Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2019

I think if you read closely you would conclude that one of us did...yet the other did not.

Good night

 

It's only 6.30 stick. Are you on a promise?

 

Always

 

Lucky sod

 

After having viewed a recording of yesterday's race at Ascot a couple of times I decided to break my gambling fast and enter the Arc fray on Waldgeist at 33/1 each way (Corals and Ladbrokes). My fifteen minute delay meant I missed the price!

Boo-Hoo!

 

Would love to see Enable win the Arc then finish her career in the Japan Cup against Almond Eye, would be unreal if she went to Japan for that matchup, betting records would get smashed, would be incredible for the sport.

 

Can't see it somehow. If she wins the Arc it will be a well deserved retirement. Connections of Almond Eye were coming to Europe but decided against it. Understanding is that they feel they can't beat Enable. They can meet in the Arc but if they don't send her over to take on Enable, I don't see why Enable should be sent there and I just can't see it happening

 

No chance of happening, just saying it would be something else if it did, just like Black Caviar vs Frankel. Racing really doesnt do itself any favours in the rare times when there are a couple of superstars around, it has so much potential for international box office clashes which could elevate the sport but it doesnt elevate the owners bank accounts so they dont care. Was really poor from Winx connections to keep her in Australia beating G3 horses for 5 years.

Enable is odds on to be retired after winning the Arc or maybe go to America if she gets beat.

Almond Eye didnt take the travel to Dubai well, thats why they decided not to go for the Arc, one thing about the Japanese, they are sporting with their horses, Almond Eye would have came for the Arc 100% if they felt she travelled well.

 

Waldgeist’s third at Ascot underlines how poorly so many of the others ran. Anthony Van Dyck’s effort was over with half a mile left to run, Magic Wand hit a brick wall early in the straight and Defoe never got out of the last three. Cheval Grand looked well before the race but he never got involved either.

Waldgeist is a soft ground, small field home-boy. At least the Arc is run at a course where he likes to race and the ground may come up soft – not a problem for Enable – but I do not believe that it will be a small field because of the money involved and I am reasonably certain that Ballydoyle will run five or six because if you are not in it you cannot win it.

The best hope for any of them is that Enable gets drawn wide and that Frankie is forced to try and get her a good position by using up some of her tactical speed early in the race. He does not want to be coming wide into the straight at Longchamp as she will end up having run further than the rest and she becomes vulnerable to tactics by the rest of the field.

 

Waldgeist was the clear 3rd choice on his best form, his Ganay win suggested he had improved as a 5yo and yesterday confirmed that, hell be rated about 124 now. Anthony Van Dyck was trading on being a Derby winner rather than the merit of that race which was 118 if your lucky, he couldnt lay a glove on a pacemaker in the Irish Derby and im amazed anyone found a case for backing him yesterday. Magic Wand is an inconsistent filly who is around 111-112 on her best days. Cheval Grand is an admirable horse but he generally fills the places in Japan and the ground change cost him any slim hope of a place.

 

My thoughts were based on my judgement that Saturday's race was by far the best 2400m. form seen this year. Despite Enable and Crystal Spirit going hard at it from two furlongs out Waldgeist was not left wanting with a lengthening gap developing between the first two and the third. The 33/1 on offer to finish in the first three at Longchamp in early October seemed a very reasonable investment.

As the 'price' has gone I will only be a very interested observer.

 

I do not think that anybody will be astonished by the changes in the market after the two significant big races at the York Ebor meeting...

Evens Enable
6/1 Japan
8/1 Crystal Ocean
9/1 Sottsass
16/1 Waldgeist
20/1 Magical
25/1 Anapurna, Iridessa, Blast Onepiece, Slalom

Hills must have bad Enable liabilities as the next three in the betting are all biggest with them.

The bookmakers are clearly of the opinion that Japan is the only realistic challenger amongst the Classic generation; and I am inclined to think that those with ante-post tickets for the St Leger can use them to light a fire as O’Brien has enough other options for Town Moor. Personally I think that the way that Japan has been assessed after the Juddmonte is a total joke and the only way he will beat Enable is if she is drawn 20 and Ballydoyle box her in with six other runners. She looks bomb-proof: at York, Frankie had clearly decided that he was not going to let Ballydoyle turn it into a sprint with the pacemaker, so he was out the gate and gone. I bet France Galop have already hiked the admission prices expecting to fleece the Brits and Irish even more than last year.

 

Won the French Derby in an incredibly fast time. If the race was at Chantilly over 10f on a sound surface, I'm not sure I would fancy Enable's chances at the weights. Over 12 at Longchamp where the ground could be softer, he might struggle in the last furlong against Enable. I think I would be more worried about Japan, maybe Anapurna if it comes up soft and Logician if supplemented

 

Was anybody watching the Grosser Preis Von Baden on Sunday? If you German is good, watch here.

It turned out to be a procession as the Charlie Appleby trained Ghaiyyath hosed up by officially fourteen lengths. If you cannot remember having seen the four year old there is a good reason. He has not run in Britain since winning the 2017 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket as a two year old. Having missed most of his three year old season, he won the Group 3 Prix Prince d’Orange at Longchamp on his only start and won the Group 2 Prix de Harcourt at the same track this April beating Soleil Marin and Intellogent. His third in the Prix Ganay, behind Waldgeist and Study Of Man, with Soleil Marin and Intellogent behind again, suggests the German race may not have been that good. The German Derby winner Laccario was a remote third and the only other British raider Communique was never dangerous.

Ghaiyyath does hold an Arc entry if they can keep the horse healthy for a couple of months. The bookies halved his odds to 16/1 immediately after his German romp and there will surely be each-way takers given the paucity of opposition to the hat-trick seeking mare.

 

These wide margin wins are usually overrated by the assessors and never really seem to pan out. The notion that Ghaiyyath is roughly the equal of Enable on the basis of one win in an egg and spoon Group 1 is nonsense. Enable has a handful of ratings in similar territory and has a list of proper Group 1 successes to her name. Ghaiyyath has ONE ropey looking rating at the same level.

Ghaiyyath seemed exposed behind Waldgeist and the overrated Study Of Man in the Ganay. He bullied a sub quality field in Germany, where Communique ran like a plater. I put four quid on Ghaiyyath for the Arc early in the season but binned the ticket after the Ganay. The game was up that day and I don't expect to be scouring Landfill sites for a winning voucher come Arc night.

For me there would also be a big chance of a bounce from Ghaiyyath and he's not taken much racing in the past. He'd be a boom or bust horse for me and therefore not an each-way shot. Best price for the Arc is now 10/1 and at 2/1 for the place part you would be betting 1/2 your money each-way if you assume the odds-on favourite Enable will win. I don't fancy putting £1 EW on at 10/1 to get £3 back if he is second or third.

For me Waldgeist is the clear each-way selection for the Arc. 4th last year when not getting a clear run he has looked pretty good this season. His Ganay win was impressive and it was soft when he was a shade disappointing at Royal Ascot. A decent run in the King George behind Enable and his decent Longchamp form are reasons for encouragement. He was disappointing in the Breeders Cup and at Shatin in November and December last year but he had been on the go since April that season and you could forgive those runs in foreign countries.

I feel that at 3 times the price of Japan and double the odds of Sottsass, Waldgeist is the best value at 16/1.

 

The Prix Neil is the plan, although it was a bit disconcerting to see Jean-Claude Rouget quoted as saying he will go to the Niel 80% ready.

The trip is the big question with Sottsass and the French Derby didn't look strong to me. Fabre immediately said the trip was too far for Persian King and he revealed much later that the French Guineas winner had finished very sore after the French Derby and would probably miss the rest of the season. On the plus side Sottsass is still unexposed, plus he may have progressed over the summer. He's interesting for sure.

 

Is it possible that the horse may have come on a fair bit since April QM? Appleby thought the US$1,700,000 Goffs purchase, a Derby prospect before he went amiss. Both Appleby and Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum have a high opinion of him.

 

I have had more than a few reviews of Waldgeist's third behind Enable and Crystal Ocean. Every time I view it I become more impressed.

Waiting to see Sottsass on Tials Day.

Carroll House, Marienbard .... Danedream!!!!!!

 

Been out of the loop for many years; anybody know when the fields are released for Paris Longchamp on Sunday?

Just got the fields from the Equidia website. Interesting clash in the Prix Foy between Waldgeist and Kiseki.