Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2018

Only value in the betting is backing Enable at 5/1 and hope everything goes to plan.

Good ground Poet's Word beats him. Anything softer and he probably doesn't but then again their unlikely to run him on soft when they can go to America and guarantee fast ground.

 

The King George went perfectly for him though. Got the perfect toe into the race and got a six length lead on Poet's Word. Remarkable how he got beat from there in all honesty.

Hard to suggest he wasn't viewed as a Ledger horse though. He'd be the first horse to run in the Gordon and then the Ledger and not be a Ledger horse.

What do you make of the Prix De Jockey Club form? Looks pretty average so far but he obviously has scope to improve.

 

Wouldn't bet at this stage but I'm thinking if Enable doesn't turn up and the ground is good or softer Cracksman will be much shorter than 7/1 on the day. He won't have any fillies/mares to take his mind off things in October as they will all be out of season. Despite having an off day against Poet's Word on ground too firm and a distance short of his best it was a fast time and Poet's Word then won the KG in a very fast time. An on form Cracksman will take all the beating in October. And given the way Crystal Ocean was rallying at the post in the KG, I believe he would be the one to give Cracksman a race

 

He ran in the Dante and obviously wasnt good enough for the Derby at the time so went for the King Edward and after getting beat there the Leger was an obvious target, think he just wasnt good enough early as a 3yo. He was running to 115ish then, hes now run to at least 127, 129 officially over 1m4, thats Arc level in any year. Hes just a proper 1m4 horse, typical Stoute improver, from a family of high class 1m4 horses, you run sub 1:26 for 1m4 at Ascot you are not slow, he had a good kick off a strong pace to go clear and just got caught by a horse whos absolutely thriving. Obviously its not Enable superstar level but you can only guess and hope about her this season. If she turned up at York and was the same Enable then that changes everything but I cant see it happening.

Think the Jockey Club form has worked out better than any other classic this season, been a golden goose really. Multiple G1, G2 and G3 winners from it.

 

Cracksman has the ability but has not looked straight forward at all this season, also couple of runs on firm ground might have effected him, would explain Gosden not taking a chance in the King George. Hed had a few rough races and that decision to skip the King George was the right one in my opinion, especially for his chances in this race, he will be favourite if Enable doesnt make it, no doubt about that.

 

They were awful races him won though. Beat horses who struggle to win listed races. Taking those ratings literally is a dangerous game.

 

Im only talking about his last run in the King George, his first hard race of the season with a proper top level gallop. He was winning lesser races hands and heels and has not had a hard season by any means, thats also a plus for his chances in this race.

 

Cracksman is a 120-122 horse. Beating two horses who hate soft ground at Ascot flattered him. The handicapper doesn't drop horses by five pounds in one go unless he believes their rating is completely wrong.

 

Cracksmans 130 was based on one run on quite extreme ground and has rightly been reassessed. I think 125 is fair enough based on this season but also think he is capable of slightly higher, 122 is definitely too low.

 

I couldn't argue over a couple of pounds with him because it's hard to know what his true running is. Second in the Irish Derby(+ a few pounds) was probably his best three year old performance(outside of that champion stakes!).
Don't know where to start with this years form.

 

Either way I'd rather take 5/1 on Enable running to within half a stone of last year's form and take it on the chin if she doesn't show up.

 

Is she runs 7 pounds lower than last year at 4yo weights which is 7 pounds more, that probably won't be good enough. Can see your point though, if she comes back looking good you've got 5/1 about a 2/1 shot, but the risk that she wont is factored in.

Poet's Word will remain in training in 2019 as the dual Group One winner is poised for another outing in Dubai.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained five-year-old is bidding for a summer hat-trick in the Juddmonte International at York this month, having already sealed victories in the Prince of Wales's Stakes and edged out stablemate Crystal Ocean in the King George.

With the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe an unlikely destination for Poet's Word, the next appearance after York is set to be the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders' Cup, before a trip back to Dubai in a bid to go one better than his second place in the Sheema Classic in March.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Saeed Suhail, said: "York is still on the agenda, as are a few of those nice races coming up, but York is what we are thinking.

"There's York and then the Irish Champion Stakes, but I don't think the Arc is really on his agenda, maybe the Breeders' Cup.

"I don't think he'd want soft ground so the Arc hasn't ever really been in our thoughts.

"The owner would like to take him back to Dubai and I'm sure he'll be in training next year. He'll either run in the Sheema Classic again or the World Cup, which is very prestigious."

 

Enable to make Kempton comeback in September if she is unable to make York. Read all about it here

 

Will that be on the dirt/fibresand or whatever?

 

Grimthorpe had talked about wanting good, even ground for the four-year-old Nathaniel filly, wherever her first run back may be, and Clifford stressed Kempton provides exactly that, especially after a recent £340,000 refurbishment of the racing surface this summer.

He added: "We’ve had horses gallop on there this week and everyone's feedback was very positive."

 

Sadly, it will be on the polytrack. The race has been run on there since 2006. This year it is on 8th September.

I am surprised that they have not nominated the Newbury Arc Trial in September, although she would have a Group 1 penalty and it is on 22nd September, two weeks before the big race. I know Gosden does not like the Longchamp Arc Trials because he thinks they are too close to the race, so the Prix Vermeille is probably out on 16th September.

It is a shame that the Select Stakes at Goodwood no longer exists. When Dancing Brave won it as his warm up race before the Arc in 1986, no SP was returned because in those days with 10 per cent betting tax no punter would actually have won anything. The field that day was comprised of a load of handicappers, one of which was a pacemaker put in by Guy Harwood for his star, who won in a canter.

 

According to SportingLife.com, Enable has been entered for the Group 2 Blandford Stakes at The Curragh on 16th September.

As that is Arc Trials Day, surely it would make more sense to go for the Group 1 Prix Vermeille with no penalty and €600,000 in the pot?

If one is too close to the Arc (three weeks), surely the other is given that the time difference is only one hour! Will have to wait and see whether they enter her for the Vermeille as it closes on 22nd August.

 

I know Enable was a very good 'Arc' winner however the Prix Vermeille after a long lay off does not seem wise. Even if she was back fully fit and retaining 95% of her 2017 ability this could knock the stuffing out of her. From knowledge the Vermeille on 'Trials Day' is the one race that is certainly not a trial for the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe but is a true international Group 1 championship race in it's own right. Her 2017 record means there is nothing to be gained from the Vermeille apart from experience at Longchamp.

The Group 2 Blandford at The Curragh seems perfect.

I clearly do not 'know' the horse or have experience of training racehorses so I could be spouting complete nonsense.

 

Difference of opinion is what makes horse races (so somebody famously said).

If Enable had run in last year’s Prix Vermeille, she would have won it in a canter. The French do not appear to have any top-draw middle distance fillies this year, so I expect that Bateel will be the one to beat (assuming that is her intended target). An eighty per cent fit Enable would make the first three and it would give her a look at Longchamp.

In the Blandford she would have to (give weight to and) beat half a dozen Aidan O’Brien fillies.

I should confess a total bias here as I am off to Arc Trials Day – first look at the ‘new’ Longchamp – so I won’t see her on a racecourse again unless she goes to York instead.

 

Hope you enjoy the 'new' Longchamp. Many happy memories of the 'old' place, usually on 'Arc' day. My favourites, although my memory is not what it was, were Pientre Celebre, Montjeu (favourite flat horse) and the strange day that had Rail Link defeating Deep Impact. I believe the days of very inexpensive entry for the top French flat races have gone.

My Mum preferred St Cloud or Maissons-Laffitte as both included some peace and quiet away from the madness of central Paris.

I now prefer Auteuil, either for the Grand Steeplechase de Paris in May or the 'Week-End International de l'Obstacle' in November. Seriously thinking about a visit in May 2019. Usual plan; Easyjet out, 4/5 nights in Paris, pre-booked Eurostar with 2/3 nights in London then pre-booked train home.

Edit; have just noticed your 'rant' about the Eurostar on Trials Day. Is patience a virtue?