this one beat that one by that much and that beat that by that much so this means that Saint Baudolino had a shocking trip in the French Derby, IM got badly outpaced and stayed on past beaten horses, the race IM won in France is suspect, obrien nicked it from the front and Main Sequence would surely have won with a clear run, I wouldnt trust that form at all. And the "Snow Fairy has improved" line is nonsense, only had to run up to last years Irish Champion 2nd to win this years renewal, Nathaniel is about 3 lengths off So You Think at 10f. Away from Epsom 10f is her trip and I cant have her winning an Arc. All the main runners seem to have issues with something or other, that is, all except Orfevre, he goes on anything and he will demolish this lot, he is made for the Arc test and he is rock solid.
That's what I like about you Joe, the way you really sit on the fence! Had to say I was impressed with ther way Orfevre initially quickened in the Arc trial but was at odds as to the response under pressure. Still think it might be fond out off a true pace but as you have said, the alternative theory is that Orfevre will be better for it! Camelot rumours are really topsy turvy, some saying he will stay on as a 4 Y O and yet the exchanges seeing good support.- into 6s and 13/2 on those now from 7s last night. The big clue is that Imperial Mpnarch is being laid off the boards- he looks most unlikely to run which yet again is a terrible decision by Ballydoyle for a horse who has done very little wrong in his career and has a French Group1 to his name! Is he not running because they know Camelot will? Or if Camelot runs, is it too big a risk of embarassment if Imperial Monarch went on to win the Arc?! Smoke and Mirrors!!
Must admit I'm more looking forward to the Marcel Bousac and the L'abbaye than the Arc this year. If Wizz Kid gets a decent draw she wins.
Hi Boris. Re This beat that & therefor. I agree that the french derby was a messy race with lots of hard luck stories but isn't the Arc usually ? Saonois was clever enough & had enough tactical speed to weave its way through from midfield & accelerated away from saint Baudolino who had every chance inside the final furlong, despite interference. I used this theory to back saonois for the arc at a big price prior to the Prix Neil where his winning style was impressive, despite the slow time of the race. I also backed Orfevre EW and agree it has a major chance. I also agreed that Main Sequence was very unlucky & perhaps, should have beaten IM but that Camelot had comfortably beaten Main sequence in the derby. These are my 3 against the field .
I think you are right about the dam's genes. They do seem to override the sire in terms of stamina; at least there are plenty of examples of it. I wouldn't be at at all surprised if Camelot didn't stay a truly run 14f. However the first 10f of the Leger were 6 seconds slower than last year and therefore I don't think the Leger was lost due to lack of stamina. I think it was lost due to the winner having the pace to slip the field and Camelot, having been cleverly trapped on the rails, took too long to get going. He did make up ground once he got going (reduced 3l to ¾l). Not having watched the race since, I can't be sure but did he not go away from the rest of the field? Given how slowly the first 10f were run, I think the jockey made a mistake taking him to the rails. Had he been braver, and gone for home with or before Encke we would either have a Triple Crown winner or be in no doubt that he didn't stay (similarly if there had been a pacemaker to ensure a more even gallop). I'm not saying that he does stay 14f but I am of the view that lack of stamina was not the cause of that defeat. As regards the Irish Derby, the ground was totally unsuitable for a horse with his action and, in my opinion, should not have been subjected to it (he was clearly very unhappy on it and I'll never know why IM didn't run instead). As regards the Guineas, he won despite the going because his stamina came into play over 8f on softish ground with a stiff uphill finish. To stand any chance in the Arc he must have a sound surface. PS. The ground at Newmarket was good to soft; at the Curragh it was soft to heavy. All his other races, on which his high rating was achieved, were on god or good to firm.
Hi Ron. When encke made his move he shot about 3 lengths clear after being ridden for a few strides. camelot, a few strides later, was then ridden when he jinked/rolled around & chased Encke to the line. Camelot made no inroads on that 3L deficite until close to the line & didn't improve its margin over the rest. Basically stayed on at one pace. Whilst the ground at N/mkt for 2000 G's was being described as G/S, the times of the races that day suggested it was softer. Valid arguements Ron & I think we need to see Camelot run on a sound surface in the Arc to resolve it. Neither of us can be sure until the horse 'puts it into practice' !
Anyone got any views on Yellow and Green ? I suppose I am only thinking about the performances of last year's three year old fillies; particularly the weight advantages from older horses and colts! She would seem to have been given a typical 'Arc' build up by Clement and ran a promising race in the Prix Vermeilles.
well there definitely isn't any terrestrial coverage this year which is a pity. I imagine it might have been different had Frankel run it! hopefully should still be able to see the races on one of the betting websites.
The exchanes are very much suggesting that a Camelot run is not on the cards. Drifted from 8s to 14s and to me I think thats probably about it for him- he will return as a 4 year old. Market moves have been for Sea Moon, and support for Nathaniel, both of which must be ground related- particularly Sea Moon, who is said to only go to the Arc if it rides soft.
Hi Topclass Are punters simply reacting to the weather. Whatever the current groing at Longchamp, the forecast for the next 5 days is dry & sunny so why back Sea Moon. The problem with reacting to the exchanges in antipost markets, is that people behave like sheep & assume there is concealed information behind the price moves.
True Campo. I think this is the crucial stage though now- we are less than 2 weeks away and the market will tell the story about Camelot. Do we have any rain forecast for Longchamp prior to the race?
My view is that the betfair position is probably guesswork as there is currently money available to lay between 15/1 & 30/1. If this was solid info, surely people in th know would have quickly snapped this up. Met office says no rain for next 8 days but I always treat weather forecasts with caution. Perhaps this is down to people looking at the rain in their part of the country & assuming .....
BBC weather is forecasting rain for Paris middle of next week Tues/Weds/Thurs ................. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2988507
Do you mean the lighy rain shower for Tuesday OddDog ? Surprising as they get their data from the met Office ! When you click on tuesday it just shows cloud ! However, as they normally struggle to get this right for the next day .......
Ron's One forecast predicts - 1.7mm on Tues, 6.2mm Wedns, 1.3mm Thurs. Dry & sunny befrore & after. Surely this is drying ground overeall & hopefully dters them from watering !
Campo, the Frogs habitually water their premier tracks, so Longchamp will definitely have the taps on. It does not seem likely that it will be soft enough for the likes of Sea Moon to run, so my early-season ante post bet is toast. I will believe that Camelot is going to run when I see him in the pre-race parade and cantering to the start. I love the fact that ineligible gelding Bonfire is still in the betting at 66/1 with Stan James. For me, even though the Arc Trials were all unsatisfactory on the clock, I believe that the Arc winner is one of Danedream, Shareta, Saonois or Orfevre. The best British chance is Nathaniel.
Hi Quartermoon. Do you believe that the Ballydoyle Tales of Camelot's greatness were all just Myth & that they fear the Joust on 7th October? Do you think that they are still pondering they're Quest aRound the Table ( Ground condition,Draw,Jockey ooking etc ) or that a decision has already been taken ? Bonfire aside, the bookies grabbed the opportunity to markedly shorten the rest when withdrawing Camelot from the market but failed to lengthen anything when they reintroduced days later. You need to be as fearless as one of the legendary Knights to back Camelot amid all this uncertainty & the rest are far too short now prior to the draw (50/50 as to low or high) & supplementary stage. I also rate Orfevre & Saonois but still believe in Camelot & Father Christmas !
The weather forecast changes every time I look at it - once or twice a day. This morning they're saying 30+ mls on Wedns & 7 mls on arc day . Anybodies guess as to true expected rainfall & ground conditions.
