Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2018

The Japanese don't appear to have a standout this year either, the champ Kitasan Black has retired and Satono Diamond looks gone at the game, the Hong Kong horse Werther was bit unlucky not to win the Takarazuka Kinen and Cheval Grand will probably be aimed at the Japan Cup so can't see them having an older horse anywhere near good enough.

Danon Premium was expected to be champion 3yo but his bubble burst in the Derby where they finished in a bit of a heap, Wagnerion beating the guineas winner Epoca Doro, most of them will be aimed at the Japanese leger rather than the arc id imagine. Personally I don't think it's their year.

Enable was the first english/Irish oaks winner to win the arc in long time and Sea of Class probably has another 10 pounds to find to run to 125 which is what is usually needed, can see why they would fancy a shot with her though. I won't be surprised if Shahnaza still turns out the best 3yo filly in the Arc, see what happens in the vermille.

The Irish champion is usually the best race in Europe outside the arc and looks like it will be again this year.

 

Many thanks indeed, Boris. Will slowly do my own breeding, etc., check, separate the real possibilities into ground preferences (based on form and breeding), and wait for the prevailing conditions on, say, the day before the race. All the usual stuff, which many of us do, I'm sure. As I've often said, ante-post is an almighty gamble IMHO?

 

Nearly weakened yesterday and invested some funds on a few close to the head of the 'Arc' market however my will to cease 'wasting' my money held.








A close thing however I can now look forward to spending my funds wisely on wine, women and song! Roll on Koln in Oktober!

 

Poets Word beating Cracksman in the Prince of Wales is clearly the performance of the season so far and if backs it up in the King George that 12/1 will get cut in half. It was a massive career best from Poets Word but he had a dream set up in the race and ascot can sometimes produce freak rating performances so I'd like to see him run to 127 in the Irish Champion before I really believe he's improved that much.

I'm on Study of Man but he needs to keep progressing, I don't think there is another 3yo colt with the potential of him but can only rate him about 118 at this stage. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion look like 120 horses and best at 10f, they don't look to have as much potential improvement as Study Of Man who's only had 1 top level experience and only 4 runs.

 

Have to say Poets Word is the top horse in Europe as it stands this season after back to back 125+ performances. The negatives for him in the Arc are that only 3 5yo's have won it in about 70 years and were he to run big in the Juddmonte and Irish Champion it would start to look like a tough season. Hes only had 4 runs but was out in Meydan in March and those last two races must have took something out of him, another two top level events before the Arc could take the edge off him, you would imagine they will strike while the iron is hot, especially if the ground stays fast, rather than wrap him up for October when he might not get his ground.

The runner up Crystal Ocean has run a career best and he might be the more likely candidate for this, this was his first hard race of the season really as he won the Hardwicke hands and heels. Hes not as ground dependant as Poets Word or as versatile trip wise so I doubt they will be interested in the 1m2 races with him, he could be prepared specifically for the Arc now with one prep in the Prix Foy maybe.

 

That seems like a good summary to me

 

I’ve just watched the king George and if I was Ryan Moore I’d be on the blower to Stoute to jock off crystal oceans jockey for the arc. That’s if the boys don’t look like having a winner.

 

Looking to go over to France for this this year, does anyone know where the best place would be to stay or a ballpark idea. Ideally somewhere that'll have a decent nightlife as it'll be with the chaps but then not a million miles away from the course. Just had a look on the map and im stumped so any help from a more wiser head would be appreciated.

 

Before Poet’s Word won the King George, the last time it had gone to a five year old was Daylami back in 1999. The truth of the matter is that not many top horses are still in training as five year olds having been packed off to stud. The fact that five year olds scarcely win the Arc is probably down to how few actually contest it, especially given that geldings are ineligible (so, for example, Cirrus Des Aigles was not able to run).

What probably is not evident to the TV/replay viewer is that they were racing into quite a strong head wind at Ascot on Saturday. With Crystal Ocean committed for home early in the straight, he was fighting the wind while the winner was still being held up at the back.

I was told by a local on the train that there was hardly any rain on Friday night. That surely benefited Poet’s Word most as he clearly likes to hear his hooves rattle. Gosden leaving Cracksman in the race meant the bookies probably did little trade until he was inevitably withdrawn as punters did not want the 25p/30p Rule 4 on the early odds.

I am not so sure that Sir Michael would go to the Prix Foy with Crystal Ocean. It is only a Group 2 race and they will surely be looking for a Group 1. Also with the way that French races are run, they would probably have to employ a pacemaker as there is usually only half a dozen runners.

 

Can't help you I'm afraid. When we stayed overnight it was near to Chantilly about 10 mins from that course. When we went to Longchamp, we drove there in the morning and came home after the races.

 

When I went for Arc weekend, I would stay just across the River Seine from the racecourse in either Suresnes or Puteaux; however, neither of those fit the bill if you and the lads are looking for nightlife.

 

I agree not many of the top horses are still racing at 5 and id be more concerned about him having an ideal prep.

Im not sure what they will do with Crystal Ocean but I dont think there is a suitable Group 1 for him before the Arc. They have Poets Word for the Juddmonte so the Foy would be my choice for an easy prep and there is still the BC Turf and Hong Kong/Japan later on. Stoute has sent some to Canada to pick up a Group 1 but surely this horse is too good for that, the likes of Cannock Chase and Hillstar were G2 horses who had to go there to win a G1.

 

Looks like Mirage Dancer could be one for the Canadian International, hes finally starting to fulfil his potential and could be a serious horse as a 5yo next season.

Poets Word went for a little walk on betfair suggesting that Crystal Ocean could be Stoutes number 1 Arc challenger as suspected.

Study Of Man reported to be in decent nick and on target to run a week on Wednesday before going to the Irish Champion. Hopefully that top level experience and subsequent break will have taken him to the next level and we see something explosive. Looking at the market, he is the one horse at 14/1 with the potential to end up significantly shorter and hes still my favourite for the race.

Sea Of Class looks the only other legit 3yo prospect but like Study Of Man, she needs to keep improving, I think the colt has more potential but well see.

The suggestions for Enables return keep getting further and further away with the Arc trial at Newbury the latest mentioned, she remains a massive doubt to make the race in the kind of condition necessary to win it. It would be the training performance of all time and as I said early on, I wont be surprised if they just call it a day with her, especially if there is any other semblance of a setback.

 

I feel you might be right, but that would be better than having to be retired following a disappointing Arc. I hope she can turn up ready for battle but we are only 2 months from the Arc and if she isn't race ready for a trial very soon, I can't see her turning up

 

Ye're not seriously considering Crystal Ocean as an Arc contender are ye?

Looks a one paced stayer who's won a few despairingly weak group races this year. Him being campaigned as a Leger horse as a three year old surely sends out enough of a warning. Stayers don't win the Arc. Some run well but they don't win it.

 

Without looking at the records, I think that maybe some have won

 

Possibly more likely he'll be targeting the Breeders Cup. Fast ground would be essential for him.

 

Neither did I but he'd need five or six of the classier types to miss it for him to have a chance. Been out classed by Poet's Word in the KG and tat was a two horse race.

 

I'd be confident he would beat Poet's Word over 12f on anything softer than gf

 

Im not backing at the minute him but I think its impossible to not make him one of the main contenders this year, his run in the King George with Poets Word is the best middle distance form in Europe this season by some way, high 120s, Cracksman also ties into that form with his Prince Of Wales run. Crystal Ocean was never a typical leger horse for me and probably didnt stay well enough after travelling all over them, that was a hot Leger too with Melbourne Cup and Gold Cup winners coming out of it. Hes just produced a career best and could be given a perfect preparation for the race, if Study Of Man hasnt improved then ill definitely be considering Crystal Ocean.