How is Sam Walker a ratings expert? Do his ratings make a level stake profit? If you backed the spot horse every race you would do your absolute bollocks. If that's a ratings expert then I'd hate to follow the ratings of a ratings novice
I don't think there is anything to lose by keeping SYT in training next year apart from the risk of injury. Absolutely nothing. If anything I think it is essential that they do keep him in training to ensure that they get the fee they will have bought him for. To be very clear about it, if SYT stays in training and fails to win the Arc then he can still go back to Australia to stud where he will be revered as the wonder horse they think he is. He'll be undoubtedly popular with breeders. However, if they want to use him on a global scale (especially in Europe) for the fee I can only assume they wish to achieve then he surely has to win the Arc and the only way he's doing that is by staying in training, having Ryan Moore on his back and getting lucky with the draw. When you look at his form this year, no matter how highly you rate him personally or the handicappers have assessed him, he has still only beaten average group one fields. If you are a European breeder would you pay over the odds for SYT when you could get Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Pour Moi, Henrythenavigator etc etc etc for similar or less money?
Whether there is a profit to be made is neither here nor there. The ratings are a way of establishing the merit of a particular performance. In no way do they take into account other factors which may have affected the performance. That is the punters job, to interpret the ratings in light of the evidence available, to then form your own opinion and bet accordingly. I cannot for the life of me understand how you can simply cast off a well respected opinion as rubbish simply because you do not agree with it. You are perfectly entitled to form an alternative opinion but that does not mean that the opinion of Sam Walker is absolute rubbish as you suggest. On a different matter, reading on Twitter this morning that the vibe from Ireland is that So You Think will be reunited with Ryan Moore in the Champion Stakes and then the BC Classic. Nothing official mind and may just be the 'rumour mill' in overdrive.
As a follow-up to the Arc, I'm going to post something here and leave myself open to ridicule! I must stress however that this comment is 100% true- from my own personal experience. In all my years of watching racing, I have NEVER seen a horse which "passed a motion" prior to the start then go on to win-from literally hundreds of cases! So You Think passed a large motion in the paddock prior to the Arc, so I immediately wrote him off. By the way, it's an accepted medical fact that defaecation weakens an animal and can also be symptomatic of a nervous state. Make of it what you will- but watch in future. Waiting for the bullets!
Interesting Tam. I'll have to ask the expert in the family. Personally, I think I would perform better after. However, if the passing of the motion was symptomatic of something amiss, that would be a different matter.
Ron, the medical aspect is true because I have personal experience of it - I was committed to hospital years ago with terrific head pains and a suspected brain haemorrhage- after passing a large motion and then immediately doing strenuous exercises. The specialist informed me of that medical fact relating to the former. Re. horses, I always make note of horses who pass a motion- and then watch how they perform. I have not seen one win in 50 years! Doubtless some do win, but I've never personally seen one!
Is it 100% certain that the motion passing was relevant, or maybe a coincidence. I've never heard of that before. Sounds like something everyone should know.
What a wonderful theory Tam. I've sometimes thought about a horse crapping before a race, but naturally assumed that it might be a bonus, after all, I always feel great whenever I dump. But maybe that's because I only squeeze one out every ten days or so. (only joking) As I'm a vegetarian, it's never been much of a problem. You know, I would have thought that dumping might have been linked to the fight or flight syndrome. If I was wandering through the scrub and came across a livid koala that wanted to tear off my limbs, I'd ****e myself and then do a runner. If what you have to say is true Tam, and I have no doubt that it is, they should make the information available to on course patrons. Maybe someone should jump on the tannoy. "Attention ladies and gentlemen, please be advised that numbers 4, 9 and 11 have just dropped humongous turds in the parade ring. Any monies invested prior to 3:06 will be subject to 10c in the dollar deductions. The proceeds to be used for the purchase of new shovels."
Cyclonic, Great! How about...dump their load and then dump the jockey. Job done and trot back to the stable.
We've been discussing this at home. Horses often unload just before going in a horsebox, as soon as getting off the horsebox, whilst warming up etc and it has no affect on performance (in most cases, like humans, it probably feels better). However, it depends why they pass the motion. If it was a massive motion it could indicate that the horse has suffered a minor colic causing a blockage and the stress of the parade (or even just the walking) has released it in which case there could be inflammation of the stomach/intestine and the horse should not be running. Any stomach upsets would normally be apparent because the horse will keep putting its head towards it and/or trying to kick its stomach and/or sweating prefusely. Also there is likely to be other visible signs which may be obvious (eg tucked up) or less obvious and maybe only noticeable to someone who knows the horse inside out (even expression). A perfectly normal stress **** where the horse keeps walking, looking fine and just lifting its tail for a small motion is no cause for concern, even if runny. But if a runny motion is prolonged it could be very serious as the horse could become de-hydrated. We came to the conclusion that passing a normal motion per se before the race would not necessarily be detrimental to the horse's chances, but it would certainly be worth looking for signs of discomfort. It would be interesting to hear the view of a reputable vet but, if the passing of a motion per se was a definite indicator that something was amiss, why don't those horses get inspected by a vet before being allowed to race? PS Cyc, your post was hilarious and had us in fits. Thanks for that.
Ron, it's obviously only a very temporary weakness in an animal- caused by muscular activity. Yet I'm only relating what I've seen (mostly on TV). I've just never seem one win after 'doing it' in the paddock or at the start- or cantering down. All I'd say is ..watch in in the future. (sods law says the first one you see will go on and win). Anyway, it all adds 'spice' to the forum!
well i was going to give rather along "sam walker on so you think" seasons analysis but will turn my attention to the 1997 arc won by peintre celeb as well as soem foreign form races where i think sam walker as undervalued the form. as we know by know,danedream took the course record in 2m24.49 shaving 0.11 sec of peintre celebs 2m24.6. they were very similar in the way they won.they both did it by 5 lengths. danedream won like this "Midfield, ridden and headway 2f out, led approaching final furlong, soon quickened clear, comfortably" peintre celeb won like this " Mid-division, 9th straight, headway 2f out, led approaching final furlong, quickened clear" very very similar to how they raced int he race as you can see. now as treasure beech faded 3f out and st nic took over,they got to 2f out in 2m0.7secs officially. helissio in 1997 led and managed to hold on to 1f out but he got to the same 2f out marker in around 2mins also. danedream did this on good going also ,where peintre celeb did it on gdfm.race times on last sundays arc suggested it was gdfm. so on similar going,similar pace,and similar running style,danedream as did this in 0.11 secs or 1/2l faster than peintre celeb as. pientre celeb was awarded 137rpr for that,but danedream gets only 128. obviously with multiple gp1 winner pilsudski in 2nd compared to gp3 winner shareta in 2nd to danedream,the 137 was worked out for peintre celeb. shareta as cause a big headache in danedreams rating as it seems sam walker is finding it hard to believe she was 2nd and as totally assumed snow fairy and so you think as ran below form so you think this season ratings are consistent of 128+,128+,129,131(adjusted down from 132) and 127 and was 5.75l back in 4th .pilsudski earned similar ratings of high 120's consistently as well. if you take so you thinks median rating of 128+ then danedream gets 134.average rating would mean 128.6 and danedream on 134.6.shy the 3lb sex allowance then 137.6 ,0.6lb better than pientre celebs but she was 1/2l in front from a time perspective. but that is a bit too perfect even for me!!! danedream had gp1 winners 5l back in 3rd,4th,5th,6th and 7th up to 7l peintre celeb had gp1 winners 5l back in 2nd,3rd and 4th,6th and 7th up to 8l now another thing i disagree on with sam is he seems to undervalue foreign form,especially german plus also japan and hongkong. take snow fairy.like workforce(post eclispe), she was judged to of ran her best race in defeat to so you think.workforce eclipse rating as been downgrade to match his arc win now but at the time we had a derby and arc winner running better in defeat over a trip a lot and connections think may not be his best.so you think had the undercooked excuse at royal ascot ,as well as the ride criticized(again!) going for home to early.but didnt workforce go for home to early as well in the eclipse?3f is a long out to commit and its no wonder both horses got beat close home! snow fairys rpr of 124 came in the irish champion,but she was already a 4 times gp1 winner by then.her japan win if you look at a replay,was awesome.she at one point was around 7l clear with half a furlong to after taking the lead at the 1f marker.she was eased closed home and the 2nd horse flew from the clouds to cut it to 4l.that horse Meisho Beluga managed to get closer to buena vista next time out in the japan cup,and buena vista only gets a best rpr of 121 despite her record! go to hong kong next,where snow fairy is last but 1 into the home straight but shows a astonishing burst of speed to win from the back clocking 21.97 secs for the final 2f.the pace wasnt great as well so she was catching horses who themselves were finishing well.in comparison to the sprint race with rocket man,sacred kingdom and jj the jet plane,they took 22.4 secs for there final 2 furlongs over 5f! i dont think he gave her any credit and the ratings she deserved for those races in the far east. then theres danedream who's best ever was 118 which is considered group 2 form. lets see what she did.she beat night magic by 6l.that was german horse of the year in 2010 i think.night magic is a 2 times gp1 winner.in that race also was joshue tree some 13l back in 3rd.although not outstanding ,he as won the Canadian international and a uk gp2,but as never been beaten by further than 6.25l in his life till that point till danedream doubled that!that 6.25l biggest beating was by no other than rewilding at goodwood. her other ace was a 5l win over scalo,again a gp1 winner and she was going away as well! so if rewilding hadnt tragically been took away from us,his form with so you think means he could of been 3rd-4th in the arc,still beaten well over 5 length with a rpr of 130. i think he as doen his best to push so you think to the most upper rating he can this season,but as since downgrade his eclipse form.hes undervalued foreign form to me and by the title of his latest atricle "Calls for end of female allowance get louder" as he got it in for the fillys?
I enjoyed the hard work you put in GP. You are obviously a lot more tuned into this stuff than me. I have to agree with you when you said the some tend to down play international form to such a degree that it looks second rate. It's myopic in the extreme. I love UK racing, but to be honest, I've often been sorely disappointed by the quality of some of the black type fields. European racing, for all it's well deserved glory, is not without it's short comings.
Let’s not let the facts get in the way of a good discussion, but 2:24.49 was a RACE record, lowering Peintre Celebre’s 1997 mark of 2:24.60. The COURSE record still stands at 2:24.30 (Scorpion, Grand Prix de Paris 2005). There seems to be some misconception that Shareta ran as a pacemaker. Just because she was 66/1 with the British bookies does not mean that the Aga Khan’s filly – who ran in the Prix Vermeille on her previous start – was not running on her own merits. It is always dangerous to denigrate form achieved in the less established racing nations on purely geographical grounds, but in the case of Danedream’s two wide-margin victories in Germany, she did not beat anything of any great note so it would be fair to suggest that she put in a substantially better performance at Longchamp. That was utter rubbish from O’Brien. He needs to change his mobile operator to somebody that has better coverage in Berkshire when Coolmore are feeding him excuses. After that race, Scalo won a moderate Group 2 race at Deauville. His 2010 Group 1 win at Cologne was against mostly home opponents and this June he was beaten by Voila Ici in the Group 1 Gran Premio di Milano. I don’t know anything about the topography of the course at Hoppegarten, but the time of 2:33.50 is nine seconds slower than the Arc and the going was “gut” (good). The fillies’ allowance (1.5kg over 2400 metres on Sunday) does not make a five length difference. If he wants a shouting match, I am extremely loud – people at the other end of the building will attest!
"It is always dangerous to denigrate form achieved in the less established racing nations on purely geographical grounds, but in the case of Danedream’s two wide-margin victories in Germany, she did not beat anything of any great note so it would be fair to suggest that she put in a substantially better performance at Longchamp." This of course could be true, but that is only one of two options. The other which can't be disproved, is that the Arc field were not as good as their ratings depicted. Built on the back of this possibility, ( I hope Shergar doesn't see this ) UK racing must be horribly over rated.
greatpilsudski, a good effort with the ratings. To be honest, I find it a bit much to take all that lot in! Also I find ratings a bit of an enigma- it must be very difficult to correlate them during the course of a season, let alone year on year. The classic example for me personally is Sea The Stars- a horse I admired tremendously. Timeform rated him at 140 and yet, when I look at and try and correlate/compare the horses he beat eg. Fame And Glory who, notwithstanding deteriorating form, could not beat a 103 rated horse in Fictional Account-and others he defeated; I have to conclude that a 140 rating was based on an unbeaten three year old record- and does not stack up. I accept that Timeform is only one company's assessment and that ratings are given at a point in time, but do ratings reflect a "generational standard" which may be better or worse than previously? Can you kindly explain it to me and give me your view because I find so many many of these ratings fallacious and almost impulsive!
Tamerlo, I think that when people try to use ratings to compare horses from different generations, they are making an impossible analysis. Frankel is far and away the best horse in training in Europe at the moment but those that attempt to draw a comparison with Brigadier Gerard are completely wasting their time. They are two great horses but they come from different eras when racing operated differently. It is like trying to compare off-spinners Jim Laker and Graeme Swann.
Cyc, I don’t know why you bothered with the laughing icon, the one under your name is far better. There are only half a dozen horses in training in Europe at the moment who might be considered anything other than average. If Nathaniel doesn’t win the Champion Stakes impressively then all of the middle distance three-year-olds this season are ordinary. If he wins then he is the worthy middle distance champion and the rest are nowhere. Credit where it is due to Danedream and her connections, they won fair and square but it was an Arc weekend epitomised by mediocrity.
Quartermoon that time you got of scorpion ,is that from Wikipedia? The racing post as 2mins26.4 stated and I believe they get there info of France - galop
