In my humble opinion, Nathaniel will only be in the mix given soft ground that the others may not cope well with. Whilst he is a fantastic horse I rate highly, I think that on good ground at least one of Snow Fairy (again), Danedream (again) or Orfevre would be too good. Who the winner is beyond that I have no idea - suspect a good draw for any of the above three would be enough to swing a very close and high quality contest.
Given that all of the ‘trials’ races have taken place, the only things that can realistically influence the Arc now are the draw (which we will not get until the Friday of the race), the ground (which can also change a couple of days before the race) and running plans. Looking at the principals in the betting (assuming they are going to run): 9/2 Danedream – has the best collateral form this year at the highest level; the one to beat. 9/2 Orfevre – impressive winner of Prix Foy. If the stronger pace of the Arc suits, no reason to believe that he cannot give Japan a first win after a couple of seconds and a disqualified third. 6/1 Nathaniel – would probably prefer some cut in the ground but has been prepared for the race and is definitely good enough. 7/1 Snow Fairy – genuine quality mare who would prefer quick ground and has plenty to find with last year’s winner. 10/1 Shareta – excellent victory in the Prix Vermeille and arguably the best chance of the home team if she can get closer to the German filly than last year. 10/1 Saonois – would be shorter in the betting if from one of the top yards, good win in the Prix Niel showing a useful turn of foot and must have the best chance of the three year olds. Will need to be supplemented in race week. 14/1 Meandre – well put in his place by Orfevre over course and distance; hard to see the form being reversed. 16/1 St Nicholas Abbey – would prefer quick ground according to trainer but has been beaten by several of these and hard to fancy. 16/1 Masterstroke – has shown progressive form and could well be worth a place in the line-up as a dark horse for Godolphin France. 20/1 Sea Moon – will only run if it rains significantly. Enough said. 22/1 Dunaden – difficult to give any realistic chance after defeats by many of the principals. 25/1 Imperial Monarch – enterprisingly ridden for victories at top level; could he try to make all in the Arc? 33/1 Last Train – will have to find something more after being beaten fair and square in the Prix Niel. 33/1 Bayrir – will also have to find extra after the Prix Niel. Will the Aga Khan supplement him? 33/1 Galikova – has been nothing short of disappointing this season and hard to fancy. 33/1 No Risk At All – reportedly a non-runner.
Two weeks to go! From the list above I think we can take out Dunaden (Caulfield/Melbourne Cups), Last Train (according to Fabre), Galikova (according to Head), No Risk At All (Injury?) and Bayrir (Aga Khan has two other runners - BC Turf likely). We can add Kesampour (according to Delzangles) plus the first and fourth in the Prix Vermeilles; Solemia and Yellow and Green. This would give fourteen runners to which could be added pacemakers and 'dreamers' to give a field of, say, eighteen. As previously intimated above the going and the draw would govern single choice punters. From what I have seen from 'Paris Turf' the French seem to favour Saonois from their horses and the pari-mutuel will, albeit not to the same extent as with Deep Impact, be slewed by Japanese visitors to Longchamp. This may result in some strange p-m prices for, say, Snow Fairy and Nathaniel. Although I have adopted my usual scattergun antepost betting (three non runners already) to this year's Arc my current 'fancies' are: Orfevre Saonois - price if trained by Fabre/Rouget/De Royer Dupre Masterstroke - cannot ignore a three year old Fabre runner however I realise form to date suggests a deal of improvement required. Good luck to everyone, especially first time visitors to Longchamp. As usual I am waiting for the 'Week-End International de L'Obstacle' at Auteuil in early November. Just seen AOB's comments about Camelot!!!
Just back from visiting my mum in care home. Had a look at the full article about Camelot's 'next' race in the RP. I cannot believe that 'the boys' as AOB calls them would run Camelot as an afterthought in The Arc. If it ran down the field at it's optimum distance what would such an effort do to the horse's stud fees? I see that about five firm's are offering, in the main, 6/1 about Camelot!!!! I would suggest about 12/1 would be more appropriate: 1. The form of the 2000 G's is shocking - no Group winners from the race apart from Camelot. 2. The form of the Derby is slightly better - only Group winner was Thought Worthy (Main Sequence second) in a slowly run Great Voltigeur. 3. AOB's poor record with three year olds in The Arc. 4. General form of this year's three year olds against older horses; only Masterstroke has won an all age middle distance race (Group 2 at Deauville) against older horses. I do however believe that 8/1 will be the best offer if the decision is finally made to run Camelot.
Hi Bayernkenny. re shocking 2000 G's form. Power won Irish 2000 G's & Caspar Netscher won German 2000 G's. Caspar Netscher was beaten 8 1/2 L by Camelot but ran Excelebration to 2L in the Prix du Moulin. Most of the horses camelot beat in the Derby havn't raced against their elders so how do we know they're inferior? Why did Camelot have an 'Arc prep type' summer break just to run 'fresh' in the Leger? I suspect that the Arc was always the plan.
Campo, sorry about 2000 G's oversights. What would you think is a 'fair' price should Camelot run in The Arc?
Not sure. Took some 20's & 30's on Betfair & had backed at 5's prior to Derby. My main concern is its apparent lack of acceleration. The down hill run to the line probably helped at epsom. Isn't the finish at Longchamp also slightly downhill ?
Had a look at my programmes from earlier visits to Longchamps however I could find nothing about the terrain of the closing straight. From memory if the finish is downhill it is only a very slight incline. I agree about the possible lack of immediate acceleration for Camelot which could be important in, say, an eighteen runner Arc.
The recent posts have been prompted by an article in today's RP. There is really no change from last Tuesday where AOB stated that Camelot may have one more race this season and may stay in training next year. It does however look that, should there be one more race in 2013, it would be The Arc rather than the Champion Stakes. There was no definitive intention to confirm Camelot to The Arc in the article. The article stated that a decision would be taken in about one week!?!?
Thanks Bayernkenny. I hadn't noticed an incline on my visits either but I thought I had read it somewhere recently. re the delay in confirming camelot's participation; perhaps they're waiting to better guage the potential going as very soft ground would probably scupper its chances.
Welcome Campo. If it's soft there wouldn't be much point in turning up. He struggled at the Curragh and would have no chance in the Arc.
Have already checked various 14 day weather forecasts which suggest soft going unlikely; only problem could be excessive watering!! This should give all proposed runners an even chance; from Snow Fairy (firm) to Nathaniel (soft).
Thanks for the welcome Ron. Re Soft conditions. If the Going is very soft on the day, I don't think Saonois, Snow Fairy,Danedream etc would have much chance either. How do we gat a true assessment of the ground prior to the Arc as the french going reports are notoriously unreliable ? Interesting that you have to go back to 1936 ( I think) with Corrida to find the last winner of the Arc that had failed to win in a previous attempt. This doesn't bode well for Snow Fairy, Shareta,St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre etc. You have to go back to Alleged in 1978 to find a back to back winner like Danedream although Sagace would have, had it not been disqulified in 1985. Alleged also was 2nd in the Leger prior to winning the Arc first time. I backed against Camelot in the Leger with anti post EW's on Thought Worthy & Encke as I thought it was vulnerable after an 11 week absence together with stamina concerns ( Dam & Stamina sapping soft ground run in Irish derby) I'm keeing the faith re Camelot fot the Arc but have had an EW saver on Orfevre at 16's with Ladbrokes (Looked the best the Japanese have sent across so far & booking Cristophe for the ride) and a win with Betfair on Saonois at 150's as i liked his win over Saint Baudolino in the French Derby. Also backed a few non runners though, like Golden Lilac & Farhh.
Could anyone give me the jist of Pricewise's case for Masterstroke in the RP the other day please ? I thought its form looked well below the required standard & that its preparation for a 3 yr old Fabre Arc contender, of no midsummer break & the no prep run, was strange & therefor unlikely to participate.
According to Martin Crisford Masterstroke will be Godolphin's only runner in The Arc. You are correct that the form is below the standard to win an Arc. The original price of 20/1 after the Grand Prix de Deauville probably represents the true value however the Fabre effect and the Pricewise choice have 'falsely' shrunk the price to about 12/1. The form of the Deauville race is pretty good and the position of Top Trip gives a close comparison with The Prix du Jockey Club form. I agree that the preparation is not consistent with the usual Fabre three year old route however it may be that the horse is improving or Godolphin want a runner in an 'open' year. Also, unlike many other runners, the horse's form is not ground dependent. My original reason for backing Masterstroke is that his sire is Monsun, a horse I followed in the past.
Thanks for that. Is Masterstroke really improving rapidly? Top Trip was giving Masterstroke 3 lbs & lost by 1 length with both horses finishing fast. Earlier in May, Top Trip beat Masterstroke 1/2L at level weights. That seams to be a consistent formline! In the French Derby, I thought Saonois beat Top Trip quite comfortably by 2 1/2L at level weights. Agree re Monsun.
RAIN FEARS FOR FAIRY BID Ed Dunlop fears the current spell of wet weather may force him to rethink his Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe plans for Snow Fairy. Having returned from a serious injury better than ever, the globetrotting mare earned her place in the end-of-season showpiece by beating Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey in the Irish Champion Stakes. "Officially she's a better horse than she was last year which is even more phenomenal after having such a serious tendon injury," Dunlop told At The Races. "We've been lucky that the procedure worked but we must never forget she has a huge will to win. Her heart has always been enormous, she's not very big but she wants to win. "Sadly those that go faster tend to injure themselves more. "It's a weather-watch. I believe we've got rain coming in and if it's going on in Paris, we won't be going." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Interesting. The rain would be a potential game changer. I personally could not see Snow Fairy winning the Arc even on good ground, I think her tactical speed has improved slightly however (To win convincingly over 10f was an improvement on her 3 Y O form) and she could certainly run another big race. That said, her close proximity to So You Think in last years champion means she had the tactical speed to cope with 10f even last season. I personally think Nathaniel could potentially reverse with her narrowly over 12f although that would be far from certain on good ground. Soft ground- would that rule out any Arc bid for Camelot giving his supposed dislike for the sticky ground in the Irish Derby?
