Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

Thanks, wording corrected!

 

The official Irish Handicapper has raised Armory to 120 for his run behind Magical and Ghaiyyath. That has to be the biggest lot of ****e in many a year. Armory came into that race as a well exposed no-hoper who was 66/1. I would probably have him as a 105-108 horse on average in his career. Suddenly, on his 11th start, he gets a mark that is in excess of the 119 Kameko was awarded for winning the 2000 Guineas.

Armory's Group 3 win came by a neck, getting 8 lbs from a 4YO rated 105 on official ratings. His main opposition that day ran a stinker and there is no way that was within a light year of being a horse who had 120 talent. Utter rubbish from both the Irish Handicapper and the Racing Post assessor.

 

Yes I think they have lost the plot there Grendel. Magical has run to a Timeform rating of 120 or more on 14 of her last 15 starts so she is a pretty useful guide. I suspect that was closer to her 120, the race being run at a pace that any half decent horse would have finished within 3l of the winner. Buick was fooled into losing the race on Ghaiyyath by not going as fast as he likes. Everyone knows that horse's strength is his high cruising speed and ability to increase the pace mid race. He didn't do that and he isn't a horse noted for a lightning turn of foot. Hence he didn't run to his rating. I can understand not adjusting the rating of Ghaiyyath but he didn't run to that rating (133) Saturday. I'm no handicapper but I would have thought they both ran to the low 120s on Saturday, which would put Armory well below 120. He can't be 120, surely

The problem is that when a race is not run at a strong gallop and in an overall fast time, almost any horse with a turn of foot and within striking distance 2 out ha a chance of winning so, in such circumstances, however good the winner is, the distance between it and the horses behind will not reflect the superiority of the winner (assuming the best horse won).

 

The Arc being looked at by connections for Telecaster.

 

The more I see that Prix Foy race the more impressed I am with Straddy, given the ground and the way the race was run. If the ground comes up soft he must have a solid ew chance with Love, Magical and Ghaiyyath all preferring a sound surface and Tiger Moth appearing not good enough (not understanding why he is 3rd fav). At almost twice the odds I would rather have Sottsass than Tiger Moth

 

Regardless of his recent Group 2 Deauville success, 4th in a Group 2 at York hardly looks good enough, but stranger things have happened in racing over the years!

 

I honestly had a strange feeling about Ghaiyyath before the Curragh race, and, as it turned out, my fears were justified. He really didn't seem to be his old self that day, neither did jockey Buick! Not much on ratings, but I have to agree with the expert forum members in saying that 130 was too high, but it's surely in the mid-120s? If, by chance, the ground is good on Arc day, I'll have a small flutter on him. Anything worse, even good-to-soft (that can be a bit squelchy in France) no thanks, I pass!

 

No Ghaiyyath

http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Arc-bid-unlikely-for-Ghaiyyath&prid=211944

 

The Breeders Cup would be the most sensible option for both Ghaiyyath and Pinatubo. They are unlikely to get their ground at Ascot on Champions day and would have more chance of success in the USA.

Shaking my head at Mogul 10/1 for the Arc in a place. He'd be the worst horse ever to win the Arc.

 

better than Solemia surely

 

That doesn't surprise me, and a good decision imo

 

Now that the entries are available for the big races on Arc weekend, it is starting to look increasingly like the home defence may not be up to much. The next forfeit stage for Saturday is on Tuesday and it is Wednesday for Sunday’s races except the Arc itself that has forfeits on Monday and Tuesday, so that should whittle the numbers down considerably.

Assuming that Addeybb will not be taking up his entry for the Prix Dollar, Freddie Head’s Motamarris might keep the Hamdan bandwagon rolling or will Andre Fabre’s Victor Ludorum use this as a stepping stone to the QEII? The problem here is that quite a few have dual entries with the Prix Daniel Wildenstein.

Most of the best stayers in the Prix Du Cadran appear to be from these or Irish shores with George Strawbridge’s Frankel gelding Call The Wind the best of the home team for Freddie Head but the one that interests me is Francis-Henri Graffard’s filly Think Of Me, second in the Prix Gladiateur (the recognised trial for this race). I wonder if the Gladiatuer winner Called To The Bar will be supplemented.

Obviously on the Sunday, the question is which Battaash will show up for the Prix de l’Abbaye. If he has one of his off days, the best of the rest are familiar British and Irish names like Glass Slippers, Equilateral, El Astronaute, Make A Challenge and Liberty Beach. From a form point of view, the best of the French is three year old Wooded, runner up to Air De Valse in the Prix Petit Couvert.

The Prix de l’Opera looks extremely competitive this year, but will Magical take up her entry or go to the Arc? It is not like Ballydoyle have no other options for the Arc and ten furlongs is surely more the trip for her, having failed to beat Enable over further.

The hottest contest on the Arc Sunday card is definitely the Prix de la Forêt but again that is the foreign raiders. Earthlight looks the only credible home victor but he was very disappointing in the only Group 1 that he contested this term ,the Prix Maurice de Gheest, and the first two Space Blues (also Godolphin blue) and Hello Youmzain; and Pinatubo (Godolphin again) are surely more likely winners.

 

It is interesting just looking at the ante post betting for next weekend.

Only one bookie is still quoting either Space Blues or Pinatubo for the Prix de la Forêt and Earthlight is a general 7/4 or shorter. Hat-trick seeking One Master is general second favourite. I have found news that Space Blues is out having had a setback so presumably expectation is that Pinatubo is just giving it a miss.

Also, most of the foreign contingent that still hold entries for the Prix Du Cadran are not in the betting with Call The Wind favourite over Nayef Road.

I should have looked at the betting before I looked at the entries on France Galop.

 

The ground is apparently very soft after 19mm in 24 hours so no idea why Love is still favourite, only a matter of time before Enable becomes the clear fav and 9/4 wont last. The rain also looks good news for Princess Zoe in the Cadran although the favourite Call The Wind wont mind it either.

 

Straddy for a place then?

 

I like Straddy, have for a while.

 

ive always thought he preferred good fast ground tbh but does bring his stamina into it a bit more

id imagine Telecaster will be having a crack at it as well now

 

She isnt! They were making a big deal of the ground at Chantilly today which isnt too far from Longchamp I believe. There were flat races there today with horses virtually pulling up!
Enable now 2/1 with Love 3/1, it wouldnt be the biggest turn up for them not to even run her if its coming up heavy.

 

The weather forecast for Paris features rain of some description from Thursday onwards. Chantilly is about 30 miles north of Paris (an hour on the train) so it would be reasonable to assume that whatever rain one had the other probably got as well.

The first forfeit stage for the Arc cut the field down to just 22:
Logician, Persian King, Royal Julius, Telecaster, Way To Paris, Sovereign, Stradivarius, Japan, Sottsass, Buckhurst, Enable, Deirdre, Gold Trip, Chachnak, In Swoop, Crossfirehurricane, Mogul, Thames River, Degraves, Raabihah, New York Girl and Love.

Some interesting defectors there who did hold entries but will now be standing in their boxes. If your horse is not listed there, it will need to be supplemented on Wednesday. As it stands at the moment, the two lowest rated entries are Royal Julius and Chachnak so they cannot make the line-up without defectors.