Campo, I can see that you are feeling the strain that befalls all ante-post punters who have placed bets on a 'possible' runner in a big race; Camelot. I am approaching The Arc from the opposite direction in that I have other a-p bets but not Camelot. I will probably cover my othrer outlays by backing Camelot once it has been confirmed by AOB, is still in the race after the first foirfeit stage on Tuesday or a firm offers a price close to my judgement. You are correct in that the exchanges do not give a guide to a horse's participation unless someone offers a large 'bet' stake at outlandish odds; in this case, say, £100 at 20. A better guide would be that Corals have offered 7/1 and sustained this price for two/three days! I find it strange that there has been no fresh comment from AOB since Monday 24 September. As the two forfeits take place on Tuesday and Wednesday I presume most firms will go NRNB at this time. Good luck!!
I certainly am Bayernkenny. In hindsight, backing Camelot for this prior to the Derby, was a major error. Makes it interesting though. I won quite a lot on Camelot in the derby at 5/2 & 10/1 (double to win the 2000 G's); swings & roundabouts. I was in a similar frame of mind 2 weeks before the GN where I had a large investment on Sunnyhillboy but I managed to phone JJ for a positive update on the sunday morning when the exchange prices suggested it was a certain non runner. Even if I could contact O'brien, I'm not convinced I could glean anything meaningful! I think they're waiting on ground conditions & possily Jockey availaility & draw.
I know I might be a bit of a sheep but Camelot as taken massive support on Betfair and Betdaq this evening. 5.8 and 6.8 now. Not sure if it was on the back of AOBs comments today saying a decision would be announced on Tuesday or Wednesday. If he does run, who would you have ride him and why?
Camelots' participation? I am trying to work out the pertinence of a decision on 'Tuesday or Wednesday'. These are the days of the two forfeits; are Coolmore waiting on the availability of Ryan Moore who would ride Sea Moon if taking part? All the weather forecasts suggest rain on Tuesday/Wednesday so is the going to be a factor in their decision. The draw is not until Friday so that will not be relevant to the decision. No market moves with bookmakers apart from Corals returning to 6/1; in fact Stan James have gone 6/1 from 5/1. The exchanges (sheep led or not) have brought Camelot back in line with the bookmakers however St Nicholas Abbey has shortened considerably. Still waiting for inspiration!!!!
Well it was forecast sunny all week but the forecasts haven't a clue. Yesterday the forecast for here at mid day was sunny; and that was at mid day. The sun came out at 1.30 but not for long. The forecast here has changed to light/moderate rain up to and including Thursday and then cloudy/sunny from then until at least Sunday. Pretty much the same in Paris.
I see that Nathaniel is now into 4/1... Here's hoping the money coming in for him is good for me come race day...
Racing Post stating Longchamp is currently soft. Surprised but, if true & if it doesn't dry out, this is a major concern for both Camelot & Saonois.
Looks like no Danedream in the Arc A horse in Cologne has had a blood test return positive for infectious anemia. Everything horse related on hold for 3 months meaning Danedream will not be able to travel - such a shame
Blimey. A real shame she won't get to defend her crown. I don't think she would win it this year but fully deserved her chance to have a crack and would have made a fist of it!
Here's the current weather forecast for Paris http://www.metcheck.com/EUROPE/europe_forecast_7days.asp?locationID=1798
Just to put this Danedream thing into some context. Thankfully she is fit and well. There is nothing wrong with her and the horse in question was stabled a long away away from her. As far as they know Danedream is unaffected. The problem here is that the German authorities may be forced to impose a travel ban on their horses for the safety of other animals. Whether or not they could consider testing Danedream fully and proving conclusively that she is fit, healthy, and uncontaminated and therefore argue her case to travel, is another thing. It would take some balls but surely there is a chance we can think this through logically and allow her to race as well as be safe in the knowledge she is not carrying any of the illness herself?
The course where the horse is stabled has been placed under quarantine. I'd say that just about ends Danedreams participation. I thought she had a decent chance, but it looks like that chance has gone. I've taken a cheeky ew punt on Sea Moon at 16's - unlikely to win, but a great place shout.
Ladbrokes clear top price on Camelot, this is the biggest indicator for me that its very unlikely that he will run.
Agree Lads are the best indicator Boris, although they won't have taken much on Camelot upto now, havn't actually pushed it out, arn't bigger than the exchanges & would have the biggest anti post exposure on Orfevre, so perhaps just alancing their book a little.
Ron's One weather forecast for Paris this morning saying no more rain before the Arc! Boris, If Camelot's definately out they won't declare it this morning at 9.30 am.
According to France Galop eighteen left in The Arc; Camelot, Imperial Monarch and Reliable Man included but no Danedream. Saonois not yet included as runner; supplemental stage not until Thursday 4 October.
a couple of weeks ago I posted on here that I couldn't see beyond Snow Fairy and Danedream. Now they are both out! Nathaniel looks an increasingly good bet.
It actually shows light rain until Sat lunch time then sun and sunny all day Sunday. Mind you, it also says the same for here (2.5hrs away) but it's been sunshine and baking hot all morning. As I said, at present, the forecasters haven't a clue what it will be like in 30mins let alone the next week.
That's a terrible price on Camelot given we don't even know if he'll run. Masterstroke is the one I know very little about if I'm honest. Is there much discussion in this thread on this horse? Disappointed to see Yellow and Green has recently been purchased and will no longer wear yellow and green silks. That did make me chuckle. A quick glance at the card and like the look of Meandre e/w who is 16/1 and possibly needed the run LTO when 1L 2nd to the current fav. I won't be backing SNA this time round as much as I'd love to see him land this race in particular I'm not convinced he goes this way round. Nathaniel the best of the British contingent based on his run behind Danedream at Ascot. If the trainers Championship is really tight perhaps we'll see Camelot, SNA, Nathaniel on Champions Day as well just trying to scoop some place money.
