything he seems doomed.

Poetic Flare is popular but any each-way value angle is away at 11/1 now. I don't think he beat much last time and I reckon he needs to find 10 lbs to win this.

Lucky Vega is also popular but is silly odds in my opinion at 12/1, Simon Rowlands on ATR put him up at 22/1 for the race based on thinking the colt may well get the mile but he looked a speedy enough sort to me last season.

The Timeform preview on ATR gives Thunder Moon as their five star pick but then goes on to give SEVEN horses next best on four stars. Talk about covering yourself on the "dangers" front.

Good luck to all.

 

Mother Earth was 25/1 in a weak looking race and she improved late in the season, running on strongly over a mile in her last 2 runs. Thunder Moon was pretty much the finished article on debut, didnt progress from the National Stakes to the Dewhurst and didnt look to be crying out for an extra furlong either, he was emptying late in the Dewhurst and seemed to handle the ground fine when he came there cantering. Seems to me you have to buy into the excuse that he didnt go on the ground in the Dewhurst to give him any chance, I think he was just exposed in that race and hes a place lay for me.

The last 2 winners Love and Hermosa were also exposed looking with 7 runs at 2, also placed in G1 mile races at back end, Mother Earth had the best profile for the race all along.

 

Fair play to them, top two on their speed ratings and very little between them at the line either.

 

Well I had Master Of The Seas early doors last season ante post and he's been beaten a short head in the end.

Thunder Moon was useless and never travelled at all. Battleground went along more comfortably but found zero and weakened away. The Fav and Second Fav filled the last two places and were behind the 100/1 no hoper Devilwala. Wembley did finish ahead of Devilwala but was also pathetic and Aidan must have fielded his most feeble challenge ever.

Not much between the 1-2-3 and that normally spells mediocrity.

Van Gogh was pushed out in the Derby betting and unbelievably High Definition was cut, despite everything Aidan has run in the UK this season being pure ****e.

Ironically Master Of The Seas did best of the National Stakes first four. I remember thinking that day that he had come to win it and then folded in front. Today he also looked that he might have come to win it but I had a feeling he had taken it up too soon and so it proved, as the Bolger horse wore him down.

This was a return to the big time for Bolger, who has had it quiet for a few years now.

Mutasaabeq wasn't quite good enough and I feel time may show that he beat a poor crew last time. Chindit ran OK but Isuspect that is as good as he is.

Lucky Vega ran a screamer and might get his revenge in the Irish Guineas if going there.

Once again, the horses who ran in the Breeders Cup were no feature in the 2000 Guineas and it was astonishing to see Battleground go off favourite today. I thought his form was lacking.

Despite the Aidan O'Brien show today, St Mark's Basilica hardened to 5/2 Fav for the French Guineas. That is about as appetising as a ****e sandwich but the very best of luck to those backing him.

 

In very broad terms I would say that Mutasaabeq ran a bit slower than he did first time out. Maybe he didn't see out the extra furlong as well as expected.