Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2022

OK, more than enough has been said on the thread already, and so, without further ado, my choice will be Onesto. According to Pilgrim's above chart, the colt has about the worst draw of all, but what the heck! Will also have a modest e/w shekel or two on the outsider Mostahdaf.

 

Thought I would do a quick summary of the Arc field, in draw order:

1 Mendocino beat Torquator Tasso in the Grosser Preis von Baden last time and the owner’s retained jockey is aboard having won on the other horse in 2021; however, he has run four times in France and not troubled the judge.
2 Vadeni won the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Eclipse but steps up to twelve furlongs here, which history tells us is difficult to do, and his good draw is not so good as he is normally held up towards the rear so could have a wall of horses in front of him in the straight.
3 Do Deuce would seem to be the best chance of Japanese success if judging solely on home form but he would not be the first Japanese Derby winner to return vanquished; his warm up in the Prix Niel was only fair and he has done all his winning on fast ground.
4 Al Hakeem was fourth to Vadeni in the Prix Du Jockey Club, won a moderate Prix Guillaume d’Ornano last time and now steps up in trip.
5 Deep Bond was last in this in 2021 after winning the Prix Foy and comes here after three months off having been beaten by Titleholder back in Japan this year.
6 Alpinista has followed a Group 1 race path to here and the form of several of those races looks quite strong: the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud where Bubble Gift and Mare Australis were behind, the Grosser Preis von Berlin beating Torquator Tasso and the Grosser Preis von Bayern beating Mendocino.
7 Westover won the Irish Derby after just failing to snatch second at Epsom but was a major disappointment when last seen in the King George, trailing in behind Torquator Tasso, Mishriff and Broome.
8 Luxembourg won the Irish Champion ahead of Onesto having missed most of the season before warming up in a Group 3 event; will start favourite with the British bookies and has solid claims from a good draw.
9 Grand Glory was just denied in the Prix de l’Opera in 2021 and it is a surprise to see her not going for that race again as she did not look to get home in the Prix Vermeille last time over course and distance.
10 Titleholder has won his three starts in Japan but has not been seen for three months since the last of them, all of those wins were on fast ground (including beating Deep Bond) and it will be a tough ask here.
11 Onesto won the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance after fifth to Vadeni in the Prix Du Jockey Club, chased home Luxembourg in the Irish Champion (Vadeni behind) and looks like the home team’s best chance.
12 Alenquer was well beaten in the Irish Champion behind Luxembourg and Onesto, was last in the Eclipse, has been fitted with a visor and that will need to spark a lot of improvement if he is going to improve on last year’s ninth.
13 Bubble Gift was eighth in this last year after winning the Prix Niel and lines up here after a second in the Prix Foy, has blinkers fitted and was third to Alpinista in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.
14 Broome won Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last term but frequently failed at the top (well beaten in this in 2021) and may end up being the pace angle here.
15 Sealiway was fifth in this last year before winning the Champion Stakes (Mishriff behind), has not won since and will struggle to finish any closer than last year on this year’s form.
16 Mostahdaf won the September Stakes on the Kempton kitty litter but best form was probably well beaten second to Broome in the Hardwicke and now has blinkers fitted.
17 Mishriff retains a high rating but fails to live up to it more often than he is successful these days and the wide draw is no help to his cause.
18 Torquator Tasso won the race last year but now finds himself starting out in the forest and not in the same vein of form that he arrived in to shock Tarnawa in 2021 – was beaten by Mendocino last time.
19 Mare Australis was well beaten by Alpinista in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, has not been seen since and does not look likely to enhance trainer’s record.
20 Stay Foolish was beaten by Botanik in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville and Titleholder is a better horse back in Japan.

 

Racing Post predicting a Frankel 1-2-3

 

Of the ‘home team’ in the Arc, I like course and distance winner Onesto the best if the ‘very soft’ ground does not stop him. I note that Timeform are tipping Vadeni on SportingLife.com. As a relatively fresh horse, Luxembourg should give a good showing but I have that poor record of horses attempting this trip for the first time stuck in my head (even though I know he will stay). I simply cannot see any of the Japanese challengers winning. I posted previously about Titleholder’s chances of making all but I cannot see him getting an uncontested lead today and if he (or anyone else) goes off too quickly on this ground they will set it up for horses held up off the pace.

So I am going to have to stick with Sir Mark Prescott’s grey mare ALPINISTA, who has been trained for the race, to put in a career best on top of her exemplary record of seven wins from seven starts, the last five at Group 1 level, in 2021 and 2022.

Looking on the OddsChecker website as I write, I see that plenty are drifting including the front six in the betting.

 

◎Alpinista
〇Mostahdaf
▲Onesto
△Mishriff
☆Sealiway
✓Al Hakeem

Good luck

 

Fantastic result, a big well-done to QuarterMoonII and Oddy (and anyone else who selected the winner). This has been a wonderful result for horseracing, and am very happy for Sir Mark Prescott and his loyal staff and connections, jockey Luke Morris, and especially, the lady groom who has looked-after Alpinista for the mare's entire career.

I thought Vadeni ran a great race to finish second in ground conditions that really turned against the colt.

(...........and, phew, I don't have to do a penance outside City Hall. Thank goodness, as the weather is awful down here)

 

Backed Westover but like Swanny delighted Alpinista won. Watching the previous races decided I'd want to see my horse in the first half-dozen and on the inside. Westover was, but so was Alpinista. Thought Morris rode an intelligent race and did no more than he had to. He's not the most elegant jockey but effective, and gets the job done.
Can't believe Longchamp watered the course, just in case, earlier in the week. Spoils the spectacle.

 

Come on Swanny, you know you wanted to go out and do some yodelling...

I watched the race on Sky Sports Racing and when I saw how the price was collapsing on Alpinista, I knew I was on the right horse (Prescott having a touch in the biggest race in Europe).

Morris rode a very smart race. He stayed on the rail in about sixth leaving the leader to run itself into the ground going too quick on the ground. When they got into the straight the leader ducked in at the cut away leaving his path to the line wide open. I thought he perhaps went sooner than he wanted rather than disappoint his mare as once she had gone a couple of lengths clear she idled.

I have some sympathy with Frankie as Torquator Tasso was finishing down the outside with a wet sail but having been drawn in the forest his race was over before the gates opened and he needed another fifty yards to throw down a challenge.

 

I thought Morris judged it excellently. He knows the mare inside out, always had plenty of horse under him, trained to perfection by Prescott.

France Galop are a pain in the neck. They water all the big courses habitually with no regard to the weather forecast. A couple of times I went to Deauville for the Prix Jacques le Marois and it bucketed down with rain on the morning of the race leaving the ground like glue because the morons had the sprinklers on all week. The cynic in me thinks that they do this deliberately to skew the results in a French egalitarian way.

 

Can I just say that this thread has been an absolute corker from the very beginning. Don't want to give people big heads but a few should be patting themselves on the back this morn.

I would have liked to have contributed more, last week, but unfortunately work (boo hiss!!!) got in the way. Not going to claim to have backed the winner (because I didn't) but it was a delight to see her oblige for connections.

Because of her age and time since her last run Alpinista wasn't your typical Arc winner but several stats remain health moving forward. Namely (i) No horse since Star Appeal, in 1975, has won The Arc in the same season as running in a handicap (he was beaten, on his seasonal bow, at Cologne). (ii) Japanese trained runners are now 0/31 in the race. (iii) The last Arc winner to be having its first run, at the trip, was Saumarez in 1990. Now 0/28 since then. (iv) 14 of the last 17 winners of the Arc, run at Longchamp, broke from a single figure draw. 13 of these were no wider than stall 6. And (v) 17 of the last 20 winners of the race had run between 21 and 29 days prior to the Arc.

My early fancy, the 4YO Frankel colt Baratti, never made it to post but I remain very, very keen on him. Even more so now when you consider how the animal who beat him last time out (by a length) fared at the weekend...