I'm not trying to claim false credit, but the horse was mentioned by a few people a while back. But it quickly got lost in the hype of other runners.
Swan - I think the fact everyone regarded this as a quality renewal reduced the chances further of unfancied runners though I take bayernkennys points about the was she has won her G1 races and on varying ground but it was perhaps the inconsistencies that stopped me from giving her a serious chance, plus her previous Longchamp visit. Another failed Arc for me, that's around 20/24 now !
Swanhills, we'll just have to disagree on the quality of the Arc field. My view relates more to the "Classic generation" rather than the relative merits of the Group winners who are competing against one another ie. you can have as many Group winners as you like in a race, but what does that mean if the current crop's standard is mediocre? As I see it, Classic winners should show consistency of form at the top level. Recent years have contradicted this because Classic winners (with one or two exceptions) have tended to win; then run badly; then be beaten by a horse they beat previously; and all on the back of fewer races competed than in past years. Take yesterday's Arc.....Four of the last five places were filled by three Derby winners and a Leger winner- between 15 and 25 lengths behind the winner! What does that tell you?
Cyclonic....It is not ignorance to question the standard of Australian racing, whilst you have some outstanding sprinters, generally alot better than ours, your middle distance racing isn't as strong as the European stuff. As for your argument on European success in Australia, none of our top horse's ever run in Australia, a bunch of G3/handicappers from Europe have a crack at the Melbourne Cup every year, but I don't see how there failures can be used to prove Aussie racing is strong. If you can name me some Euro G1 winners who have flopped in Australia then il accept your point. SYT is a quality horse in Europe, but he is no superstar, probably in the top 10 horse's in Europe this season, but that's about it. In Australie he was thought of as the second coming of Pegasus, such is the standard of the middle distance division over there. Im not being anti Australian, or anything like that, I'm just saying it how I see it. To blame the trainer is a poor excuse, AOB has won G1s all over the world, and is one of the top trainers in Europe, and the world. Has a certain Bart Cummings, ever even had any G1 winner's outside of Australia? He's another big fish in a small pond. The Horse was trained well and competed consistently well in his time in Europe, he just came up short against Europes finest. I told everyone after Ascot that he was beaten on merit that day, and to ignore the excuses, which were made to try and preserve his stud value. Having said that he probably will still be worth a fair bit at Stud, his still proved himself a class act. His sire High Chapparel also came up short in the Arc, and he wasn't that bad a horse either
Tamerlo: I fully accept that your last paragraph says an awful lot; I have to admit that I had not yet examined the final Arc placings. Well, frankly, I wonder how the four horses mentioned passed their post-race medicals? The trainers will no doubt say "they're just fine, scoped well and are eating-up". Ah well, the punter never ever does know the truth. As for Treasure Beach, he just had to finish almost last after having to run like a class miler? Ran well not to finish tailed-off last? A fine thread, Tamerlo, which produced some masterly comments from some of the guys. Keep up the good work, will be looking-in once in a while. Good health to you on this bright and sunny holiday Monday in Germany....(Quiet day for me after three visits to the Oktoberfest over the last two weeks..).
Shergy, a few decent horses have made the trip down under. Although not exactly top flight 7 time group winner Persian Punch was no slouch. Kayf Tara from what I gather was 4 time G1 winner. Among hos wins was a Gold Cup. A whole host have made the effort including 7 time G1 winner Yeats. He was a mighty horse, but he wasn't up to the task in the Cup. I'm not saying that we are equal, but I will say that if you send down the very best, they'll have one hell of a fight on their hands. You have a great knowledge of UK and Us racing, but in the interests of a well rounded education, I'd advise you to try looking over more than just the occasional fence.
I'm very busy outside today so won't be around until later. Just popped on to say good day all and will report on our Arc visit later. One lasting impression. The French certainly know how to put on a meeting; it put British racing to shame. That's all I have time for for now. Catch you later.
Kayf Tara never ran in Australia to my knowledge. Persian Punch finished 3rd in 2 Melbourne Cups carrying top weight both times, and on both occasions he was the morale victor at the weights. Had he taken on the Aussie stayers at level weights he would have slaughtered them. He lost out by just a lengh in the 98 Melbourne Cup in a bunched finish, conceding 11 pounds to the 2 horse's who narrowly beat him, there is no doubt he was the best horse in that race, and by some way. Yeats again was the morale victor of his appearance in the Melbourne Cup, only beaten 8 lengths, carrying a ridiculous 9'4 the winner was getting 7 pounds the second was getting 13 pounds, need I go on? Again had Yeats taken on any of those at level weights he would have tonked them. Like I've just proved, using the Melbourne Cup isn't a fair way of accessing the decent European radars as everytime one has gone over, you Aussies have needed to handicap them out of it. The bare facts remain that had those European horse's taken on your lot at level weights, they would have won
I couldn't help think in my initial reaction after So You Think's 4th- "He's a definite runner in the Champion Stakes now". It was an odd race, the Arc, barring the winner who really is all class. Given the way the race was run, So You Think's 4th was not at all bad. Was he overhyped? Probably. Is he a top class horse in European middle distance terms? Absolutely. Will he retire this season or come back for another crack?
It would be interesting if they entered SYT in the Champion Stakes but I'd like to see him go to the Breeders Cup. It was a strange race yesterday - Dane dream just took off like a rocket and nothing in the field could live with her.
There is no way you can prove that Shergar, it's all supposition. If you have next to no understanding of racing in Australia, how can you make informed judgements on the subject. The fact that you lay the blame on the defeat of the champion Yeats, at the feet of weight, shows that you need to take a wider look. Fallon attributed the defeat, not to weight, but the stop start nature of the race. This has been a huge problem for UK visitors.
Shergar.. "To blame the trainer is a poor excuse, AOB has won G1s all over the world, and is one of the top trainers in Europe, and the world." Who do you blame for SYT's tactics, then? Or are you going to say that the tactics were OK and the horse just wasn't good enough? Re, Aidan O'Brien, everyone tends to rave about him, but he does have all the picture cards when he plays whist, doesn't he? I tend to be a bit more circumspect about him. If you look at his figures of the horses he runs in England, then they're pretty mediocre in some ways. In the last two years he's run 49 two year olds in this country and had 4 winners; he's run 84 three year olds and and had 5 winners. Those are strike rates of 8% and 6% respectively. Yes, he's had an average 35% with his four year olds but he's competed in only 28 races total-and many of these with the same horses. He does far better in Ireland, as you would expect with weaker opposition overall, but I don't see his general performance as exhilarating- given he has a big arsenal when most trainers have peashooters.
So when Aidan O'Brien does well it's a case of 'well of course he does well, look at the tools at his disposal' or 'he doesn't do that well actually', and when he does badly it shows he's clearly not all that. Goalposts shifting much?
Kiyon, AOB's performance with his 2 and 3 year olds in this country is deteriorating. His average over the last 5 years is 12% with his 2 year olds and 11% for 3 year olds; but his figures are declining quite badly. Last year was his nadir- he didn't have a two year old winner at all (from 31 runners) and only 3 X three year old winners (from 44 runners). Just think what those young horses cost, also! Obviously he does much better with his established 'star four year olds' which have been kept in training-and in Ireland also. In conclusion, I compare trainers to soccer managers in one sense- they build a reputation but how good are they really? Put another way, if you'd spent millions and had had 133 runners (2yo and 3yo) in this country in the last two years- with only 9 winners, would you be happy?
So far there have been 2 threads here illustrating the indisputable decline of 2 notable trainers; namely SMS and AOB. The stats supporting these revelations are alarming. Someone must be winning. Can the decline (however temporary) of these 2 trainers be attributed to the success of other trainers? ie is there an upwardly mobile trainer (or more) arriving on the scene to take their places, or are they just losing their touch. Are the better horses being spread around more? We have heard a reasonable possible explanation for SMS. What is the explanation for AOB? Are the owners of horses trained by these 2 trainers losing fortunes?
As ever, Sam Walker has written a very interesting piece in his Racing Post World Class column. Of particular interest is this "Though it paid to be on the pace, Danedream broke the course record for her five-length success and she rates alongside recent winner Rail Link with an RPR of 128, just below the great Zarkava (129). Runner-up Shareta was best placed on the lead turning in and posted a career best mark of 120. Taking her sex allowance into account, an RPR of 128 means it would have taken a 131 performance from a colt to dead-heat with her, or a 132 to beat her." And do you know what SYT is rated? That's right 132. That seems to go some way to confirming that the ride was poor and he was nowhere near his best, but ran with great credit considering the circumstances. The more i look at the race and the more i think about it, the more unsatisfactory it becomes. The winner was brilliant but there were so many horses who were never given a chance.
I am loving the interest amongst us all that the Arc has thrown up this year. One thing it has taught me is that never have an ante post bet on it. Even at my modest ante post stakes you are a) running the risk that your horse gets there; b) totally chancing what draw it'll get once it gets in. Danedream won because she ran a great race, had a light weight and crucially had the best draw. I don't for one second buy into the protestations by some that the draw was somehow less of a factor in this years race than it has been on the past. Quite obviously when you see that low drawn horses have an incredible, historical record in the race there's only one conclusion to be drawn and that's there is an intrinsic advantage to be drawn in the first 9 stalls. What would have happened if SYT had been drawn in the 'right' half we will never know but I think there is a huge argument that he would have been in the mix.
Sorry I don't buy that one rounders. Look at the result and the draw. From that you cannot really come to any conclusion that a low or high draw has any advantage or disadvantage. http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS Personally I think that Danedream is an improving horse that slipped under the radar and is better than most people gave her credit for.
i look forward to reading sam walkers monday column and was eager what he had to say this week,but if you have read it all flat season then this guy loves so you think,he as named many of his articles with "so you think" in the title and even talks about him on weeks that he hasnt even raced! to me he as tried to push this solid consistent group 1 horse into the superstar zone ,he had such high hopes that he would become some kind of mid 130's horse but he hasnt. i first thought he was generous in giving him 132 or his beating of workforce in the eclipse.so hes trying to say that workforces best ever race is in defeat over a trip thats possible not his best ?sri putra gets a length closer on top? so now he goes into the ride of so you think and it "paid to be on the pace" as he quotes.so in a fast run race from start to finish that the best place to be is it? aiden obrien over the last few years as ran multiple entries in top middle distance races where there is normally pacemaker ,then a horse who sits between the pacemaker and his held up type who he regards as the best chance.once that pacemaker falls aways,the the other takes over,then eventually he gets overhauled in by the held up type who he thinks of as his best chance.didnt that happen on sunday?st nic took over 3f from home after treasure beech started to wilt,then st nic himself couldnt sustain it then syt came and took over? that part went to plan,trouble was though there was 3 fillies in front of him! then imagine this scenario.on thursday danedream isnt supplemented ,only the other two are.no one really would of thought that danedream not running would of took the gloss of it.we knew she looked good but really we wasnt confident of how good her german form was? then the news came in that shareta was a non runner.well i say news but i doubt that would of even got its own story in the rp!and no one would of even blinked to that! the race would of still panned out like it did.treasure beach was a 5 length leader from shareta ,she never got to the front even when TB faded as st nic took over. what would of happen is st nic would of been still in the lead well into the final furlong instead of being 3rd and then snow fairy and so you think battling it out!the time would of been just under 5 secs faster than standard .the form would of look more realistic with the likes of sarfina and meandre a length behind. but instead we have a german filly 5l in front of a 80-1 shot in 2nd and both in front of the above!so now the form isnt so good and now many horses have ran below form or there jockeys got it wrong etc etc.
