If the supplementary entry stage isn't until Thursday 3rd then the draw won't be before Friday. I'd guess Friday, they'll want to get it out of the way before Saturday racing . Edit: I realise this is an old link from 2009 but it seems news of the draw broke on the Friday morning before the race: http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/oct/02/sea-the-stars-prix-arc-triomphe
Cheers Oddy It was on Friday in 2011 too so I think we have solved it. My household are all very sweet on Ruler Of The World so we are crossing fingers he isn't drawn out with the washing.. His price is huge given that without his Irish Derby effort, he would deserve to be unbeaten. The way he quickened up at Longchamp having been boxed in was very promising. He also stays the trip well and looks to appreciate a bit of give in the ground. He was also a good Derby winner- a clear winner who quickened up the best of the lot. I wonder, if he was 2/1 fav for the Derby, maybe we would look at his form with more substance? He is a rare Ballydoyle horse that could potentially be underrated for once. The principlees in the market are smart but Ruler Of The World is pretty uncomplicated- if he could get first run ans a clear passage, would you be totally confident of the top 3 or 4 in the betting catching him? I think he has a couple of lengths up his sleeve on Kizuna, who travels well but doesn't look a strong finisher.
Final declarations for the Arc are on Friday (4th October), so the draw will be made at that point. The weather forecast for Paris this week shows that rain is expected on Thursday and substantial further rain on Friday with showers on Saturday, so followers of The Fugue can probably forget a trip to Longchamp and those of us with ante post considerations on Flintshire are unlikely to be collecting on Monday morning. The forecast for Sunday in Paris is broken sunshine (i.e. cloudy) and around fourteen to twenty degrees temperature.
At the first forfeit stage for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the following twenty-one have stood their ground: Very Nice Name – 4yo – A. De Mieulle Novellist (IRE) – 4yo – A. Wohler Camelot (GB) – 4yo – A. O’Brien Al Kazeem (GB) – 5yo – R. Charlton Joshua Tree (IRE) – 6yo – E. Dunlop Orfevre (JPN) – 5yo – Y. Ikee Going Somewhere (BRZ) – 4yo – D. Smaga Yellow And Green (GB) –4yo – N. Clement Haya Landa – 5yo – Mme L. Audon The Fugue (GB) – 4yo – J. Gosden Pirika (IRE) – 5yo – A. Fabre Flintshire (GB) – 3yo – A. Fabre Manndawi – 3yo – A. De Royer Dupre Ocovango (GB) – 3yo – A. Fabre Iniciar (GER) – 3yo – W. Giedt Penglai Pavilion (USA) – 3yo – A. Fabre Kizuna (JPN) – 3yo – S. Sasaki Kingsbarns (IRE) – 3yo – A. O’Brien Ruler Of The World (IRE) – 3yo – A. O’Brien Sahawar – 3yo – C. Ferland Intello (GER) – 3yo – A. Fabre Notable drop outs include Wild Coco, Trading Leather, Triple Threat, Meandre, Pastorius, Morandi and several O’Brien horses such as Battle Of Marengo, Mars and Magician. Strangely there is a second forfeit stage on Wednesday before supplementary entries on Thursday and final declarations on Friday. At the time of writing, the betting on Oddschecker was still listing prices for lots that have defected. We pretty much know the ones that are going to be added.
The current running order stated on the France Galop website is as follows: 13:45 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp 14:20 Prix Marcel Boussac (Criterium Des Pouliches) 14:55 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) 15:30 Prix de l’Opera 16:15 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 17:00 Arabian World Cup (pure arabians) 17:40 Prix de la Foret 18:10 Prix Du Cadran 18:40 Grand Handicap Des Milers Be warned that they have been known to swap the race order around in the past according to the size of the fields and note that these times are local time (BST +1), so the Arc will be at 3:15 in Blighty.
The best odds for the Arc (src: Oddschecker) now look as follows, quoting only horses that are entered or that we know are being supplemented: 5/2 Orfevre 9/2 Treve 11/2 Novellist 9/1 Kizuna 12/1 Intello, Ruler Of The World 14/1 Flintshire 16/1 Al Kazeem 20/1 Leading Light 25/1 The Fugue, Ocovango 50/1 Camelot, Penglai Pavilion, Kingsbarns, Manndawi 66/1 Very Nice Name, Joshua Tree 100/1 Yellow And Green, Going Somewhere, Haya Landa, Pirika, Sahawar, Iniciar Given that the field is normally limited to twenty runners, it looks likely that three of the outsiders are going to be ‘balloted out’.
thanks for that Quarter Moon good to see channel 4 covering it this year. looks as thought the Abbeye will be shown as a replay though
At the second forfeit stage for the Arc, the German outsider Iniciar dropped out, so there are now just twenty left before the expected additions of Treve and Leading Light at the supplementary entry stage. When the final declarations are made on Friday, a couple of the outsiders may get 'balloted out' and I wonder whether they have been left in the race because they will get their entry fees refunded (as they would in Britain).
5/2 Orfevre before we know the draw. Jesus. Who is taking that price? Who was taking the 3/1 to force the price down? Unbelievable. I do like the Arc though. It's the closest the flat gets to a Cheltenham style race in that all these horses who don't go near each other all season come together to face off. It's the only flat race of importance that I get excited about year in year out.
I agree you Bob. If you can get Treve at 5s that makes more sense because everything she has done has been great. Orfevre is in with a much tougher field this year and 5/2 is short if he decides he wants to run around or idle again. He is going to be ridden quietly quietly. Caught some prep races last night. Treve looks a real class act. Orfevre had the weakest field but visually impressive (probably explains the price). Ruler Of The World is a standout bet at 14/1 for me guys. He was easily the best in our Derby, he has a turn of foot, and he likes a touch of cut in the ground. Flintshire one to watch if the rain stays away. That was a decent trial- Kizuna/Ruler/Flintshire all facing off. I suspect that is the trial that goes underrated.
Yep, Ofevre, at 2’s or even 5/2, far too short in my opinion as well. Also he has a major negative trend to overcome. People, in the past 25 years horses who have previously been beaten in Arc have returned to the race on 60 occasions. And all 60, I say all 60, were beaten! There was a very good discussion piece in yesterday’s ‘Weekender’ re what the price will be available re several beasts in Sunday’s race on the old Pari-Mutuel machine. Past history indicates that the Japanese pair and the French pin-up girl and darling, Treve, will be supported off the boards here and therefore other horses, bar the coupled ones, should be available at huge odds- perhaps up to double those offered by UK based bookie chappies. Novelist (currently 11/2 here) and Al Kazeem (16’s) are 2 examples of horses who could be much bigger on the day on France’s ‘magic machine’.
Do you mean the weight of money for Deep Impact??? Hasn't it been the case that the old Japs have steamed into all their fancied runners, on the French machine, since they started sending over serious contestants for the Arc.
I think I am right in saying that when Deep Impact ran in the Arc, he actually ended up an odds-on favourite on the PMU because the Japanese had a direct feed into the market (plus the PMU deduction is about twenty per cent). The Japanese will ignore the fact that history is against Orfevre and pile on and I do not think that this year the race looks much hotter than last year: Treve is the only standout three year old and Novellist is the best older horse save the favourite. I am expecting Sunday to be just like it was in 2006. There were about five thousand Japanese swelling the crowd that year and most of them arrived as soon as the gates opened at 11:00am; hence they ran out of racecards and had to get somebody to photocopy the A3 sheets with the fields on so that us latecomers (arrived about 12:30) knew what was running! There have been three supplementary entries made into the Arc field: Treve and Leading Light as expected, but also Meandre has been added. The field is now down to nineteen as Camelot, Yellow And Green, Manndawi and Kingsbarns have all disappeared from the entries on the France Galop website.
I could never understand why he was entered, let alone left in at the last declaration stage; that was a surprise.
In last year’s race, Camelot was the supposed superstar, which looks quite laughable now. With both him and Kingsbarns removed, the Aidan O’Brien challenge is now down to two; whilst Andre Fabre leads the home challenge with five. On Monday, I expect that this year’s supposed superstar Kingsbarns will be ante post favourite for the 2014 race! I am not sure why The Fugue held entries in the Arc and the Prix de l’Opera since she could only run in one and if the ground was against her she would miss both. The Paris weather forecast has changed quite substantially in the last few days and there is no longer rain forecast for Friday and it looks fair for the whole weekend. That is good news for fans of The Fugue and Flintshire.
