When I read "Anybody that thinks that Cracksman is a 130-rated horse should" I was expecting something different to follow, "head to the priory" for example. His official rating is down to 125 now. He has never been a 130 horse. Hes a good horse but hes not a champion, hes been beaten every time in the important races and his best form is from Ascot on extreme going which cant be taken literally, the latter of those suggesting he is developing mental issues, and despite his last two runs being a G1 win and a G1 second, he looks like hes going the wrong way. Crystal Ocean and Poets Word are no superstars but they are straight forward, solid horses who are going the right way, I dont think either of them are Arc winners but they have a chance in the King George. Id like to see Poets Word take on Masar in the Eclipse, to see if he can back up that huge career best away from Ascot and to see where the 3yo's stand.
Sadly, I think you are right Joe. I think he was a horse with massive potential but, if he thinks he is a stallion ready for duties, then he can't be trusted when there are fillies/mares around. It will be a real shame if neither Cracksman (on his best behaviour) nor Enable make it to Longchamp. The 2 you mention are interesting, being progressive and I also will be interested to see what Capri has to offer
The latest betting on betfair Enable - 6.2 Cracksman - 8.6 Study of Man - 13 Masar - 17.5 Capri - 17.5 Waldgeist - 18.5 Forvever Together - 21 Laurens - 23 Crystal Ocean - 27 Saxon Warrior - 32 Magic Wand - 36 Lah Ti Dar - 42 Stradivarius - 44 Dchingis Secret - 48 Bateel - 55 Saloueen - 55 Sea of Class - 65 Poets Word - 75 Happily - 75 Defoe - 75 Latrobe - 80 Shahnaza - 85
Whether it is or not, I’m sure they will clean up their own horse **** and give the stables a good wash
Was at Longchamp the year of 'Deep Impact'. Got interviewed by a delightful young lady from Japanese TV; ended up discussing the German breeding ('equine' ya dirty toerag) industry. Went in the huff when I discovered that they were handing out only wee French, Japanese, Irish and UK flags to the punters. The day was however saved when my newly found and whisky loving Japanese chums completely screwed up the PMU prices so I backed the European cuddies in 'Gagnant', 'Jumele Gagnant' and 'Jumele Place' bets. Great early evening followed in the rub-a-dubs, bistros and brasseries on Rue d'Auteuil!
Study of Man being aimed at the Irish Champion and Arc, next run will be G2 at Deauville in 5 weeks. Niarchos racing manager Alan Cooper said: "The plan is that we're going for the Guillaume d’Ornano on the 15th of August with a view to going to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes. If all goes well we could consider stepping up in trip for the Arc. "Pascal wants to take his time before stepping him up and this seems a very sensible route. We’ve given him more time to mature and he's in good form. It’s a nice bit of downtime before building back up as he'll have had ten weeks from the Jockey Club."
The latest Arc market has some totally predictable alterations after recent races. 11/2 Enable 7/1 Cracksman 10/1 Masar (clearly some bookmakers not aware he is out for the season) 12/1 Poets Word 14/1 Crystal Ocean 16/1 Study Of Man 20/1 Waldgeist, Saxon Warrior, Latrobe 25/1 Forever Together, Lah Ti Dar, Kew Gardens, Magic Wand, Capri, Roaring Lion, Windstoss Speaking to ITV on Saturday, John Gosden reported that Enable is back in training, suggesting that there is every chance that she will be back on the racecourse in August and heading for a defence of her crown.
At this point, and if I was still punting, I would go for the fairly unspectacular Crystal Ocean at 14/1.
I stuck my two shillings on Enable yesterday before the Irish Oaks figuring that with the two Ballydoyle participants both featuring highly in the Arc betting, only one of them would still be listed today and the rest would shorten... Looks like I was wrong as neither of the Ballydoyle fillies won, Magic Wand went out to 40/1 (supposedly wants quick ground so should be double that for Longchamp) and Epsom Oaks winner Forever Together went out to 25/1. 5/1 Enable 7/1 Cracksman 10/1 Masar (non-runner!) 12/1 Poets Word 14/1 Crystal Ocean 16/1 Study Of Man 20/1 Sea Of Class, Saxon Warrior, Waldgeist, Latrobe 25/1 Kew Gardens, Lah Ti Dar, Roaring Lion, Windstoss, Forever Together, Capri, NeufBosc
Why do you keep quoting masar just because betway still have it in, we know it out so no point putting it in. 16s have gone on Study of Man as well, 14/1 best price. And I'm sure the last time I checked the chances of fast ground in the arc is about 50/50 over the years.
Suppose it is too late for Andre Fabre to release another 'Rail Link' so, if still punting, it would be the unspectacular Crystal Ocean for me; has the look of a Dylan Thomas!
If Betway can find some mugs to back a non-runner ante post, good luck to them. They should have Shergar in the betting – he is not officially dead or a gelding. The odds that I quoted came off Oddschecker directly as I had their Arc betting open in another browser window. If someone put a bet on subsequently and it shortened, that is how betting works! We all know that French going reports bare no relationship to reality. I have been at Deauville when the going has been “good” after three hours of rain, when I stood on the seat in a bus shelter as the street ran like a river.
Boris, why on earth don't you change your pseudonym to something like Chameleon, or BorisChameleon even, and be done with it? This will stop all this crazy name-changing. Are you 'on the run', or something?
Interesting that Poets Word is shorter in the Arc betting than Crystal Ocean, yet they are the other way round in the King George betting. There are still the Arc Trials in September if Fabre has a dark horse hidden somewhere. If Waldgeist shows up at Ascot, three or four prices will change by Saturday night. The fact that Sea Of Class was able to transition from listed class to a Group 1 Classic in one go suggests that either she is rapidly improving – not impossible – or that the race was moderate. Of course it could be both. If she is a top draw three year old then the 20/1 for the Arc might look very generous in a couple of months’ time; however, I think the bookies may be taking the same view as me. None of the Ballydoyle three year old fillies has gone on this year; and the ones that were the top two year olds last year have been beating each other just as they did in 2017. When Sea Of Class meets the older horses, we will hopefully get a reliable yardstick by which to measure.
This Arc is beginning to look very open. Last year I thought Enable was almost a shoe-in to make the double. Then the way Cracksman progressed I thought it was a simple case of one or the other. However, with Enable out for so long and Cracksman disgracing himself (should be OK in October as no mares/fillies in season then) and with more progressive colts and fillies arriving on the scene (Poets Word, Crystal Ocean, Waldgeist and Sea Of Class) - add in the Japanese horse and dark horse Capri, and the possibility of a new name springing out of somewhere, it would be foolish to bet on anything at present. I was 100% confident that Enable or Cracksman would win this year's Arc. Not any more.
Now slowly getting interested! Agree with Bayern Kenny, i.e. 'this could be the year of the Japanese', so going to check their entries because one of them might have a real chance in view of the muddled nature of this year's event, and October is a fair way off. Would be interested to learn what Boris thinks of the Nippon entries, as top European races seems to be his specialty. Well, he's not much at football! Just kidding, Boris...… OK, OK, just re-read everything, In the opening post QMII includes the five Japanese entries. This gives me a good start. Wonder which one(s) will eventually run? Will still be interesting to check the form and breeding of all these five horses, anyway. Good ground on the day will make any of them dangerous opponents?
