Spike Milligan's Puckoon; even a stopped clock........ Boo-hoo .......... however after the misfortune with Manduro I am so pleased for Andre Fabre.
The strange thing was the many commentators, ex-jockeys and other pundits on both ITV and Sky Racing who stated that Waldgeist would be inconvenienced by the very soft ground.
I am pretty sure that, over the years, there have been many conflicting reports on the state of the ground at Longchamp during the weekend of Le Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe; some stating that it was not as 'soft' as reported. However, Sunday's ground seems to have been accurately reported by all concerned. My recent visits to Paris have always been to Auteuil for either the Grand Steeplechase in May or the big 'Week-End' in November. When it is given as 'soft' for these meetings it is likely to be almost bottomless!
Retrospect is a great thing, but I have to say that I was worried before they even went to the start. When Treve was trying for the hat-trick, I was at the course and I knew that she was not going to win as soon as she walked into the parade ring as she was not her usual self (having seen her three times previously including two Arcs). Watching on TV, I noticed that Enable had become very sweated up in the parade ring, something that I had not previously seen on any of her British racecourse visits. Not being in Paris, I cannot attest as to whether it was a muggy day at Longchamp and she was sweating because of that; but it was disconcerting to see. In the race itself, it was rather obvious that the tactics of the main challengers was to follow Enable and pounce late. Turning for home only Magical was in front of her whilst Japan, Sottsass and Waldgeist were tracking right behind. The most notable thing to happen was that Pierre Charles Boudot on the winner pulled his mount out wide of the field rather than go through a gap near the rails so that when he threw down his challenge in the last 200 metres he gave the mare as little chance to fight back as possible. Sottsass clearly did not get home, a combination of the ground and the distance I suspect. He looked to be going very well turning into the straight but emptied quickly when asked for his effort. Japan ran his race but simply was not good enough. That has been the story most of the season with the Classic generation. When Enable went to the front, I expect most of us watching thought she was going to do it but I think she did literally get stuck in the mud. The local description of the going as “very soft” suggests that it was probably what we would describe as “heavy”. She did not clear away and win emphatically but instead was running up and down on the spot, allowing Waldgeist to mow her down in the last fifty yards. It was clear that Frankie had nothing left as he did not throw the kitchen sink at Enable as the Fabre horse went past but coasted home in second. Victories for outsiders in the Opéra and the Abbaye with the favourites running no sort of race do suggest that conditions were desperate but there is nothing anyone could do about that. Did Ed Chamberlain win the cretin of the year award afterwards asking John Gosden three times whether it was Enable’s last race? He answered the first time that it was up to the owner – which part of that did he not understand? Gosden should have just shoved the microphone down his throat.
Sottsass finished 3rd after being closer than ideal to a strong pace, holding off a 12f G1 winner who was better placed off the pace. Stop talking utter pish to support your pre race position that he wouldnt stay, he stays 12f comfortably. Sottsass ran an almost identical race to Enable but not quite as good, are we saying that Enable doesnt stay 12f? She clearly does, the combination of the ground and being too close to the pace meant that both her and Sottsass had nothing left in the final furlong. Walgeist plodded on at the same pace while everything else ran out of gas. please log in to view this image
If they ran the first half of the race 2-3 seconds slower, or if the ground was decent, Sottsass and Enable wouldnt have fell in a hole the final furlong and she would have been a comfortable winner from him in 2nd with Waldgeist challenging Japan for 3rd. Efficiency won the Arc this year, the slowest horse of the first 3 finishers won the race because he ran more evenly than 2 horses who have more speed than him, it was a rare set up on extreme ground for the winner. The race has been knocked a bit but imo it was a decent Arc in comparison to some in recent years, the relentless gallop and ground exposed the limitations of every horse and the top 5 are high class, even though Magical was used as a pacemaker. Its not the sort of test you want to see too often on the flat but I suspect Waldgeist will make a very good National Hunt sire. For all that Enable is a champion and a superstar, Frankel would have to give upwards of a stone in a handicap and rightly so, she has never been in the same class, but shes a great mare, consistent and bomb proof high 120s every time, shes well worth a rating of 128 and it could be a while before we see another 12f mare with her qualities. Shes up there with Treve and Zarkava, although I think both of those fillies had the class to beat her on a going day, neither have a CV remotely close to matching hers.
Presumably since Sottsass stays longer than the mother-in-law, they will be heading for the Breeders’ Cup Turf not the Champion Stakes. I am sure that the bookies will be happy to lay him Stateside, especially if Waldgeist shows up too.
Why on earth would Waldgeist turn up? Got beat 15L on the sharp tracks there last season and that was on soft, it will likely be rattling in California this year and even tighter course, Sottsass would absolutely murder him round there on fast ground. If Enable goes to America the rest might as well not turn up, Champions Stakes would be far easier.
From the At The Races article by Kevin Blake:- "Many, including Gosden and Dettori, have pointed an accusatory finger at the ground, but I’m not so sure that was to blame. The thing is, the ground wasn’t riding nearly as testing as has been generally been reported. Official ground descriptions are often unreliable in France and this looks to be an example of that. Timeform produce their own ground descriptions after racing has taken place based on analysis of the race times. They have concluded that, far from being soft or even heavy as had been suggested, the ground at ParisLongchamp on Sunday rode good-to-soft." The race time was given as 1.47 seconds slower than standard and that seems fast enough if the the ground was very soft or heavy. Last year's Arc was run on ground given as Good and the time was fast by 1.26 seconds. How can it be that on ground some people are saying was Heavy this year, the difference in the winning time was only 2.73 seconds? You would expect them to be coming home shattered and clocking a very slow time if it were heavy ground. Waldgeist was reckoned by many not to be a soft ground horse and perhaps it wasn't soft and that is why he managed to prevail. Fabre's horse is not a traveller. He is 0/7 outside France and 9/14 in France. He was trained with one race in mind this season and he had a straight forward race in the trial. Blake also mentioned this:- "Prior to the race, it was interesting to hear Jason Weaver give an insight into Enable’s work at home of late on Sky Sports Racing. He suggested that the word was that her recent work had only been considered adequate. This concerned John Gosden enough that he had changed her routine and asked her to make the running in a recent gallop, seemingly in the hope of sparking her up." Gosden said he was not surprised that she had been beaten and he gave credit to Waldgeist. The French horse probably peaked on the day and performed better than he did last year as a 4YO. His Ganay win this term was impressive enough and he was 33/1 at that stage for a horse who was 4th last year when not getting the clearest of runs. He was still 20/1 when we knew that last year's 2nd and 3rd would not be in the field. For a plodder Waldgeist has done pretty well on home soil and it is worth remembering that he was only beaten a short head by French Guineas winner Brametot in the French Derby. It is also worth looking at his effort in the Irish Derby where he was a little short of room in 4th behind winner Capri, who later won the St Leger, Derby winner Wings Of Eagles was 3rd that day and a certain Cracksman was second. Not a bad effort for a horse with a poor travelling record. Waldgeist was underrated and there were clues in his form.
The ground was absolutely fine for Enable, she loves the mud and she quickened well between the 2 and the 1, what got her beat was chasing an overly strong pace in the conditions, not the conditions, if they went a crawl she would have won in a canter. I backed Waldgeist in the Irish Derby as the English Derby winner was probably the worst of all time that year and Cracksman was still a work in progress, he had no excuses in defeat. I dont buy into the bullshit about him being a poor traveller, if that was the case Fabre wouldnt be sending him round the world for 3 years, he simply was facing tougher competition on the road as opposed to at home where everyone has noted the lack of top French horses in recent years. Walgeists form in England was much stronger than his French form of beating Coronet a nose and the disappointing Study Of Man in the Ganay, Taj Mahal was beaten 1 1/2 in his French Derby which was won by the miler Brametot, his 3rds in the Prince of Wales and King George were a far higher standard.
To put the Arc pace into perspective, Ghaiyyath ran the first 1400m 4.5s faster than Mehdaayih in the proceeding 400m shorter Prix De LOpera, he was completely cooked turning in and was beaten 33L. Magical who chased him in 2nd, was in front at the 400 and walked home beaten 10L, Fierement who chased her in 3rd started to fold 800 out and finished 48L last. Blake claims that Frankie having to niggle Enable early suggests she wasnt at her best, but in reality, it was because she was having to work far harder than normal to lay handy off what can only be described as insane fractions given the conditions. Demuro was keen to keep Sottsass close behind her in what he thought was the ideal place to be, and while Sottsass had the speed to hold that position, the expense of that left him with little in the tank at the 400. The fact that Enable chased that pace and still quickened for me completely quashes any notion of her being below her best, she ran a remarkable race, only Japan who benefited from being held up clocked a quicker time between the 2 and the 1. Sottsass also deserves credit for holding Japan off despite chasing Enable all the way, but this race fully exposed a fair gulf in class between him and Enable. Waldgeist has spent his career being outpaced before running on when the race is over, and when Japan breezed past him 3f out it looked like more of the same, but this time the best horses in the race had done too much, and he was able to pick up up the pieces after running evenly from an ideal position. He was actually slowing down in the final furlong, but not to the same extent as Enable which is understandable given how her energy was used. Dettori will never get over this imo, if he gets to ride that race 10 more times he would win it 10 times, of course its easy in hindsight given the evidence of a pace collapse. When Norway set obscene fractions in the King George, Frankie allowed Enable to drop out and go her own pace in her own time, she ended up tracking Waldgeist there and she picked them up easily at the business end and won snugly enough, with Waldgeist left standing 3f out. One of Enables main assets is that versatility to sit anywhere in a race given any setup, and if Frankie had just trusted her that they were going too fast in front, he would have won the 3rd Arc.
RE the ground The Abbaye was the 2nd slowest time in the last 15 years. The Opera was the 3rd slowest in the last 15 years. The Boussac was the 3rd slowest in the last 15 years. The Lagadere was the slowest by almost 5 seconds since it was put back to 1600m in 2015. The Foret was the 3rd slowest in the last 20 years To suggest the ground was anywhere near good to soft is ludicrous, the time of the Arc was exceptional in the conditions due to the freakish scenario of multiple top class horses going an insane pace. I like Kevin Blake, hes an intelligent guy whos worth listening to but his MO as a journalist is being controversial to drum up interest and hes good at it, but its obvious he hasnt actually checked the facts in his Arc analysis, hand in too many pots at the minute maybe.
So how do you come to the conclusion waldgeist is a plodder changing gear 200 metres from home. Lester would be proud of that ride. He’d be lighting up a Lardy as he crossed the line.
If Eddie's time chart is anything to go by FP, Waldgeist must have changed to a slower gear in the final 200m. His second last split was run in 12:44 and his final 200m in 12:72. He was travelling slower in the last 200m, but Enable and Sottsass were even slower.
He obviously picked up the bit and ran on? I don’t think sectionals count for much on that ground and my argument being on Sunday with oddy on the going description. Waldgeist was th only horse in the field who had won on that ground round longchamp.
It always appears a horse has accelerated if it is not slowing down as much as the others. Clear from Joe's chart that Enable and Scottsass were treading water in the final furlong. I think it also backs up my thoughts that, had Frankie left it another furlong before going, that initial burst of acceleration may well have taken her to victory. I'm sure he wouldn't ride her like that again in the same conditions. He has probably had some sleepless nights, agonising over that Maybe she'll come back next year and prove it all wrong. I doubt it but you never know. Next year they have Logician
