I am forced to have a bet, just so I can watch the race on my phone, at work. chickenshit bet; Japan, 2.4 in the Bf place market
Not always the most reliable of sources - if you look at Ghaiyyath’s form they don’t even show his last victory in Germany
In the same race, the second from the Prix Niel ran like a drain. What does that mean for Sottsass in the Arc? Maybe nothing. For the record, the Prix De Royallieu only became a Group 1 race this year, elevated because of previous race history by the European pattern committee.
As a fully paid up member of the Enable fan club, I confess that I will just be watching the Arc and cheering for one horse. So I thought I would do a hatchet job on the main contenders in the field: Japan – won a mediocre Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance and beat Crystal Ocean in a dubious looking Juddmonte International at York. Sottsass – won the Prix Du Jockey Club where the favourite did not stay and won the Prix Niel in a manner that did not prove that he truly stays twelve furlongs. Waldgeist – has not won a race with a double-digit field since he was a two year old and has not looked like beating Enable on either of their meetings. Magical – has shown all her best form over ten furlongs and is 0-4 against Enable. Ghaiyyath – won a German Group 1 race that has produced no subsequent winners and was previously well beaten by Waldgeist in the Prix Ganay.
Gosden absolutely raging there, no wonder, beat by that rag they've beaten umpteen times. Dettori too close to a ridiculous pace on the ground, look where ghayath ended up and how magical emptied. Field strung out like 3 mile chasers. If Dettori was more patient like the king george she would have won easily, just shows the pressure gets even to the best.
Nearly cried. Yesterday, decided to go but changed our minds late last night. Thanks God we didn't go. Gutted
Oh well, it wasn't to be for Enable. I was hoping they would focus her season solely on the Arc but they decided to take in the King George and Yorkshire Oaks along the way. She had a tough race against Crystal Ocean in the King George even if observers wanted to make out that it was a "cosy" neck success. That kidology might work in convincing themselves but it was a hard race all the same. Enable looked like winning today but it just seemed as if age and a tough enough season caught up with the mare trying to defy Old Father Time and Waldgeist came through to mow her down decisively. I said on September 4th:- "I feel that at 3 times the price of Japan and double the odds of Sottsass, Waldgeist is the best value at 16/1." He was still available at 16/1 yesterday with 4 places or 20/1 with 3 places. He was clearly underestimated. If he's a plodder, then Sottsass and Japan are no speed demons themselves. I have been against Ghaiyyath since the Prix Ganay and said that his new OR was nonsense. He's a bully against inferior horses but he quickly folded in the Ganay and he was rubbish today, folding like a tuppenny concertina. I expect a quick decline in his official rating now. Yet again assessors got carried away by a wide margin win and he beat Handicap grade horses in Germany last time. I hope I persuaded some not to take the poor value odds he was. Magical was no factor today either and she is decent enough but has enjoyed most of her success against weak opponents. The others today were simply no factor in what was a mediocre looking renewal of the Arc. Enable has been tough and pretty gritty at times in her career but she does not have the turn of foot some of the great ones have had and it's been a strong constitution that has been her biggest asset during a time where the slightly short of top class Crystal Ocean and Magical have been her main challengers. Some might say Sea Of Class might have had a say this year had tragedy not struck but the ground would have been totally against her and she probably would not have run. Today's winning time was four and a half seconds slower than Sottsass clocked in the Prix Niel and it is worth noting that although the colt had form on soft, it was at shorter distances against vastly inferior opponents. You need to see form at the appropriate trip and against top opponents in order to conclude that a horse is truly effective on a particular surface. An underwhelming race really and I doubt that Waldgeist really was 7 lbs better on Racing Post Ratings this year with 128, compared to 121 last season. It's more likely that time has caught up with Enable and she may also have had one race too many coming in. The well get's dry more quickly aged 5 than it does in earlier years.
My friend just sent a photo from her uncle who was at longchamp and won 2,000,000 euros on a 50 cent quad pot on the Pari mutual.
Waldgeist was in the right place at the right time in the conditions, Magical and Ghayaath stopped to a walk in the straight, Fierement who was up there early finished about 40L last. Enable chased a suicidal pace and that cost her the race, she has beaten Waldgeist almost a combined 20L the last 4 times she ran against him. Japan walked past Waldgeist in the straight and it looked like his typical run, outpaced and then staying on when its over, only today his main rivals had done too much and had nothing left in the ground allowing him to pick up the pieces. Sottsaas stayed as expected, he just wasnt good enough to trouble Enable. There will never be a better chance to win 3 Arcs than this, and imo Dettori ****ed it up, hes deserved all the credit the last few years for inspired rides but he shouldnt be getting beaten by Waldgeist on Enable.
I agree. I believe Frankie made a booboo going so early in that ground. It wasn't soft, it was very soft. As Gosden said before the race, his stick disappeared in places. He said she has run on soft, but not that soft, and he didn't seem too confident how Enable might act on it. Frankie took the lead a fair way out and was outstayed. He obviously thought it was the right thing to do but it will be interesting to hear what he says. Unfortunately, I was so sickened by her getting beaten that I didn't watch the after race interviews. It's been a very miserable evening here. We love Enable to bits here. She is so beautiful, in every respect. Heart breaking to watch that
Frankie said that she was tired at the furlong. He also blamed the ground. I think he should have also mentioned the passing of time. “The ground was very sticky and I struggled in the first bit of the race,” Dettori said. “I let her find her feet and she came good to me in the false straight. I waited for the 300 metres [pole] but didn’t find as much as I thought. She just folded a bit and the winner was too good for me today, but my filly was already tired. I passed the 200 and I was a spent force then. I think ground had a lot to do with it.”
