Shareta will run a good race but she wont win, not good enough, im sure her backers will have 5 or so seconds in the straight were they think they have a chance of winning but she will get swamped.
It looks a pretty safe bet, not my idea of a bet but I can see why a certain type of punter would be interested.
I've gone for the first two in the Prix Foy to finish 1 and 2 on Sunday. I can't work out why Meandre is double the price of Shareta. Meandre had Shareta easily held in June, am I missing something?
Fkin marvellous. Iv been requesting that horse to go up on Betdaq for days and they didnt add her. Numpties. Was hoping to cover her at crazy odds.
Did no one see the Irish Oaks? Badly outpaced at the Curragh and won by outstaying the others who hated the ground. Hard to fancy that horse to win an Arc im afraid, no matter how soft the ground, Nathaniel had no chance of winning and this is the second string afterthought! 100k to the Rothschilds is like a pound to us, means nothing that they have supplemented her, they had made plans to go there on the big day probably and with Nathaniel coming out they have decided to send her, she hasnt been aimed at the race, her form is woefully short of winning an Arc in she is severely lacking in speed for the race. She wont be in the first 5 and I will guarantee that, dont waste your money on that crooked mobs family day out.
Just had another look at the Prix Niel; how is the supplemented Bayrir (second) 16/1 and Kesampour (fifth) 40/1. The distances were a short head, a neck and a head. The going on Sunday will surely prove more advantagous to Kesampour. I feel Bayrir is a false price and look forward to the opening PMU price on Sunday morning. May have a small interest if price reaches a more sensible quote of, say, 25/1. All soft ground horses getting supported and according to Longchamp Course Director the going could become 'very soft'. I am aware of the vagaries of ground descriptions which sometimes appear in the French horseracing publications.
There is a new series of Merlin start on the BBC on Saturday. Is this an omen for Camelot? Obviously it is disappointing that Danedream, Nathaniel and Snow Fairy will not be at Longchamp on Sunday; however, it is a surprise that there will not be a maximum Arc field in such an open year. I had expected that three or four more three-year-olds would have thrown their hats into the ring as they will not be paying for their feed by standing in their boxes. Those of us venturing over for the weekend will be taking our rain coats as the forecast is for rain on Saturday and possible showers on Sunday. Perhaps that is why Sea Moon does not appear to be making the trip to Canada. I might get a run for my money – just as well I did not throw the betting slip away! The entries for both days can be seen by following this link to the France Galop Fixtures website and clicking the links for 6-Octo-12 LONGCHAMP or 7-Octo-12 LONGCHAMP. Looking at the runners for Sunday, there are going to be some single figure fields despite the money on offer. In the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère most of the remaining entries hail from Britain and Ireland. I will be hoping for a John Gosden victory in the Prix de l’Opera. With my career-long jinx on Izzi Top (she loses when I back her) will she or Andrew Lloyd Webber’s The Fugue be the one?
The race in June was run at an absolute crawl as none of the four runners wanted to be in front. There are two pacemakers on Sunday so I would not expect a married man’s gallop let alone a crawl. Bayrir will be coupled with the Aga Khan’s other runners on the PMU. If you want to back Shareta, Bayrir or Kesampour alone you will have to take the British bookmakers’ odds.
You can send me the money and I'll pop into Town. The PMU is in a hotel. You go in, place your bets and order a beer at the same counter and then just sit down and watch the races. Only done it the once, for the novelty.
That sounds cool Ron...bit like some pubs over here who lay a book! Have to agree with Eddie re Great Heavens and the Irish Oaks.She was totally outpaced early in the straight and only got going late,remarkably similar to Blue Bunting the year before. The fact she's carrying 8-8 doesn't really reasonate with me since the same age colts are only carrying the extra 3lb sex tariff. Her entry does seem to be an after thought but she was in training for Champions Day and her work will have been stepped up since Nathanial's defection and she is fresh not having run since July.She is also improving fast and who knows how good she has become in the last three months? However,that remark could apply to a host of runners.One thing definately in her favour will be the ground..there appears to be some right old frontal junk sidling in from the Atlantic on Sunday morning. I'm still holding fire...favs won't shorten much and the ante post e/w book is quite frankly a disgrace.
Agree Dexter. Camelot is very short now, considering it only has a 50% chance of a decent draw & the ground could be against it. Masterstroke was only 9/1 on Betfair this morning ! Would Godolphin be quite so happy with Frankie riding Camelot if they really thought their's had a strong chance. Golden Lilac & then Last Train appeared to be Fabre's initial hopes before their failure to live upto expectations. It only beat a handicapper on its best/latest run & its proximity to Top Trip in receipt of 3 lbs gives it a mountain to climb with saonois etc. Also no prep run since break. Surely it should have a zero on the end of its current price. What am I missing ?
As someone has said on the RP website, Orfevre gets dropped out the back early anyway so draw not too much of an inconvenience to him
Might have a go through these for fun and see if that narrows it down: 10/10 - Won a Group 1 race previously 9/10 - Raced 4 or more times that season 8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter. Odds done on those around or less than. 8/10 - Won by a 3 years-old 8/10 - Won from stall 6 or lower 8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously 8/10 - Won their last race 8/10 - Won at least 5 times previously 7/10 - Had raced at Longchamp before
