Quick Paris weather forecast update for those who like to factor probable going into their pre-race betting. One meteorological service (Accu.weather.com) is predicting practically no rain in the metropolitan area after tomorrow (Tuesday 22/9). From Sunday 27/9 to Sunday 4/10 (raceday) it actually predicts 0% precipitation for every day except the Monday and Tuesday, both forecast for 1%, and dry/bright/warm weather all week. Certainly forecasts aren't always right, and I imagine we all agree that it's a myth that Longchamps is invariably soft in October. But good-to-fast ground might make you review some of your theories, even if you think - as I do - that a fit and happy Treve can only get beaten by some biblical disaster, and I think Jarnet is too cool for that to include any real chance of pilot error. What's possibly more significant is the effect on the betting for the Abbaye and even on the participation of Mecca's Angel.
Fast ground is the only thing that would give Treve fans a worry I think. If you were Mr Tabor would you be tempted to let Legatissimo have a second crack at a mile and a half? She has had a wonderful season and an Arc defeat would lose none of her reputation?
My only worry about fast ground for Treve is that if she has to prepare for the race on it. Too much work on fast ground could scupper her chances but I very much doubt Criquet would risk that. Provided she goes to the post sound, I doubt any going will stop her in the race and, as she will probably be retired immediately after, she will have plenty of time to recover. Need to watch the gallop reports now. Not worth betting now at those odds anyway. I just hope she has a good preparation without the obvious risks associated with fast ground and goes to the post sound and comes back sound; hopefully having made history
Evening, TC. No reason why not, I suppose, if only on the grounds that you should never be afraid of one horse. My own view is that 10f is probably her maximum, and that, even if she stays, she'll be vulnerable to something with a Group 1 turn of foot. I'm also moving towards the view that the 2015 British 3yos (male and female) aren't a vintage lot. In a market without Treve, I'd want New Bay, who seems to be improving with every race.. The underlying reason for my earlier post was that there's an emerging theory (not on here) that it would be a smart idea to back Meccas' Angel ante-post - currently 3.6 on BF - on the basis that soft going on the day would see her at a very short price. You might chance that at double-figure prices, but when you're talking about a 5-2 shot, surely you've got to check out ground and draw overnight ? The upside just isn't big enough.
Rainer that's quite worrying actually. Not sure she's as invincible on proper quick ground. Can only hope the forecasters have it wrong, it wouldn't be the first time!
Experience tells me not to pay too much attention to the long range weather forecast when it comes to Arc weekend weather. I have got wet plenty of times when there was going to be no rain according to forecasts a few days before the racing. The ground at Longchamp will not be fast because they water their major tracks and they are certainly not going to let it get quick when that would be to the detriment of the home heroine. If there is not much rain then it will not be soft (or soft as we would call it in the UK/Ireland) but good ground. I would imagine that there are watered gallops available at the major French training centres just like we have them. As I am not interested in the ante post markets with less than two weeks to go, the state of the going will probably determine whether I support Ribbons in the Prix de l’Opera or Esoterique in the Prix de la Forêt on the day.
With Postponed now appearing to be a non starter for the Arc thanks to owner stupidity, Treve is odds on across the board. Given that we can expect one of Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs to be a no show as well, the front two in the betting can only get shorter.
Two and a half weeks to the race, no one in the entire world know what the weather will do between now and then. Those 14 day forecasts are a load of bollocks, days 1-4 are reasonably accurate but everything beyond is pure guesswork.
Not sure why the latter should make any difference. Even if they both ran, the belief is that Jack Hobbs would have no chance on fast ground and GH would have no chance on soft. Do the current odds assume good/good to soft going and both running?
Just checked; smallest 'Arc' field was seven runners in 1941. We are slowly moving to this number unless pacemakers line up. I suspect New Bay is likely to have a very decent pacemaker so that his closing 'kick' is accentuated. This may still not be enough to beat Treve. The going could now be the deciding factor; Golden Horn?
Interesting details in Equida (www.equida.fr) about Arc runners. Horses divided into four categories as below: Definite runners. Possible runners. Absentees. "Their names are circulating" Sorry I cannot upload directly to this post.
Sporting Life report Jack Hobbs unlikely to run http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...s-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-in-favour-of-ascot By Christ I'd love to see him jump a fence one day though
The first four in the bookies' betting were roughly Evens, 4/1, 7/1, 8/1. If you take out one of the pair that are 7/1 and 8/1, the odds on the remaining three will shorten.
You're probably right QM but I would think that anyone backing Treve or New Bay are backing them to beat either Jack Hobbs or Golden Horn. I can see that Golden Horn or Jack Hobbs would shorten once it is 100% certain which will actually run
If they end up with a single figure field, everyone will have a single figure draw, so that might eliminate any need to investigate this theory too deeply. As it is, Treve has got nearly half a stone in hand of most the entries on the official ratings and it was reported at the weekend that the owner is planning on supplementing a pacemaker for her, which makes me think that even if she gets the widest draw it will not be an excuse for getting beaten.
