Hi Top Class. I think that the issue of soft ground with Camelot is one of stamina. I would be worried for its chances on genuinly soft ground ( the French often call this wrong) & I'm not convinced that they would run on it again. Ron. I lost a couple of posts today which I think you need to vet & ok for pulishing.
The Arc betting on betfair is interesting in that Snow Fairy is drifting due to possile soft ground, yet Saonois is being backed when he clearly hates soft ground !
Who will ride Camelot if he runs though. Joseph O'Brien can't do that weight no chance and to put up 3 or 4lbs overweight in the Arc would be ridiculous
Hi Rainbowview. That's very interesting & not something I had considered. K. Fallon would be my choice as I think he rides really well in the Arc. Thanks for posting my earlier responses Ron.
Mick Kinane won a legends race at Doncaster, wha sort of shape was he in?! Can't make my mind up on Camelot. Thought he looked by far and away the best 3 Y O colt of his generation but the piss weak form and the St Leger defeat leave questionmarks. At least there has been an element of value in his Arc price now. He looked utterly menacing when cruising through the field in the Leger but as we saw, he didn't stay as we would have liked. He could certainly get himself into contention in the Arc, but can he win it? If he genuinely is a fair bit ahead of Imperial Monarch at home, you would have to think he holds a chance given how Imperial Monarch looked head and shoulders ahead of most of the French Derby field (I know it was in efeat but e would have mowed the lot down if it was over a mile and a half), so it makes me wonder.
Hi Top Class. I thought main sequence looked very unlucky behind Imperial Monarch in the Grand Prix de Paris & Camelot beat it comfortably at Epsom. Saint Baudolino was 3/4L behind Imperial Monarch that day & Saonois was equally a comfortale 3/4L ahead of Saint Baudolina in the French derby. Different ground conditions but I think Camelot's form stands up although I'm not convinced we've seen the best from Saonois yet. I think its hard to Guage the form of these two against their elders with the generous 3 yr old weight advantage they'll receive in the Arc.
I don't agree that Camelot didn't stay Toppy but there are several theories knocking around so who knows? As far as the Arc is concerned I think we have to pray for good ground. That ground at the Curragh didn't do him any good, I'm sure.
I remember getting drenched the night before the 2005 Arc about 1/2 mile from the course. Some very heavy rain that night but the ground was still being called unchanged G/S the next day. Hurricane Run's time was 3 secs above standard suggesting nearer Good ground. Do they have excellent drainage at Longchamp ?
Hi Ron/Topspeed. Re Camelot's stamina. camelot jinked & rolled around when coming under pressure in the closing stages of both the Irish derby & leger which is a good sign of a horse being very tired & beyond its stamina limitations. Apparently, the sectional times for the last three furlongs at the Curragh were also slow which supports the theory. This didn't happen on soft ground at Newmarket over the shorter mile nor at epsom on faster, less stamina sapping ground over 1 1/2 miles at epsom. Camelot's dam also had stamina limitations & there is a theory that stamina is derived mainly through the dam's genes. Just an alternative opinion!
Has anyone seen J A McGrath's ('Aussie Jim') article in today's telegraph regarding the doubt of Camelot's participation in this year's Arc; possibly alluded to in 'rainbowview's' post at 08.04pm yesterday. Surely a decision must be made soon!! Campo, not sure about Longchamp's drainage hovever have been in Paris when, according to Paris Turf, Auteuil has been described as very soft with Longchamps given as good to soft; does the terrain favour drainage at Longchamps?
Hi bayerkenny. Just read the article and admit it is a concern and an angle that I hadn't previously considered. Also, most Arc winners had been ridden by the same jockey all season. If they had already decided against a change of jockey in the Arc, wouldn't they have announced its retirement for the season straight after the Leger? Interesting re the difference in the Paris ground conditions if they can be trusted!
I'm not one for bold statements but Camelot will not be winning the Arc. Place lay all day for me, the race will not suit him, he lacks gears and will get done for toe leaving the false straight.
I agree with Cyclonic in that Snow Fairy and Danedream look the ones to beat. by the way does anyone know if this is being televised this year? I am pretty sure the BBC won't cover it and I don't think the Arc is part of the Channel 4 contract.
Camelot qualifies on the trend almost as vital as the draw one (17 out of the last 19 winners emerged form a single figure draw) namely that 12 out of the last 13 winners had won a middle-distance Group 1 that season by 2+ lengths. The likes of Danedream, Nathaniel, Snow Fairy and many more fall down on this stat. I’m the first to acknowledge that trends are there solely to be broken but people if something drawn in single figures has won a Group 1 heat this tem by 2+lengths then there is compelling evidence that they are going to be a major player.
I suppose if the St Leger hasn't taken too much out of Camelot there is every chance that may turn out to have been a good prep race for him
So that's why they ran Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion - so he could slaughter Fame And Glory 2.5 lengths and fit the stat
Papers this morning are saying that Ballydoyle will soon announce Camelot will not run in the Arc but will remain in training as a 4yo
