I hadnt realised what an outstanding record the younger generation have in the race. Last 15 years, 3yo's == 11 wins, 4yo's == 4 wins!
I think the draw is probably not that big a factor, in the sense that if Enable had been drawn in Box 20 you wouldn't be bothered about it that much. With everything else in the field having to up their game to match Enable however, you then have to take the view that you would have wanted YOUR horse to be in Trap 6 and Enable out in the high boxes to help even the odds slightly. Thinking about Enable and the bounce factor, I reckon she should be OK. They didn't rush her back and she had an easy win over Crystal Ocean, rather than being all out to win it. Gosden described her as being between 80% and 85% fit that day. For me it is telling that Stoute has decided not to take her on again with his colt, who would be better in at the weights in a rematch. Waldgeist was touted as a potential Epsom Derby colt in his 2YO season. I follow the French Racing pretty closely, concentrating on the better tracks for future potential winners. For me, Waldgeist's Derby hopes went down the pan when he was readily outpointed by Recoletos in the trail at Saint Cloud. I backed Recoletos at 10/1 for the French Derby after that race and to this day I don't think he stayed, as he was travelling like the winner, only to fold late, letting Waldgeist reverse form by 3 and a half lengths from the trial, only to be pipped by French Guineas winner Brametot, who I had backed ante post at 14/1 for that earlier classic. Waldgeist has not quite looked group 1 class to me, yes, he has won a group 1 race but it has not worked out well at all since and it's his win over Talismanic that saw the money coming for him. Talismanic is a funny old horse though and not one to trust implicitly for me. I just feel Waldgeist is underpriced now because this is such a weak renewal and the comments apply to Sea Of Class as well. There is likely to be one placed at huge odds this year but it is devilishly difficult to pick one with any real confidence. I the end I went with Patascoy each-way at 66/1 purely to have one at massive odds and hope that he may come through for a place after the more realistic challangers have tried to go with Enable and perhaps dropped back to let a more cannily ridden runner gobble a spot. Good luck all.
Has Olivier Peslier on top which is no bad thing. Not sure about the distance. Sire Wooton Basset was a sprinter with a sprinter pedigree. The dam has some stamina behind her though. Not raced beyond 1m2½f, so it's a question of will the stamina from the dam come through and produce improvement, or will he fail to stay? Based on his run against Knight To Behold I suspect he won't stay. Having said that Knight To Behold also beat Kew Gardens comfortably although that was on a fast surface and Kew Gardens will definitely stay
Patascoy has several questions, the most worrying would be the stamina but you don't get big odds without doubts and in a weak looking renewal I felt a few coppers at double carpet twice was worth a fun punt. The dam has not had anything very good yet but she did have one that won over 2m 2f on the jumps. Her sire "Winged Love" has sired numerous jumps horses, including Baywing, who won the Eider Chase over an extended 4 miles on Heavy going! We can dream that some of that stamina has filtered down the gene pool to Patascoy. Patascoy has been a slight positive on Oddschecker today but it's a real long shot for the crack really.
I've just gone with Talismanic as it's a huge price but obviously you'll need the principals to be off their game a bit. Still - it's the best race of the year so bring it on!
There have been some good 3YOs coming to the race in recent times, especially the fillies. This year looks different to me though. It says a lot that the Leger winner is the leading light amongst the 3YO colts and I feel the 3YO fillies have been moderate this year. Laurens has been tough and consistent, managing to win narrowly on several occasions. She's not a 12F though and Sea Of Class has been mastering some very ordinary O'Brien 3YO fillies in my opinion. If I were coming to the race now I would still take Enable at 11/10 for my main bet. I felt she looked bigger this season when watching her against Crystal Ocean. She dismissed him with the minimum of fuss. A few firms are going four places each-way. Sadly, I had to take 3 places to get 66/1 on Patascoy but he's generally half those odds now, so I'll just have to curse loudly if he's 4th.
Hope he’s not 4th mate 3rd, or 5th to save you from pain. I actually think Enable will win; but don’t mind backing Sea of Class e/w at best odds tomorrow, plus a few shekels win on the PMU; especially given who her sire is.
I think that Waldgeist will definitely start shorter than he is with the British bookies simply because he is the main local hope. I wonder how many British and Irish are heading across oblivious to the admission charges. The cheap areas might get quite crowded and the expensive areas might be roomy. If they are going over on a budget and then shell out €75 or more to get in, they will need favourable results before the Arc to actually have any Euros to back Enable or Sea Of Class. If the bookies have big liabilities on either of the English fillies, they are likely to shore them up to stop Sunday punters switching to the PMU so I do not see much drift in either of them.
In Berlin it is warm and sunny and I am sat in a beer garden sinking a few cold beers. I’m sure this is of no help whatsoever but I am loving it
Speak of the Devil. As I finished typing it has started to drizzle. According to the weather map it is just coming across us from the Atlantic and should reach Paris about 2am tomorrow. And already, as I type, it has turned to a light rain. It's hitting most of the South of England on its way here so what's it like over there?
In the isle of Anglesey it is blustery but balmy and extremely pleasant in the sunshine. Just off to Trearddur Bay for a kick about on the beach with the nipper followed by some quite exquisite ice cream. Flavours tbc. Cold beers will have to wait. Hope that helps Ron. Enable looks almost a cert but I smell some scope for ew thievery here. My modest speculation will be split between Talismanic @ 33s and Defoe @ 40s.
If it tips it down all morning at Longchamp tomorrow, on top of the watering, it could end up soft I suppose. In which case, unless Sea of Class is expected to relish the softer going (having only ever run on a sound surface), I can see her being an also ran or even withdrawn. Might be worth identifying which runners will appreciate the ground softening. Presumably Defoe will Enable will be reasonably happy Waldgeist won't mind Kew Gardens won't mind Talismatic will be happy Salouen the only time Salouen has run on soft he ran his best race so should be happy Study of Man, like Sea of Class has only run on a sound surface and could be withdrawn The ground at Ascot has gone from good/gf to soft. So if that happens in Paris I reckon Salouen at 66/1 is worth a tickle for a place. You can get over 200/1 on the Exchange (for a tenner) but can you bet for a place on the Exchange???
Sea Of Class was said to be hopeless on soft and I see some 13/2 on the boards about her now. John Gosden said Enable likes to get her toe in and it was pouring of rain during the actual race in the Epsom Oaks Enable won. I thought Rhododendron was travelling better that day but she didn't seem to last home and Enable drew away to win cosily in the end. Kew Gardens is one I would worry about on soft. Stablemate Nelson, who has become his pacemaker now, saw both Kew Gardens and Delano Roosevelt off when there was cut in the ground last year and Delano Roosevelt reversed form with Kew Gardens on soft ground when Saxon Warrior beat the pair in last year's Beresford. For me, Kew Gardens was at his best last season when readily disposing of Dee Ex Bee in the Zetland Stakes, when the ground was pretty fast. The 10F Zetland generally throws up strong stayers, as it is quite a test for 2YO's who generally don't go beyond a mile in their first season. I had a general feeling the most of Kew Gardens' races had not worked out well, so I decided to look back at them to see the stats. They read as follows:- Lingfield Derby Trial - Runs 14 Wins 1 Placed 1 Unplaced 12 Queens Vase - Runs 26 Wins 1 Placed 2 Unplaced 23 Grand Prix De Paris - Runs 8 Wins 0 Placed 0 Unplaced 8 Great Voltigeur - Runs 7 Wins 0 Placed 0 Unplaced 7 Obviously Kew Gardens went on to win the St Leger but the only race he was in that has worked out to any real extent is the Derby and Kew Gardens was a flop in that one, even if he did gain revenge with Knight To Behold from the Lingfield Derby Trial. Two wins from 55 subsequent runs in Kew Gardens' other races this season does not inspire too much confidence from me, especially if it does get softer.
