Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

When Persian King was runner-up in the French Derby Andre Fabre stated that the horse didn't stay. It seems hard to see how he would have developed into a 12F horse out of the blue. Perhaps the trainer thinks it worth a go in an open year and he'll certainly have the legs of Stradivarius for one.

After his latest race and success, Fabre said that it was the first time this season that he had been able to prepare the colt for a race in the manner he normally would and that he was confident that he would win that day. There was plenty of money on Persian King in the Moulin because I was toying with backing him at 12/1 the evening before the race but went with stablemate Victor Ludorum instead. Persian King was returned 6/1 on what was described as SOFT ground on the ATR results. On the Racing Post results he is shown as being returned at 18/5 or roughly 7/2 but worryingly they state that the going was GOOD.

This sort of contradictory going is common with French Racing and does little to help punters. Judging by the time of the race, there is no way it was soft ground but a punter looking at the ATR result would assume that Persian King goes on the surface, when he actually seemed to flounder on it behind Palace Pier. I just cannot see Persian King staying a mile and a half and on very soft ground he wouldn't have a prayer as a son of Kingman in my opinion.

Some 4/1 available on Love now and that seems a "man the lifeboats" price. O'Brien is putting a brave spin on it with the talk of the filly being stronger now but I feel that the supplementing of Serpentine and running of Mogul are indicators that they are not confident about Love coping on the likely very soft going.

Enable is best priced at 11/8 now. I think seeing Japan at 12/1 in places after the season he has had tells us how desperate things are.

 

Looks a penalty kick for Enable really, should probably be odds on now, the ground was always going to decide the outcome of this. 8/13 or 4/7 is probably what she should be.

 

A.O.B. chats about his chances.

 

John Gosden on Enable and Strad.

 

Love has NOT been declared in the final Arc declarations:

Draw:
01 In Swoop (R Thomas)
02 Raabihah (M Guyon)
03 Mogul (R Moore)
04 Sottsass (C Demuro)
05 Enable (L Dettori)
06 Way To Paris (I Mendizabal)
07 Persian King (P C Boudot)
08 Royal Julius (S Foley)
09 Gold Trip (S Pasquier)
10 Sovereign (M Barzalona)
11 Japan (Y Take)
12 Deirdre (J Spencer)
13 Chachnak (T Piccone)
14 Stradivarius (O Peslier)
15 Serpentine (C Soumillon)

 

Wow, that's huge. Heaps of punter's money has been flushed down the toilet. Ugly.

 

Love out so I presume Moore on Mogul

 

I'm warming to Raabihah

 

Can anyone translate this? For some reason Sottsass appeals to me.

 

Very disappointing about LOVE.
will be even more of a shame if ENABLE wins a 3rd Arc with no crowd present.

 

Saw that one coming.

 

He says that he went to Australia for the Melbourne Cup but the place was full of knobjockeys!

 

Fug you, Stickmeister.

 

Stradivarius is in stall 14 and Serpentine in box 15. Golden Horn won from trap 14 but neither of these horses have the skill set that the high class winner of the Derby and Eclipse brought to the Arc in his year.

Enable is in stall 5 and has four leading contenders inside her in In Swoop, Raabihah, Mogul and Sottsass. Collectively, it must be a pretty short price that one of those five will win the race.

I had framed the race as a three way affair at 2/1 each on Enable, Love and the rest of the field and now it pretty much seems a two sided contest, with Enable Evens and The Field Evens. The obvious question is whether you prefer Enable, or every other horse in the race as your bet?

14 horses against 1 seems an obvious pick but there is a lot of lower quality in the pack. There are several with queries regarding the trip and ground and others look short of the required talent. It is hard to imagine how it could possibly have panned out better for Enable with all of the absentees and it would be ironic if her stablemate were the one to undo her hat trick attempt.

Unless the ground is really desperate it is hard to see how Enable will be beaten. She has had a better preparation this season and is sure to have been brought to her her peak for this one last hurrah and a shot at History. Aside from the financial rewards I am hoping she can win to give the race some sort of reason to linger in the memory. Outside of Enable and Stradivarius there are no real stars in the race and the latter horse is essentially a 2 mile specialist.

Good luck to anyone looking for an each-way shout. Now that Love is out there is probably an extra spot up for grabs than would have seemed the case prior to that.

 

French seem to be poorly represented, but I still think Sattsass has a chance. Just had modest bet on him at 9/1 (after watching it slowly come down from 12/1'ish the last few days ) Excellent analyses as usual, Grendel, good read!

 

I took my two in earlier post, before defection(s). Haven't seen the latest odds. Didn't even know Love wasn't running until seeing this thread . Too many other things grabbing my attention at present

 

"Now listen, you have to do the right thing, we think she will do well in the Breeders' Cup, so that's probably where she'll go next".

 

The only unknown is Raabihah on soft ground, if she happens to have been wanting that all along then with the low weight she would be dangerous, her run in the Vermielle was quite similar to Trevs when she got beat in 2014 before winning the Arc, but Trev had already shown she was a Champion and practically unbeatable on soft. I was strongly against her before that race and backed Tarnawa on the day, I also said she was a no hoper for the Arc because her form tied her in with a bunch of good but not great fillies like Fancy Blue, but this race is now so thin on quality. Rouget was talking her up all season as a champion, now Sottsass whos been poor all year is suddenly the one hes talking about and Demuro has chosen that, which suggests they have lost faith in the filly. On all evidence she is not good enough but shes never been seen on soft ground and I think she will handle it based on her action, she was staying on strongly in the Vermielle so I dont think she will lack for stamina either. Everything else is completely exposed as not good enough to beat Enable if she runs her race and im struggling to make a case for anything else so at 14/1 Raabihah will be no more than a hopeful interest for me.