Dont take any notice of AOBs comments, he's just a puppet for Coolmoore and there breeding regime. There will be no hiding place for SYT and his big reputation tommorow. So far he has just about done enough to keep the critics off, without realy looking like a superstar. For me he is a stupidly short price, considering the form he has actually run to this season, but if I'm wrong, il hold my hands up. I'd far rather be on Treasure Beach at 33/1, if I had to pick an AOB runner
Considering the French 3yo fillies look to be such a strong bunch this year (Moonlight Cloud winning the Maurice de Gheest and Immortal Verse winning the Jacques Le Marois), I'll be going for Galikova to continue the trend. ALLEZ GALIKOVA!
Slightly surprised by the confidence of the forum in SYT's chances, I'd see a very good case for Snow Fairy to overturn the form with him considering she was running him down the last day over an inadequate trip. Surely the Arc trip will suit her much more. And I don't even fancy her much! I think the Coolmore created hype bubble will well and truly get popped today but against that I would like to see him deliver, I just can't see it. Meandre e/w at 14s looks a decent play. Luck in running will be a major issue.
There can be no doubt that Coolmore have the hype machine in overdrive BFS, but in all fairness, the horse has some serious form on the board.
Ed Dunlop thinks Snow Fairy's best trip is 11f. He doesn't actually think that she really sees out the 1m4f. She stays, but not strongly. Not sure if that makes sense or not?!
Can't get away from Workforce, hopefully Ryan Moore can get the right tune out of him today and with him in the same stall as last year hopefully the gaps will come WF can travel off a strong pace and power away, also like Reliable Man but think the grounds against this horse today, Hiruno D'Amour is consistent and can get in the places.
I must admit to being utterly clueless re the Arc this year.I can make an equal case for a number of runners and similarly cite weaknesses regarding each of them as well. Won't be punting but am really looking forward to it.Hope SYT gives the chaps who back it a good run.
She wouldn't have hacked up at a stiff track like the Curragh in soft ground if she doesn't truly stay though. But against the logic that suggests she does stay well I can't disagree she has bags of toe at the business end. Not long to go now folks!
What a performance that was from DaneDream, that was the best performance in the Arc since Sakhee, she routed them. There was no hiding place for SYT today. He is a quality horse, but he is along way off being a superstar. He was just a big fish in a small pond in Australia. I'm sure AOB will be under orders from Coolmoore to give excuses, but they won't fool me, just like they didn't at Ascot
My first impressions on the race: Danedream was a very impressive winner in a very fast time so i don't think anyone can criticise her performance. She was a worthy winner and looks like a very smart filly indeed. The one hard luck story if you like was SYT. I think he was the clear second best in the race at worst and should definitely have been a comfortable second. Snow Fairy was a few lengths in front of him and he closed her right down at the death. The horses around him (Workforce, Nakayma Festa) were nowhere. I was willing Heffernan to close up down the false straight but he gave him far too much to do. You simply can't sit 15 lengths of the pace on quick ground on a galloper who lengthens and expect to win. The other question mark is that Shareta was 2nd. That must throw a question mark over the form, and to me confirms that the horses from the back never really got their chance. The horses that have 'overperformed' (ie. Shareta and SNA) were both right to the fore throughout. I don't want to be a party pooper but i suspect the winner was a little flattered . . . More analysis when i can see a replay! I might even disagree with what i've said there. That's only from memory and initial impressions.
Zenyatta....The reason he was so far back, was because he had a poor draw, and had to concede ground, or he would have been running to wide on the turns. As soon as I seen the draw I crossed a line through the 2 Market leaders SYT and Sarafina. Longchamp is a terrible track to have Europes richest horse race, I've been saying that for years, if your not drawn low you can't win, it's as simple as that
You can win because it has been done in the past. I absolutely agree that it is a disadvantage but it is not the 'be all and end all' that you describe. I also agree that SYT had to be dropped in from that draw. What i don't agree with is that Heffernan should have started his move much earlier than he did. He needed to be making up ground down the false straight so that was in a position to challenge up the straight. He didn't so he wasn't.
Zenyatta....Yes it is possible, but it would take a horse that has alot in hand over the opposition to pull it off. If it's any consolation to you, regardless of jockey tactics SYT wouldn't have got to the winner
Just watched the race again and at no time was SYT more than 4 lengths behind the winner coming into the straight.The winner quickened up better than SYT plain and simple. Best horse on the day won no doubt.
Not sure the draw was as decisive as some think, the second horse was drawn 9 and the 3rd 11. The difference being that those horses were ridden for an early position, whereas the showboaters on the big guns were wanting to cut through the pack and look like greats. Given the relatively fast ground today that was never going to happen. When Zarkava ploughed through the field it was much slower ground and she was passing tired horses. Even Sea The Stars was ridden much handier than some of the big players today, despite his well documented problems in running. The fact that so many fancied horses finished well down the straight but were ultimately never in a position to challenge has to be down to poor race tactics.
Have to agree with dancingbrave - best horse on the day won. In all honesty there are no hard luck stories for the others. No horse got boxed in and they all had room. If some jockeys had been paying attention to the pace, then the result (excluding the winner) might have been slighly different. SYT has just shown he is not as good as connections would make him out to be
As said over the course of the last couple of weeks the strong stats re the Arc have been upheld once again. Log these into the old memory bank and remember them again in 12 months time: 12 out of the last 13 winners won a middle-distance Group 1 that season by 2+ lengths 17 out of the last 19 winners emerged from a single figure draw
"Big race stats and trends" might be a decent thread to have on the forum index Ron - we can add in trends and stats at the time of a particular race and it may help jog a few memories next time around
Rounders, I aint buying that one. The draw mattered less in this Arc more than most I have seen and, apart from the first couple of furlongs when they jostled for position, you didn't need to be an ace jockey to move forwards. The winner had the sense to expend a bit more energy than Sarafina and SNA and lay up in midfield. SNA had every opportunity to improve his position but did nothing for the first mile of the race. Just before they straightened up for the last time, the winner had about 6-7 lengths on SNA- and had at least that at the end. Danedream was the only horse that showed class acceleration and was an impressive winner. SYT, Sarafina, Snow Fairy, and one or two others finished well but didn't have telling speed in going past beaten horses. For my money, a very easy winner against Group One mediocrity- just like the last year's field. You'd have to be very churlish to believe Danedream wouldn't have won that race, however it had been run- or to back any of those against her next time. How good she turns out to be is another matter and only time will tell. As for Aidan O'Brien and/or Heffernan, I have to query their overall tactics. Why lay so far back against your own Derby winning pacemaker- as opposed to improving your position gradually? The front runners were likely to take longer to come back to the field. Desperate tactics and/or jockeyship! If I owned SYT , O'Brien wouldn't be training him next week but there again, Heffernan wouldn't have been riding him.
