They probably thought Henry Cecil might have grown a pair, and gone for the Prince of Wales with Frankel*
They probably thought they had got lucky . . . and then they realised it was the win market and not the place market.
Wouldn't surprise me. I remember some of the errors I made when I was first getting to grips with Betfair
I would value comments on the performance of Valyra in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly yesterday. She fairly easily accounted for Beauty Parlour who, in turn, beat the third and fourth by 3L and 4L respectively. Bearing in mind the usual French Arc preparation for a top class filly; mid season rest, Vermeille then Arc do my fellow contributors think 14/1 is a fair price. Bear in mind that, had Valyra not taken part in the Prix de Diane, the bookies would have carved up Beauty Parlour's odds for the Arc; say 8/1 tops!! Thoughts please.
In the main, what kind of history do 3 year old fillies have in the race, say over the last 20 years, last year aside?
Last 20 years 5yo Horse 1 4yo Filly 1 4yo Colt 3 3yo Filly 2 3yo Colt 13 Can do the last any number of years if you want
Would it be possible to add some context to that Ron? i.e. Number of runners, expected number of winners, etc.
Sorry Zen. I didn't see that question. Just noticed as I went to add this post. Have a look at this from last year. That's why they call me whatever they call me.
I went to the race in 2005 - Eurostar out on Friday and back monday morning. Spent 3 nights in a hotel. Brilliant time and had coach travel to and from the course. Could have gone racing on both days but preferred to spend the Saturday seeing Paris. Horse racing Abroad caters for many tastes so anyone who's interested may want to check
Dan, going out Friday and coming back Monday is great if you can take the two extra days. Most of the Arc day trips are South East-centric, so not ideal for those of us that live North of Watford. Travelling early Saturday returning Sunday night suits me best. I think that Horseracing Abroad are the crew that have on-course hospitality, so I imagine that going with them will cost a little more than the normal eight Euros admission.
Valyra is fair enough in the Arc betting at 14/1 after winning the Prix de Diane. The race was unsatisfactory and you are probably right that the until-then unbeaten Beauty Parlour would be virtually second favourite for the Longchamp showpiece had she won. The fact that she is only 16/1 suggests that one defeat does not make her a forlorn hope. Last season’s Arc heroine Danedream (16/1 from 12/1) failed to advertise her claims in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, won by the outsider of the four runners, Meandre (20/1 from 40/1). That form can be completely ignored as last year’s Arc runner-up Shareta (25/1) was forced to set a married man’s gallop and Galikova (33/1) was making her seasonal bow. I cannot complain about the quality of the small field but it was a typically French race. Camelot is still the best-priced 100/30 favourite but I am still inclined to think that he will be a no-show. Impressive Hardwicke winner Sea Moon interests me most at 14/1 ahead of a possible tilt at the King George, but I can still see the prize staying at home this year.
Further thoughts on Arc (-15 weeks): Orfevre wins Spring highlight by 2L which is quite a big winning distance in Japan however connections non commital over Arc. Dunaden (2nd to Sea Moon) owned by Sponsors of Arc interests me at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. Despite muddling Grand Prix de St Cloud No Risk At All who beat Meandre is available at 40/1; surely worth a small interest? Galikova running on in G P de St C also interests me at 33/1. I agree that Camelot is looking like a 'no show' until 2013; Coolmore relying on St Nicholas Abbey? I have already started my 'scatter gun' approach with a series of each way bets and will no doubt add/reinforce in the coming weeks so roll on the 7 October!
QM - I agree with all of that but I looked at is as a once in a lifetime trip so paid the extra. It's great if you can do it of course but yeah there are far cheaper options.
If Camelot is a no show in this then surely he has to go to Champions Day over 1m2f and take on Frankel. I know he's still a little untested (Camelot that is!) but assuming they're both still unbeaten that will be quite the curtain raiser and another show of support to what was last year the best flat days racing I've ever seen live.
I personally believe that you'd have to be mad to back Camelot at 100/30 this far from the race.* First of all what has he actually beaten? Im not saying he isn't classy, but I just don't think he beat alot in the Derby, and that was in someways proven in the 'Ascot Derby' Also the draw is vital at Longchamp, and if he is drawn high, unless he has loads in hand on the opposition, which I doubt, he will not be winning.* Not forgetting Joseph O'Brien is useless when it comes to rough big field races. Id be amazed if he can get the horse into a good position and then avoid trouble when making his challenge.* The horse I like the most at the prices is Sea Moon 14/1, his form doesn't look any worse than SNA, if we take a line through Red Cadeaux, yet he's 6 points bigger. He will no doubt have the services of Ryan Moore, and I'm sure under SMS this horse will continue to improve *
The Arc is really hard to know at the moment. I tell you one nice antepost IMO though. Michaelangelo for the St Leger
I dont know if anyone knows or has mentioned this horse but I would like to put forward a German horse called Novellist at 25/1 before he wins the German Derby. If you havent seen him, here he is, blue sleeves with yellow cap. [video=youtube;8K89tx2ADIU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K89tx2ADIU[/video] [video=youtube;A-ePYNtdH94]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-ePYNtdH94[/video]
