QIPCO 2000 Guineas, Newmarket, Saturday 1st May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    One Ruler has gone from 25/1 after the Racing Post Trophy to 8/1 without running again. He seems the strongest vibe of the lot and based on that you wouldn't fancy Master Of The Seas. The latter is looking weak in the betting for today's Craven, with the money coming for stablemate La Barrosa. Maybe the first time hood on Master Of The Seas is not helping confidence.

    Charlie Appleby said he was disappointed with Master Of The Seas in Ireland last year, where he felt the horse faded after being too keen early in the race. The colt was certainly pulling far too hard in Meydan last time, where Naval Crown took it from the front. Naval Crown was 2nd in the Free Handicap and Master Of The Seas is going to have to be a lot better today.

    Wembley looks an odd favourite and must be showing something at home to be heading Aidan's contenders at the top of the betting. Aidan has had a pretty crappy meeting thus far and his two in the Craven, Khartoum and Sandhurst, are pretty weak in the betting. If something doesn't happen for Aidan soon, his hand may start to look a bit more of a busted flush, rather than a Royal Flush.

    Chindit is favourite for the Greenham at Newbury on Sunday at 2/1 and he needs to win a moderate looking renewal in terms of strength in depth in order to throw his hat in with any authority. Alkumait is also entered and he had seemed to be progressing fast before a shocker in the Dewhurst. Looking back though, his Mill Reef win is 6 unplaced efforts from 6 subsequent runs and perhaps the 22 lbs rise for winning the Mill Reef was a bit generous in retrospect. There is money for him in the Greenham but the stable are quiet and 1/20, with their last winner in November, so a bit of a leap of faith for me there.

    The last three Guineas winners had won the Racing Post Trophy/Futurity and Mac Swiney would be going for the 4 timer but One Ruler was runner-up there and could be favourite to the trick instead of the Bolger horse, who seemed to improve for the mud at Doncaster.
     
    #21
  2. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I cannot remember off the top of my head when the 2000 Guineas market was last more open than the Cheltenham Gold Cup a fortnight before the event:

    5/1 One Ruler (Charlie Appleby)
    6/1 St Mark’s Basilica (Aidan O’Brien)
    7/1 Wembley (Aidan O’Brien), Thunder Moon (Joseph O’Brien)
    8/1 Mutasaabeq (Charlie Hills)
    10/1 Master Of The Seas (Charlie Appleby), Battleground (Aidan O’Brien)
    11/1 Chindit (Richard Hannon)
    20/1 Lucky Vega (Jessica Harrington), Van Gogh (Aidan O’Brien), Cadillac (Jessica Harrington), High Definition (Aidan O’Brien)

    The market is still dominated by the O’Brien family but the head of the market is now what looks like Godolphin’s number one as those that ran at the Craven meeting failed to impress.

    Whilst Master Of The Seas won the Craven beating stablemate La Barrosa there have to be question marks about the rest of the field and three or four of them never even got in a blow. It is hardly a surprise that Mutasaabeq trades shorter in the market for his very easy pillar-to-post victory in the conditions race on Tuesday and with the disappointing runs of the other Shadwell runners at Newbury, I would not be surprised to see him supplemented.

    Although Chindit won the Greenham (on the nod), he was ridden like a non-stayer but ended up only just getting going in time. I am not sure they would have been that bothered if he had not got the nod as the race on May 1st is where he needs to get his head in front, but I am not convinced that he will be involved in the finish. Pat Dobbs needs to get him balanced coming out of the dip and then get him going. The winner may have gone by then. Newmarket might not be his track. The way that Nando Parrado folded suggests he will not be at HQ, Rhythm Master looked unhappy on the ground and Alkumait clearly did not stay.

    With the market wide open, I think there is a good chance that there will be a large field as I can see a few using it as a Derby prep race (as usual) but I think others that hold an entry but are currently 33/1 or greater in the betting will think it is worth a chance of getting a place in a Classic and good prize money for a near miss.
     
    #22
  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Richard Hannon expressed concerns regarding Newmarket suiting Chindit. He felt the undulations might prevent the horse coming with the steady momentum he needs in order to close up in a finish. It was mooted that both the French and Irish Guineas might be a better fit for the colt but that the Newmarket Guineas is "The one you want to win"

    I would rather send my horse to a race that he had a chance of showing his best form in and don't see the point in running in one that you feel isn't going to suit.

    Looking at Hannon's Etonian, we have a bit of a mystery. Here is a colt who handed Guineas favourite One Ruler his arse on a silver salver when they made their debuts. The unfancied Etonian came with a rattle that blew the Godophin runner away and he went on to win comfortably next time. No factor in the Dewhurst but the ground was soft that day. I thought he was worth another shot at conforming a very taking debut. It seems as if the horse has dropped off the face of the Guineas however and he is entered in the Sandown Classic Trial on Friday over 10F where he is 10/1 to win that race. It seems a severe change of tack after just one poor effort and Chindit, Poetic Flare and Tactical, who filled 9th, 10th and 11th in the Dewhurst have all bounced back this season, so why can't Etonian follow suit? Seems odd to me.
     
    #23
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  4. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    The 2000 is extremely unappealing to me as a betting prospect, you just couldnt be confident about anything winning, you wouldnt be surprised if any of 6 or 7 won it, and they are all under 10/1, thats saturday handicap territory, not Group 1. I guess One Ruler was the value at double figures early on, Battleground has been extremely weak after initially being cut from 9/1 into 7/2, hes now out to 10s in places.
     
    #24
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Couple of Timeform clips

    upload_2021-4-22_1-19-38.png

    upload_2021-4-22_1-22-59.png
     
    #25
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Mutasaabeq will be supplemented for the 2000 Guineas. That seems sensible enough with the race looking very open and several of the leading players will be making their seasonal re-appearances on the big day. The owners are rather wealthy and perhaps this could be a send off to Hamdan if the colt were to win.

    The Charlie Hills colt is shaping as a 7/1 shot for the race now.

    To be honest, the Lincoln Handicap was less open looking than this Guineas does. 8/1 Co Favs anyone?
     
    #26
  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    23 left in the Guineas and Mutasaabeq to be supplemented today. To be frank, you can put a pen through half of those still entered.

    Aidan has five entered. Military Style looks the odd man out with his 106 rating, which is a stone below top rated St Mark's Basilica. I would say it is almost certain that the lowest rated colt will be used to put the pace to the race. The other three are led on ratings by Wembley on 118, then Van Gogh on 114 and Battleground on 112.

    St Mark's Basilica, Wembley and Battleground have all had spells of support ante-post before drifting back slightly, with the least confidence of late being in Battleground. Van Gogh has not been as prominent in the Guineas betting but has been backed for the Derby. If he runs in and wins the Guineas he will be favourite for the Derby and usurp long time market leader High Definition, who must have been the least surprising defector from the 2000 Guineas in a long time. I have a feeling that Van Gogh may excel at 10F and he is interesting as ante post favourite at 7/1 in the French Derby.

    Not sure how many Aidan will ultimately run but the one Ryan Moore ends up on will be almost certain to go off favourite on Saturday. Perhaps it is going to be a tough call if Moore actually does have the choice and it may be that the one he is on ends up being poor value due to punter logic. Moore was on the "wrong" one when he rode Wembley in the Dewhurst and Frankie cashed in on St Mark's Basilica, so who can be confident he'll be right this time? Maybe he will side with Battleground as the less exposed colt with different form lines? I would doubt he would be on Van Gogh unless it were to rain a fair bit soon.

    I feel Thunder Moon will go close at least if he has trained on and is ready to go. He is narrowly favourite on some boards now and has halved from the 10/1 I took earlier in the year without doing anything, so I feel the ante-post bet was a valid policy win or lose.

    Mutasaabeq is popular today and could conceivably go off favourite for the race at this rate.

    Master Of The Seas is also blue in a few places on Odds-checker, while Battleground seems weakish at 8/1.

    Little bits of support for Chindit but One Ruler is going red in most places at 6/1.

    All to play for and it will be interesting to see the jockey arrangements in the 48 hour decs.
     
    #27
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    One Ruler drifting because of the jockey decision to ride MOTS
     
    #28
  9. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Both Chindit and Master of the Seas seemed to get caught a bit flat footed 1f out in their trials. Both showed good attitudes though.

    Mutasaabeq made by far the best visual impression of those to have had a prep this season.

    Across the Irish sea, AO'B is keeping us all guessing as usual. Battleground's run at Goodwood looked better than anything Wembley did at 2. I'd be more inclined to back the former at the prices, but presumably those prices are down to stable whispers and sundry unsubstantiated bollocks.

    The Irish runner that makes most appeal to me at a price is Bolger's Poetic Flare. Earned his trip to Newmarket by winning what looked like a proper trial at Leopardstown. Bulger doesn't send them over here for nothing (cliche alert, soz). I recall Rishi Persad asking him at Ascot, "Will you go back to Ireland for the ***** Stakes now?", to which Bolger replied with his thick as yer mother's gravy accent, "oh, dat is the pleysh we will always returhan to Rishi."


    Mutaasabeq 2pts w @ 6/1
    Poetic Flare 1pt e/w @ 20/1

    Might change my mind tomorrow. And again the day after.
     
    #29
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  10. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Betfair telling us Battleground wont be lining up and Moore will be on Wembley
     
    #30
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  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Just left with the one then
     
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  12. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Good to see the right decision made with Mutasaabeq, Invincible Spirit out of Ghanaati running in the Guineas after only 2 runs, none of this going to York for a listed race nonsense. If there is a top miler in the race its either him or Thunder Moon, I dont see any of the others being anything special.
     
    #32
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  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I’d actually find it quite refreshing if “the lads” and their huge global breeding operation failed to come up with the 2000 Guineas winner. Gives someone else a chance <ok>
     
    #33
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  14. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    None of their horses fit the profile of their normal Guineas winners and given the stable form recently I wouldnt be at all surprised if they didnt win either, although the 1000 looks ridiculously weak and thats definitely their best chance, it will take a very good performance to beat this Hamdan horse in the 2000 imo.

    If Master of the Sea is better than One Ruler then Godolphin wont be winning it either, really looks like the stage is set for the Hamdan storyline, son of Ghanaati, 30k to supplement, Charlie Hills stable in great form as well, its running a race.
     
    #34
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  15. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Despite the crazy drift out to 20+ Battleground does in fact run with Dettori booked, hes now back to 7/1.
     
    #35
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Strange to see the Dewhurst winner missing the Guineas, whilst the two who ran behind him are running and sit first and second favourite for the race. I can only assume that because his best performance was on soft, they feel he may be unsuited by the likely ground, which is good to firm for now.

    Ryan is on Wembley, with Frankie on Battleground and Seamie looks like the third string on Van Gogh.

    I had expected that they might only run Van Gogh if it were soft ground and, as a horse well backed for the Derby, it has to be a slight concern as to whether a fast ground mile will play to his strengths. His form seemed to take a good jump forward when he was second in the Autumn Stakes on soft and then won on heavy in France in good style.

    Battleground won a Vintage Stakes at Goodwood that could hardly have worked out worse since. One win from 22 subsequent runs and that was at 1/4 Fav in a class 5 race. I think the horse who best typifies the Vintage Stakes form is Fountain Cross. The Hannon runner had gone into the Group 2 as a 100/1 shot with a rating of 87. In finishing 5th the horse came out with a new rating of 100. Isn't it just too much of a coincidence to think that he suddenly found almost a stone? It is not as if he had not had the opportunity to show he was better than 87. As ever, because it is a Group 2 contest the assessor gives the winner a certain level of rating and the others are ranked based on that. The problem is that Fountain Cross has not looked anything a 100 horse. His rating has continued to drop with every run since and is now down to 85. Isn't it more likely that he never was as good as 100 and was probably, at best, a 90 rated horse?

    Looking at the Breeders Cup race Battleground was runner up in, the winner Fire At Will was out with the washing on his February reappearance and then only 3rd of 6 when 11/10 Fav for a Group 3 this month. Both of those efforts were well below the 116 the Racing Post gave him for winning at the Breeder's Cup and he had come into that race with a best of 106 on RPR and as a 33/1 outsider. He beat Battleground 3 lengths and with only one winner from that Juvenile race it doesn't look great. Cadillac, who was 4th in the Breeder's Cup race misses the Guineas and that is a bit puzzling for a horse rated 114 on official figures facing a very open renewal. I would want my horse in the fray in such circumstances.

    With St Mark's Basilica out, you can see the logic in Ryan Moore being on Wembley. He is the highest rated of Aidan's three and has the magic Galileo seed in him. The downside is his best form is in defeat and for me Thunder Moon had the legs of him on faster ground. He seems short enough based on just one win in a maiden but the trainer has the knack of getting one primed for Newmarket and he needs respecting as a horse with placed form in Group 1 races.

    Overall the Aidan O'Brien runners represent about a 44% chance of landing the Guineas and a generous bookie might give you 6/4 that the trainer wins the race. O think I would rather just back Wembley at 4/1. Battleground is starting to shorten but I feel the Frankie factor is causing that and the colt was ominously weak at times in the build up to this.

    I do worry in case Mutasaabeq is the 120 horse in the pack but I still wonder how good his trial race was.

    I'll be chuffed if Thunder Moon or Master Of The Seas can win it but suspect the latter horse may just be a few pounds short of the class to win an average Guineas.
     
    #36
  17. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Poetic Flare <ok>
     
    #37
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  18. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Looks like Van Gogh is very much an A player for Obrien, doubt well be seeing him in France before October with St Marks Basillica sent for the French classics. This is the deepest Guineas for a long time and impossible to be confident about a winner but for me the top 3 prospects are Battleground, Van Gogh and Mutasaabeq, with Van Gogh obviously the one for 10f+.
     
    #38
  19. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    I rarely bet antepost but had a couple of bets last year which I now notice are the two favourites for tomorrow!
    I’m on Wembley at 20/1 and Thunder Moon at 7/1.

    i liked Battleground a lot last summer though so will be having a further bet on that and also Master of the Seas who I thought was impressive at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago.
     
    #39
  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Proform have Master Of The Seas and Poetic Flare top of their speed ratings with 79 each from their trials.

    poetic flare is next in with 77 from 2 yo race then Naval Crown, Wembley and Mystery Smiles on 75
     
    #40

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