Agreed Zenyatta, and I'm sure Masked Marvel will only run if he is giving all the right signals at home - Gosden is not one to send a horse to a race like this if it isn't spot on.
There have been two supplementary entries added to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Danedream and Masked Marvel. That leaves sixteen to face the starter if nobody defects before Sunday. As I got that information off France Galop, I will assume that this means that Nathaniel was not added and will be heading to Ascot (going permitting).
Both Paris Turf and PMU describe the going as very soft (tres souple) at Auteuil for today's jump racing. I have attended Auteuil in June/July and November but cannot remember how the description reflected the actual going. I do recall that one summer the going at Auteuil was very soft but the going the next day for the Grand Prix de St Cloud was good. Would I be right in believing that Auteul lies lower than Longchamp! My recollection is that St Cloud definitely lies on 'raised' terrain from the Seine. Anyway, the going could easily change from the cessation of watering today until Sunday PM. I am sure that, in common with other readers, I have been sucked into backing Masked Marvel; at least at 25/1 it looks a value e/w bet. Good luck all; especially to those visiting Longchamp for the first time. My advice, length of stay permitting, would be to go to the races on Saturday for a more relaxed few hours. This will give you the 'lay of the land', get you used to the PMU and travel to and from Longchamp without the throngs.
I think Andre Fabre described trhe ground as 'velvet' yesterday, and that it currently is good to soft. However they expect it to be good ground on Sunday, perhapos on the quicker side of good depending on the intensity of the hot weather.
The five-day weather forecast for Paris has the same weather as most of England is experiencing: Warm and sunny, with the temperature in the high twenties centigrade. Auteuil is about a mile or so down the road from Longchamp on the other side of the Bois De Boulogne but I expect that it will have been heavily watered for a jumps meeting. St Cloud is not a great distance from Longchamp on the other side of the River Seine so the current state of the going there may be a better indication.
Just having a look at the Arc market on Oddschecker and noticed that Victor Chandler are betting 5/4 and 11/8 about Sarafina and So You Think in a 'Name the favourite market'. Surely it will be one of those two and this is an excellent chance of the much vaunted 'bet to nothing', or am i missing something?!
You would think so Zen, though a plunge on Workforce not entirely out of the question. What I found with these markets is that VC (and others) are happy laying the tenners and score punters but anyone that looks to have £4k on each to make £1k or £1500 is likely to have their account closed or limit applied. Probably also worth confirming whether this is Pari mutual fav or British SP fav
Favourite determined by returned industry SP - In the event of joint favourites dead heat rules apply. I agree that it looks too good to be true. Just 'weighing up' whether to 'weigh in' or not! Edit: The other point to consider is that Workforce is drifting like a barge on the exchanges. He's out to 12.
Can't get any prices from office so no idea what's going on today. I was refering to the point that if all 15,000 Brits traveling over decide on a Brit plunge then the price will change - Workforce drifting wouldn't necessarily worry me given his very hot and very cold performances last year and the fact the market got it wrong as often as it did right !
The one thing putting me off plunging in is the draw. If SYT and Sarafina are drawn next to each other in the car park then that is the only way i can see anything other than those two going off favourite. Edit: Not a very good analogy considering i seem to remember someone saying the car park was inside the track, but you know what i mean. In the 'coffin boxes'.
Workforce's drift is caused by the ground, and in the past hour Sir Michael Stoute has expressed his concerns. Sir Michael Stoute has voiced concerns about the prospect of fast ground for last year's winner Workforce in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday. The Newmarket trainer does not want firm conditions in Paris for the four-year-old, who landed Europe's premier all-aged middle-distance race last season. "I've been really happy with his preparation, but disappointed to hear about the weather forecast because he's a big heavy horse and we do like good ground for him," Stoute told At The Races. "We're a long way from it at the moment and someone's going to have a look at the track and give us an update. I am concerned about the ground. We're very happy with his condition and it looks a particularly strong renewal of the Arc this year. "It's disappointing we're having this Indian summer in Paris. He's had a nice break after the King George, like he did last year, and I've been very happy with his preparation." http://www.attheraces.com/article.a...ncern&ref=atrPA Racing Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Thu
I knew Sir Michael had said he was concerned but that makes it sound like they are almost considering pulling him out if it is considered too firm.
Completely agree, and I think that is why the layers are beginning to dangle some big prices for him. Given the record of 4 Y Os in the Arc and the rare back to back successes, it makes sense to lay him with major grounc concerns. Having said that he hasn't put in a a complete performance this year and I think if he got it right on the day, 12s might look very silly!
Betting on who will be favourite must be based on British bookies odds rather than the Pari-Mutuel. On the PMU, So You Think will be coupled with two other Ballydoyle inmates and Sarafina will be coupled with Shareta, so the “favourite” on the machine is definitely going to be one of those “two”. It really would be a bet to nothing as the Aga Khan’s fillies with half of France shovelling Euros on are likely to claim the honour. Workforce will be drifting on the exchanges presumably because those laying the bets have seen the weather forecast and have assumed that the ground is going to be fast, which does not favour last year’s winner. Of course it could be layers that have laid the other contenders and now need to close out their position by getting Sir Michael Stoute’s charge.
Galikova is one horse that really has been strong in the market, really solid at 8s and Freddie Head is bullish.
That would be some double if Goldikova could win the 15:30 and Galikova could win the 16:15. The band could strike up Sisters Are Doin’ It For Themselves!
'Worries' over Reliable Man and now Workforce make the 4/1 BlueSq. and 888 are offering about Sarafina very tempting. Surprisingly both firms are allowing a fair sum to be invested. I am now hopeful of a decent return for my many investments in the Arc so will soon be researching the four Grade 1 races at Auteuil during the 'Week-end International de l'Obstacle'. I always wonder how Questarabad would have got on at Cheltenham in either the Champion or the World Hurdle however the ideal race would probably have been the Aintree Hurdle on soft going. Cannot wait to return to the brasseries on the Rue D'Auteuil; roll on the 6 November!
Here is another family double possibility, although it is a Saturday/Sunday one: Prix Daniel Wildenstein – Sandagiyr, three-year-old by Dr Fong. Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Sarafina, four-year-old by Refuse To Bend. Half-brother and sister out of Sanariya. The former race looks quite hot with three or four in-form performers so this double may be down shortly after 16:15 on Saturday.
Even better is Paddy Power are going 13/8 about So You Think, but they are 4/5 on Sarafina. So i think taking 5/4 with Victor Chandler on Sarafina and 13/8 about SYT with Paddy Power is looking like a nice bet. With all the concerns about Workforce and the ground i can't see anything to challenge those two for favouritism.
