Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2017

Clearly you have a different understanding of the phrase “over the top” to me. I note that “will be over the top” on August 15th is “may be over the top” on September 6th.

I would, therefore, be fascinated if you could enlighten me how you will know whether she is “over the top” before the race is actually run, as I am not aware of any racehorse trainer who can tell, otherwise they would not run their horse knowing that it is not going to perform.

I will assume that the other Japanese horse in the Prix Foy is a pacemaker for Satono Diamond, so they will surely not be able to make any excuses as it looks a very ordinary field.

 

I dont know that she will be over top, im betting on her being over the top.

I agree, the pacemaker is in for him and small field so shouldnt be any excuses, Ikee thinks he will be 70% on Sunday.

Its only a trial but ill be worried if he doesnt win cosily.

4 Group 1 and 2 Group 2 winners in this ordinary field.

 

I followed you in on Satono Diamond last night Boris

 

We won't know beforehand but I can see where DK is coming from. She has had some brutal races this year. Not least in her last run in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was driven out from half a mile out. She won't be carrying money at odds on.

 

I am not sure whether you are being serious or sarcastic about the “brutal races”; however, as I think that Enable will win the Arc and I do not bet odds-on, I have no betting interest in the race. There is no decent each-way bet because I have to think that it has a chance to win before I even consider it.

There is no logic to the argument that Enable will be “over the top” by October 1st. Look at the following examples:

Enable
21 Apr @ Newbury (1m2f): Third to Shutter Speed
10 May @ Chester (1m3f): Won easily beating Alluringly
2 Jun @ Epsom (1m4f): Won impressively beating Rhododendron
15 Jul @ Curragh (1m4f): Won easily beating Rain Goddess
29 Jul @ Ascot (1m4f): Won impressively beating Ulysses
24 Aug @ York (1m4f): Won beating Coronet
1 Oct @ Chantilly (1m4f): ???

Golden Horn
15 Apr @ Newmarket (1m1f): Won beating Peacock
14 May @ York (1m2f): Won impressively beating Jack Hobbs
6 Jun @ Epsom (1m4f): Won going away beating Jack Hobbs
4 Jul @ Sandown (1m2f): Won impressively beating The Grey Gatsby
19 Aug @ York (1m2f): Second to Arabian Queen
12 Sep @ Leopardstown (1m2f): Won beating Found
4 Oct @ Longchamp (1m4f): Won beating Flintshire

Sea The Stars
2 May @ Newmarket (1m): Won beating Delegator
6 Jun @ Epsom (1m4f): Won beating Fame And Glory
4 Jul @ Sandown (1m2f): Won beating Rip Van Winkle
18 Aug @ York (1m2f): Won impressively beating Mastercraftsman
5 Sep @ Leopardstown (1m2f): Won comfortably beating Fame And Glory
4 Oct @ Longchamp (1m4f): Won beating Youmzain

So recently two colts have won the Arc after tougher seasons and Golden Horn ran as many times.

 

Enable isnt odds on, probably get 6/4 on the day, maybe slightly bigger.

 

There isn't any evidence to suggest she's as tough as Sea The Stars who was a freak in that department. Golden Horn was one race away from being over the top at that stage of the season proven by his run in the Breeders up.

Espom wasn't an easy race, The King George was a proper slog and Frankie made her do alot more than she should have had to do in the Yorkshire Oaks.

She's the best horse in the field but at that sort of price I'd have take her on. The likes of Highland Reel or Ulysses (if they run him) would be cracking each way bets in my eyes

 

ooft, fear for the mental health of his opponents truth be told

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I think Enable will get turned over in the Arc, I am seeing Salsabil all over again here.

 

6/4 is total fantasy, she would have to be drawn out in the forest and badly sweated up.

As I write (09/09/17), the betting on Oddschecker looks like this:

6/5 Enable
10/1 Cracksman, Satono Diamond, Ulysses
16/1 Highland Reel, Zarak, Brametot, Eminent, Winter
20/1 Waldgeist
25/1 Satono Crown
28/1 Order Of St George
33/1 Cloth Of Stars, Cliffs Of Moher, Dschinglis Secret, Terrakova, Ultra

The Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc Trials may shake some of them up; but as it stands there are only two definite opponents to the Oaks winner at less than 20/1. Cracksman is very unlikely to run this year after Sunday, Ulysses is going to the Breeders’ Cup, Highland Reel does not want soft ground, Eminent will only go if he wins well in Ireland, injured Brametot is more likely for the Champion Stakes (Harry Herbert says, “the Arc hasn’t been ruled out”) and Winter is more likely for Champions’ Day. Given that the Prix Foy has not produced an Arc winner in 25 years – Orfevre’s second the best since Subotica in 1992 – the Japanese are just as much up against the statistics as the favourite.

 

Zarak each way at 16/1 for this dummkopf/dunderheid!

Might also invest in the again under rated German cuddie at 33/1 E/W!

 

Keep it simple I reckon. Enable to win the Arc, Ulysses to win the Breeders. 7/1 the double and really fancy the chances of it landing. Couldn't be more convinced Ulysses has improved past Highland Reel.

 

Was always going to be a poor renewal after Almanzor and Minding injuries, only so many top horses around and Ulysses target has always been the Breeders Cup. Not great for the race but I dont mind for my bet.

 

Find out about his form on Sunday, Cloth Of Stars beat him in the Ganay and Silverwave was 2nd to him in the Grand Prix Saint Cloud, both running in the Foy.

I dont think that French G1 form is good enough to challenge Enable, I need Satono Diamond to put them away comfy without being 100%.

 

Good luck!

 

El Condor Pasa ran 2nd to Montjeu in 1999 after winning the Foy. The 3 Japanese winners of the Prix Foy all finished 2nd in the Arc, so if Satono Diamond wins the statistics would look good for a big run.

Also Manduro would have won the Arc had he not got injured winning the Foy and we know its usually the race for a 3yo champion who then retires so its an irrelevant statistic imo.

As far as the trials tomorrow go, it looks the strongest race by some way and thats all that really matters.

 

Manduro

 

He has a son running in the French St Leger at 5.10 Chantilly, odds on fav

 

When will 'they' ever learn?