Heard a small whisper that Arctic Cosmos may be supplemented for Arc after some nice work this morning was 200's on betfair earlier not guaranteed to run but could be worth £2 or so
And the latest drifter is none other than So You Think. Now trading at 9.2, which is a massive price given he was challenging Sarafina for favouritism over the weekend. Alarm bells might start to ring if he touches double figures.
Who do they have left if So You Think doesn't run? I don't see how the firm ground could be a problem for a horse that spent it's entire career up until this season running in Australia? Surely a quickly run 1m4f on firm ground is more up his street than a slowly run 1m4f on slow Autumn ground?
I agree completely Rounders- that is why the drift is completely puzzling me! Has touched 10s twice now before going back to 9.2. Those backing at these prices might have a belting price come Sunday. Surely they won't duck out and head to the Champion, the only concern they could have is an injury setback?
'Surely they won't duck out and head to the Champion, the only concern they could have is an injury setback?' Maybe - he's out to 10's again for a few quid. I didn't think he had much of a chance despite an ante post bet on him but to me it looks like things might be falling in his favour. I still don't like non-3 year olds in the Arc though. Do you think Seville has a habit of making decent horses look exceptional this year.... Sea Moon, Carlton House, Meandre????? I backed Meandre off the back of the walloping he gave Seville et al in Paris but thinking about it I think that form can be shot to pieces.
What the hell is going on with So You Think?! I literally just decided to chuck a few quid in his direction as conditions seem to be falling perfectly in his favour. I leave a bet at 6.2 on Betfair which i think is a good price, and the best lay price. I come back this evening and find him out to 12s. Looks like i may have done my money already! A good lesson though for everybody is not to leave money down. Either take the price or check back later. Invariably it only gets taken when something stupid happens, and you don't get the best price anyway. I've done it before and i'm sure i will do it again, but i will have to endeavour not to. I can't believe they are going to duck the race now. It seems that everything is in his favour so the only conclusion if he misses it is that they ducked the challenge, which can surely do his stallion credentials no good at all.
I tell you what though, whilst the layers are dangling these 10s and 12s, the backers are absolutely hoovering them up. Back into 8.4 now. I saw £50 at 10s very quickly mopped up. The money is beginning to fly on the Betfair Arc markets, £25,000 in the last 9 hours and on the increase- £3000 has been done in the last half an hour.
Absolutely agree. I think it seems to be a false alarm. Betfair have said the move is not significant. It was caused with a very small amount of money so they wouldn't be concerned. He is also shortening back up all the while.
Everything seems to be a false alarm, the backers have absolutely hoovered up the value. Smashed back into below 7s, an absolute tonne of money exchanged. Masked Marvel has had a few quid sniffing around but can't call it significant money. Apparantly the going at Longchamp right now is 'Good', and the earliest the track might be watered is Tuesday. I think we'll get 'good' ground come Sunday. Is that enough for Nathaniel (and possibly Reliable Man)? Nathaniel ran a cracker at Chester on good-to-firm and if I was John Gosden, if the ground was good I'd take my chance. The Champion Stakes is surely too inadequate a trip for Nathaniel. I'm tempted to take the 16s on him you know.
Final note of the night was Vadamar attracting support across all of the exchange markets, which I found odd as Dupre said he would be aimed at the Prix du Conseil de Paris two weeks after the Arc. It might tie in with the drift of Reliable Man, so we'll have to wait and see.
19 have stood their ground at the initial forfeit stage. I can't for the life of me find the list of those 19 horses, can anyone help?! Nathaniel, Meandre, and Danedream will all need to be supplemented by Thursday if they are to run, costing £100,000
The nineteen left in the Arc at the first forfeit stage are: Workforce – Sir M Stoute So You Think – A O’Brien St Nicholas Abbey – A O’Brien Silver Pond – C Laffon-Parias Hiruno D’Amour – M Kon (Japan) Nakayama Festa – Y Ninomiya (Japan) Arctic Cosmos – J Gosden Sarafina – A de Royer Dupre Snow Fairy – E Dunlop Treasure Beach – A O’Brien Casamento – M Al Zarooni Regent Street – A O’Brien Seville – A O’Brien Giant Step – D Wachman Reliable Man – A de Royer Dupre Shareta – A de Royer Dupre Testosterone – P Bary Wonder Of Wonders – A O’Brien Galikova – F Head
AOB currently has 6 runners, that is likely to go down to 2 or 3 I would think. Wonder Of Wonders will be scratched, then probably two from Treasure Beach, Regent Street, Seville, and SNA. Then theres the question of who will be supplemented- Nathaniel, Meandre, and Danedream might be added. Godolphin do have a runner in the shape of Casamento, then. Wish I'd have took the 1000s he was trading at last night.
Is there any reason why Nakayama Festa is around 25s ? I know he disappointed connections after last years Arc but had a pleasing return on trials day I believe, he was certainly a very unlucky loser last year. Also how's this for a weather report in Arc week, 28 degrees and not a cloud in sight, obviously they'll be some watering but is the ground likely to ride firm, good to firm or will they water to create soft side of good ? It's a strange one because in all the years I've followed racing I can't remember an Arc on fastr than good ground and usually it's bottomless.
As it stands at the moment, if no horse is supplemented, all the nineteen remaining could participate. If the three probable supplementary entries are added to the race, the limit is theoretically twenty. This would mean that Giant Step and Regent Street (both have Coolmore connections) would be ‘balloted’ out as the lowest rated entrants. I suspect that both of them have been left in as potential pacemakers. Interesting that the Japanese three-year-old Nakayama Knight has dropped out. It’s a long way to come to stand in your box on Sunday. With the ‘Indian Summer’ forecast for Paris this week, the taps will be on at Longchamp so it will not be fast on Sunday.
Have to say I'm disappointed that Sea Moon doesn't go (though obviously it was expected), as it is completely unexposed over the mile and a half trip. There's no way we'll have a fast track at Longchamp, they will water it to get good ground I should think. Grizzly, regarding Nakayama Festa- I agree in many ways. However, I also think Hiruno D'Amour is this years best Japanese raider so I might back that come Sunday. Hopefully St Nicholas Abbey runs, I'm reasonably happy with the 85/1 I took last week. Would be disappointing if they did not let him take his chance.
Apologies if anyone has already put these up, but if anyone wants to see the 5 day entries for the other races on the Arc card, see here: http://www2.france-galop.com/FGWeb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx?L=en Just click on the race title to see the horses entererd.
